King's Plate fair odds: Casse filly has value in competitive classic
There are two races a year that get me really excited as a superfecta player, and both happen to be the first jewel of their home nation's Triple Crown series.
The Kentucky Derby, of course, is an exotics player's dream with up to 20 horses and the largest wagering pools in the Western hemisphere. The King's Plate, which has its 166th running on Saturday at Woodbine, is similar. With 13 horses entered for the 1 1/4-mile classic on the synthetic surface, the 24,024 superfecta combinations is more than double the opportunity in an 11-horse field.
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And this year's King's Plate looks to be an especially tough puzzle. Horse Racing Nation's proprietary morning-line model projects no horse shorter than 3-1 and half the field in the 6-1 and 10-1 range. Of course, we will not want to use all of the short prices, but if we correctly identify who to lean on while tossing the other relatively short prices, then that allows us to reach to some of those 20-1, 30-1 or even 50-1 horses who can crash the superfecta party in races such as this.
For the former, I like Woodbine Oaks winner No Time, who ran beyond 1 1/16 miles for the first time when going 1 1/8 miles in the Oaks. She was much the best in the there when drawing off to a 3 3/4-length lead after a decisive move heading into the stretch.
John Velazquez returns for the King's Plate engagement, and with another stretch out to 1 1/4 miles for this Not This Time filly, I would not be surprised if the Hall of Fame jockey has her a bit closer to the pace. One reservation I have related to value is that on days like this, the public is likely to overvalue the fillies-against-males storyline, even though that's old hat in the King's Plate. Plus the filly has renowned connections, including owner Gary Barber and dual Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse.
So I will be prepared for her not to offer value in the win pool, but I do think this is the type of race people will want to spread. So she is a single for me in bets such as the all-stakes $5 The King's & Queen's Pick 3, which also includes the King Edward and E. P. Taylor Stakes.
Long-shot-wise, the other Casse for Barber is Ashley's Archer, and he took a decent step forward off a layoff to be second in an entry-level, optional-claming allowance. Casse might be out of time to have this one in top shape for this challenge, but that last race was on par with his lifetime best. If he can move forward at this distance then he is in the mix, and the price will be right.
The King's Plate post position draw is Tuesday at Woodbine. I'll update with final thoughts after knowing posts and formulate my $5 Pick 3 strategy later this week.