Fair odds: Vulnerable favorite starts Pick 6 at Woodbine

When Woodbine cancelled the back half of its King's Plate card Saturday, it postponed not only its marquee event to Friday, Aug. 23, but also several stakes and fantastic wagering opportunities.

All five stakes from the original King's Plate day are on Friday's King's Plate card, with four of them in the mandatory-payout Pick 6 that begins with the Grade 2 King Edward Stakes as race 7.

One of my favorite expressions as a multi-race bettors is "know us early," referring to wagers made when I take a significant stand in leg 1. Sometimes that means singling and other times that means going against an obvious favorite. It's the latter this week.

Filo Di Arianna won this race in 2022 and jockey Kazushi Kimura is 3-for-3 on the Drosselmeyer gelding. Filo Di Arianna snapped a six-race win streak and won for the first time since the 2022 King Edward with a victory in the Highlander Stakes sprinting on turf last out.

Of course he can win, but more than 50 percent of the time as the 4-5 morning line suggests? Not even close. Based on my fair odds of 2-1, I'm going to lose a third of the time, but that's worth a gamble considering the expected price.

Interestingly enough, the horse I like best also went on a losing streak after winning the King Edward. War Bomber won this race last year before losing his next five starts. His last-out race back on turf was an improvement off his 6-year-old debut. I expect his sustained run to have more of an impact here, in his third time off the layoff.

Cruden Bay has been first or second in 10 of his last 11 efforts, including a win over War Bomber in the Connaught Cup last out. He is in the mix for sure, but I am a little nervous about his closing style picking up 3 pounds against these. At the expected prices, though, he is my clear second choice, and I will likely use both Cruden Bay and War Bomber to start the pick 6.

As for betting the race on its own, I'll use the longer price between Cruden Bay and War Bomber and back it up with an exacta box with a slight press on the combination with the shorter price on top.

Coverage of the King's Plate card by Horse Racing Nation is made possible in part through a marketing partnership with Woodbine Entertainment.