Key scratches impact the pace of 2020 Kentucky Derby Day stakes

Handicappers burned the midnight oil reading their racing forms all week to handicap a fantastic day of stakes action at Churchill Downs on 2020 Kentucky Derby Saturday. In many cases, all that hard work was for naught, as key scratches on Saturday morning completely changed the complexion of 4 of the 7 stakes races. Below I take a look at who should be moved up and moved down in your wagering strategies based on the new expected pace scenario of each race.

Pat Day Mile (Race 9)

Pace scratches: Cezanne, No Parole

Who it helps: Vertical Threat, Tap it to Win

Who it hurts: Rushie, Sonneman

The Pat Day Mile traditionally has a hot early pace, but that won't be the case this year as two of the main speeds were withdrawn. Vertical Threat and Tap it to Win now should be part of a much slower early pace. Both runners fit and could have a big say in this race. Rushie was going to get a dream setup here before scratches, but now will lay closer than anticipated early. Sonneman's only chance to win was a pace collapse, and he is now hoping for a minor award. Likely favorite Echo Town is versatile enough to work out a trip regardless of the pace and still figures strongly.

Distaff Turf Mile (Race 11)

Pace scratches: Harmless, She'sonthewarpath

Who it helps: Newspaperofrecord

Who it hurts: Daddy is Legend, Beau Recall

Newspaperofrecord was going to be tough to beat in this spot regardless, but the scratch of her main pace threat, Harmless, makes her a pretty safe single in here. She should be able to make an easy lead and is simply too talented when she is on her game for this bunch. She'sonthewarpath would have applied token pressure while tracking, but she is out as well. Daddy is a Legend and Beau Recall have huge late kicks but will not be able to catch the loose Newspaperofrecord without some help.

Derby City Distaff (Race 12)

Pace scratches: Mia Mischief, Lady Kate

Who it helps: Serengeti Empress

Who it hurts: Ce Ce, Bell's the One

No horse was a bigger winner from Saturday's changes than Serengeti Empress. She needs the lead to be at her best and would have been pressed hard, similar to her last effort, to make the lead. The talented Mia Mischief was going to have to gun it early from the rail, and Lady Kate would have put pressure on Serengeti Empress as well. Lady Kate was scratched to run in the La Troienne on Friday and ran a huge second to Monomoy Girl. Serengeti Empress now should get away with the slowest fractions she has set in a long time as 30-1 shot Shesomajestic is the only other true speed. Ce Ce, who looks very live on the cutback in this spot, appeared to be positioned perfectly before scratches. She can still win, but her job just became much more difficult. The same can be said for the talented deep closer Bell's the One. She needs a swift pace to be at her best and might no longer get the setup she desires.

Kentucky Derby (Race 14)

Pace scratches: Art Collector (before the draw), King Guillermo

Who it helps: Authentic, Tiz the Law, Ny Traffic

Who it hurts: Enforceable, Sole Volante, Max Player

Many people handicapped the Derby before the post draw, so I'll include Art Collector in here. Art Collector and King Guillermo are two talented and tactical runners that had a chance to make serious noise in the Derby. With them out of the race, this suddenly has become a fairly paceless Derby. This greatly hinders the chances of deep closers Enforceable, Sole Volante and Max Player. Just because they get to run farther does not mean their late kick will be more effective if they do not get a hot pace. Authentic should be able to set the pace at his terms now and becomes more dangerous if he can get this distance, which is a huge question mark. Ny Traffic almost caught Authentic going shorter and should be close behind early after scratches. The fewer horses for favorite Tiz the Law to deal with the better, as it seems a bad trip could be the only thing to get him beat. He has the tactical speed to lay close.