Kentucky Turf Cup 2022: Odds and analysis

The Grade 2, $1 million Kentucky Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs on Saturday attracted a field of 13 older males set to go 1 1/2 miles. The race offers a “win and you’re in” spot in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Gufo for trainer Christophe Clement was made the 7-5 morning line favorite based on his victory in the Sword Dancer (G1) just two weeks ago. The win at Saratoga was the ninth of the 5-year-old’s career and upped his career earnings to just $17,000 shy of $2 million.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Kentucky Turf Cup, which will be run at 5:45 p.m. EDT as race 10, with the official track morning-line odds.

1. Red Knight (15-1 – Pure Prize – Mike Maker / Gerardo Corrales – 28: 9-8-1 - $893,258) The 8-year-old won his first start of the year in the Colonial Cup at Colonial Downs going 1 1/2 miles with Lasix. Prior to the victory in Virginia, Red Knight was the winner of the Sycamore (G3) at Keeneland which also came with Lasix. He ran second in the Kentucky Turf Cup in 2020. All Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series races are without Lasix, so Red Knight will race without the medication as he did when he was second in the Louisville (G3) in 2021. Top Choice.

2. Breakpoint (15-1 – Constitution – Neil Drysdale / Tyler Baze – 10: 6-0-0 - $286,163) Breakpoint got his first American victory in the San Juan Capistrano (G3) at Santa Anita in June. His previous five wins were in Chile in 2020 where he began his career. Last year he was seventh in the Turf Cup. Toss.

3. Temple (6-1 – Temple City – Mike Maker / Jose Ortiz – 36: 7-8-8 - $668,363) Temple is the second of three horses entered in the race for Maker. He claimed this 6-year-old last in November at Aqueduct for $80,000. His last four starts were in graded stakes with a win in the Mac Diarmida (G2) at Gulfstream Park in March. Last seen, Temple was third beaten by only 1 1/2 lengths in the United Nations (G1) at Monmouth Park. Win contender.

4. Arklow (7-2 – Arch – Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 37: 9-9-2 - $3,012,246) The 8-year-old Arklow made his 2022 debut at Saratoga in the Bowling Green (G2) where he rallied to finish second after he got blocked and had to alter course. He won the Turf Cup in 2020 and last year he was second just a neck from winning the race again. Florent Geroux gets back on board looking to win this race again. Win contender.

5. Keystone Field (30-1 – Candy Ride – Mike Maker / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 18: 4-2-3 - $220,773) The 7-year-old will make his first start in a stakes race of any kind after racing in allowances at Churchill Downs in his last three races and those were all on the main track. He had a win on the grass at Santa Anita in a $25,000 claimer. Toss.

6. Glynn County (30-1 – Kitten’s Joy – Mike Maker / Vincent Cheminaud – 23: 4-1-4 - $446,193) He is still looking for his first win in a stakes race although he was third in the Fort Marcy (G2) at Belmont Park in May. His last victory was in June of 2021 in an allowance at Churchill. He was eighth in the United Nations (G1) and sixth in the Monmouth (G3) this summer. The son of Kitten’s Joy was third in a Saratoga allowance just nine days ago. Toss.

7. Admissions Office (10-1 – Point of Entry – Brian Lynch / John Velaquez – 20: 5-5-3 - $589,372) Now a 7-year-old, Admissions Office was a winner of the Arlington (G3) at Churchill in June. Most recently, he was sixth in the Arlington Million (G1) in its initial running at Churchill Downs. John Velazquez, who rode Admissions Office in his last win, gets back on board. This will be his first start at Kentucky Downs. Use underneath.

8. Gufo (7-5 – Declaration of War – Christophe Clement / Joel Rosario – 19: 9-3-5 - $1,983,030) Gufo got back to the winner’s circle with a perfect closing trip in the Sword Dancer (G1) just two weeks ago. Gufo won that race in 2021 also along with the Pan American (G2) at Gulfstream in April. This will be his first start at Kentucky Downs and regular rider Joel Rosario retains the mount. The one to beat.

9. Who’s the Star (20-1 – Tonalist – Mark Casse / Julien Leparoux – 13: 4-1-2 - $177,959) This 4-year-old ships down from Woodbine with two wins in his only two starts on turf. Mark Casse switched him to the grass and he responded with an allowance victory and then a last-to-first win in the Niagara at the end of July. Live longshot.

10. Another Mystery (15-1 – Temple City – Chris Block / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 29: 8-4-3 - $495,500) This Illinois-bred was second in the Colonial Cup after having a bit of trouble early in the race and then battled to hold second-place. In June, Another Mystery won a state-bred stakes at Hawthorne. He raced exclusively in stakes and will make his first start at Kentucky Downs. Toss.

11. Rogue Element (30-1 – Honor Code – Jeff Hines / Adam Beschizza – 18: 2-2-1 - $100,452) Rogue Element broke his maiden as a 5-year-old in April at Keeneland for a $20,000 tag. He has two starts on the turf with a starter allowance victory at Churchill in June. Toss.

12. Highest Honors (12-1 – Tapit – Chad Brown / Tyler Gaffalione – 13: 4-1-4 - $300,523) Brown moved Highest Honors to the turf during the winter at Gulfstream where he won an allowance. In his last two starts he was third in both the Louisville and the Grand Couturier. Highest Honors has been training in Kentucky as part of Brown’s string at Churchill. Use underneath.

13. Militarist (20-1 – Liam’s Map – Carlo Vaccarezza / Jose Lezcano – 13: 2-2-2 - $192,655) He is relegated to the also-eligible list and would need a scratch to make the field.

Summary: A $1 million purse and a full field of 12 going 1 1/2 miles on the tricky turf course at Kentucky Downs makes for a race where there are several horses with big odds that must be considered.

Gufo is the horse to beat in the Kentucky Turf Cup but he certainly offers no value as the 7-5 morning line favorite. He got a perfect trip to win the Sword Dancer for the second time just two weeks ago.

Accordingly, I will recommend five horses that range in odds from 7-2 to 20-1 for the trifecta. Trainer Mike Maker is always dangerous at Kentucky Downs as is jockey Tyler Gaffalione. Red Knight and Temple come from the Maker barn and Highest Honors is a Chad Brown and Gaffalione longshot. Arklow, who excels in this race, had an excellent prep at Saratoga in his first start of the year for Brad Cox. Mark Casse moved Who’s the Star to the turf and he won twice at Woodbine and comes with 12-1 morning line odds.