Kentucky Oaks scenarios: What fillies must do to clinch entries
Like Kentucky Derby 2025, the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks has about half its field set. Unlike the Derby, the Oaks has a 6-for-6 favorite in Good Cheer already locked in, but it will not have a last-chance race next weekend after its major preps are done in the coming days.
The Gazelle (G3) at Aqueduct and devalued Santa Anita Oaks (G2) on Saturday will be followed Monday by the rain-delayed Ashland (G1) at Keeneland. And that will be it. A 14-horse field will be penciled into place for the May 2 run for the lilies.
Seven 3-year-old fillies are mathematically assured of invitations. They include Davona Dale (G2) runner-up La Cara, who races for trainer Mark Casse in the Ashland.
Three-time graded-stakes winner Tenma, trainer Bob Baffert’s even-money, morning-line favorite in the Santa Anita Oaks, needs only a top-three finish Saturday in a race where the points have been devalued 25% because it has only five would-be starters.
Otherwise the winner from each of the preps and the second-place finisher in the Ashland will be assured of a place in the Kentucky Oaks starting gate.
The mathematical cutline is 51 points. Virginia Oaks winner Fondly, who has 50 points is on the qualifying bubble with connections waiting to see what happens Saturday in the Middle East. Queen Azteca, who also has 50 points, races against the boys in the UAE Derby (G2). Since that race has been moved off the main Kentucky Derby trail, points are not transferable to the Kentucky Oaks standings. But the money counts, and if Queen Azteca finishes in the top six, she would pass Fondly in non-restricted stakes earnings which are the first tiebreaker.
Of course, even that comes with a rather simple hitch in the get-along. Queen Azteca is not nominated for the Kentucky Oaks. Neither are six other fillies racing in their final U.S. preps. If any were to make the top 14, connections would have to pay a $1,500 late nomination fee by the close of business Wednesday to get in the gate in 27 days.
These are the clinch scenarios for the Kentucky Oaks showing what horses need to do in their final preps to get in. Horses not yet nominated are marked with an x.
| Kentucky Oaks 2025 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinched | Rank | Points | *Earnings | Final prep |
| Quietside | 1st | 168.00 | $902,200 | |
| Good Cheer | 2nd | 145.00 | $785,470 | |
| Five G | 3rd | 125.00 | $348,140 | |
| Simply Joking | 4th | 70.00 | $288,000 | |
| Bless the Broken | 5th | 67.50 | $238,060 | |
| Drexel Hill | 6th | 57.00 | $127,000 | |
| La Cara | 7th | 51.75 | $331,945 | Mon., Ashland (G1), KEE |
| Top 6 clinches | ||||
| Queen Azteca | x | 50.00 | $130,704 | Sat., UAE Derby (G2), MEY |
| Top 3 clinches | ||||
| Tenma | 13th | 33.00 | $384,000 | Sat., SA Oaks (G2), SA |
| Top 2 clinches | ||||
| Muhimma | 15th | 25.00 | $177,500 | Mon., Ashland (G1), KEE |
| Admit | 16th | 25.00 | $62,300 | Mon., Ashland (G1), KEE |
| Early On | 17th | 25.00 | $50,000 | Sat., Gazelle (G3), AQU |
| Amarth | 18th | 25.00 | $41,000 | Mon., Ashland (G1), KEE |
| Take Charge Milady | 19th | 20.00 | $192,500 | Mon., Ashland (G1), KEE |
| Running Away | 20th | 20.00 | $68,750 | Mon., Ashland (G1), KEE |
| Vodka With a Twist | 21st | 18.00 | $590,250 | Sat., SA Oaks (G2), SA |
| Ballerina d’Oro | 22nd | 16.25 | $74,375 | Sat., Gazelle (G3), AQU |
| Look Forward | 23rd | 15.00 | $112,500 | Mon., Ashland (G1), KEE |
| Supa Speed | 24th | 12.50 | $52,500 | Mon., Ashland (G1), KEE |
| Deloraine | 26th | 6.00 | $10,000 | Sat., Gazelle (G3), AQU |
| Win clinches | ||||
| Silent Law | x | 3.00 | $87,460 | Sat., SA Oaks (G2), SA |
| Pure Beauty | x | 0.00 | $0 | Sat., Gazelle (G3), AQU |
| Vanilla Sundae | x | 0.00 | $0 | Sat., Gazelle (G3), AQU |
| Diriyah | x | 0.00 | $0 | Sat., Gazelle (G3), AQU |
| No Bad Beats | x | 0.00 | $0 | Sat., SA Oaks (G2), SA |
| Madame Secretary | 0.00 | $0 | Sat., SA Oaks (G2), SA | |
| Not yet | ||||
| Fondly | 8th | 50.00 | $150,000 | |
| Need help | ||||
| Ahavah | 9th | 50.00 | $80,000 | |
| Anna’s Promise | x | 50.00 | $55,000 | |
| Runnin N Gunnin | 10th | 45.00 | $214,500 | |
| Gowells Delight | 11th | 41.50 | $118,000 | |
| Quickick | 12th | 34.00 | $329,000 | |
| Her Laugh | 14th | 30.00 | $88,000 | |
| Liam in the Dust | 25th | 8.00 | $95,450 | |
| *non-restricted stakes | ||||
| x not nominated |