Kentucky Oaks odds and analysis: A worthy favorite
With a field of 14 fillies ready to compete in the $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs on Saturday, handicappers need to make hard decisions.
Malathaat starts as the morning line favorite with an undefeated 4-for-4 record, but the question is whether her form appears strong enough to trust her against new faces in this spot, such as the co-second choices Travel Column and Search Results.
The Kentucky Oaks is carded as Race 11 with a post time of 5:51 p.m EDT.
1. Pauline’s Pearl, 20-1 (Tapit – Steven Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr. – 5: 2-1-1 - $461,500): Pauline’s Pearl took the Fantasy Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn by one length over Ava’s Grace in second and Coach off a stalking trip with a relatively high 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Two starts ago, though, Pauline’s Pearl lost to Will’s Secret in the Honeybee Stakes (G3). Will’s Secret was no match for Malathaat and Pass the Champagne in the Ashland Stakes (G1), but Pauline’s Pearl also was compromised by the pace in the Honeybee. For what it is worth, Pauline's Pearl’s dam Hot Dixie Chick is a half-sister to 2017 Kentucky Derby champion Always Dreaming. The rail post is no bargain, as she figures to eat dirt in mid-pack. Consider her for the bottom slots. Use underneath.
2. Maracuja, 20-1 (Honor Code – Rob Atras/Kendrick Carmouche – 4: 1-2-1 - $119,600): Value-seekers might note Maracuja was only 2 3/4 lengths behind Search Results in the Gazelle Stakes (G3). Search Results is 3-1 in this field, while Maracuja starts at a tempting 20-1 with a competitive 104 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Given her closing style, she will need some pace ahead of her. Regardless, Maracuja works as an option for the bottom slots of trifectas and superfectas. Use underneath.
3. Clairiere, 5-1 (Curlin – Steven Asmussen/Tyler Gaffalione – 4: 2-2-0 - $350,492): Clairiere deserves a pass for losing to Travel Column in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) because of the lack of pace. Souper Sensational set fractions of 24.35 and 48.64 with Travel Column nearby. Clairiere made a move from a few lengths back in seventh and lost by only 2 3/4 lengths to Travel Column. Two starts ago, Clairiere beat Travel Column by a neck in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) with a 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Three starts ago, Travel Column beat Clairiere by a length in the Golden Rod Stakes (G2). The difference now is that Clairiere offers higher odds at roughly the same ability. For that reason, Clairiere is the more attractive option between her and Travel Column. Win contender.
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4. Crazy Beautiful, 15-1 (Liam’s Map – Kenneth McPeek/Jose Ortiz – 7: 3-3-0 - $388,365): Well, she won the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) by 2 1/4 lengths. But Crazy Beautiful only shows a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the victory. She does make her third start off the bench and ran a couple of triple-digit TimeformUS figures last year. But the distance is also a concern for this daughter of Liam’s Map and an Indian Charlie mare. Given the large field, handicappers need to make cuts somewhere. Toss.
5. Pass the Champagne, 15-1 (Flatter – George Weaver/Javier Castellano – 3: 1-2-0 - $115,170): She almost put the Ashland Stakes (G1) field away in the stretch. After opening up by two lengths, though, Malathaat ran her down in the stretch. Not getting the job done with a two-length advantage is a concern. Otherwise, Pass the Champagne was promising in her graded stakes debut and put up a competitive 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She owns useful tactical speed as well for Javier Castellano to place her in a close stalking position. As a final selling point, Pass the Champagne offers intriguing value at 15-1 for a filly who barely lost to Malathaat, if those odds actually hold. Live long shot.
6. Travel Column, 3-1 (Frosted – Brad Cox/Florent Geroux – 5: 3-1-1 - $509,184): Travel Column has been sparring with Clairiere in their last few starts. In their most recent meeting, Travel Column won and beat Clairiere by 2 3/4 lengths with a 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She had the benefit of a slow pace up front, though, while Clairiere’s closing style made her compromised. Two starts ago, Travel Column lost to Clairiere in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2). Travel Column also ran third to Simply Ravishing in the Alcibiades Stakes (G1) last fall. In summary, Travel Column does not offer an undefeated record as Malathaat does and continues to post average speed figures, which are competitive here only because this crop is slow. Those facts make 3-1 hard to accept in this field. Although Travel Column can win, for value reasons, Clairiere is the better option. Win contender.
7. Ava’s Grace, 50-1 (Laoban – Robertino Diodoro/David Cohen – 4: 1-1-2 - $156,400): Similar to Pauline’s Pearl, Ava’s Grace also shows a 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure for her Fantasy Stakes effort. The concern is that she had no reason to give up the lead. Pauline’s Pearl outran her in the stretch and won. Now, Ava’s Grace stretches out to nine furlongs and it seems unlikely the distance benefits her. Even though the 107 on TimeformUS obviously fits against this slow group, in a large field such as this, the cuts need to come somewhere. Toss.
8. Moraz, 30-1 (Empire Maker – Michael McCarthy/Flavien Prat – 5: 1-1-3 - $133,640): Watching the replay of the Santa Ysabel Stakes (G3), there was no reason for Moraz to give up the lead to Beautiful Gift in the last few moments. Even though Moraz ran a respectable 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure, it is not a great sign to see a horse clear in the stretch and then give up the lead to a closer. Then in the Santa Anita Oaks (G2), Moraz made an even bigger fade to third by 5 3/4 lengths with a 92 on TimeformUS. This is a tough spot to rebound off a bad race. Toss.
9. Coach, 50-1 (Commissioner – Brad Cox/Luis Saez – 7: 3-1-2 - $224,740): Although Coach made a mild move to finish third in the Fantasy by 1 3/4 lengths with a 105 on TimeformUS, this is probably an overmatched filly. Why not take the winner Pauline‘s Pearl instead? On the morning line, Pauline’s Pearl offers 20-1. If Coach stays at 50-1 or higher, that might sound tempting too. But she lacks a win since the Rags to Riches Stakes last October and her other speed figures are slow. Toss.
10. Malathaat, 5-2 (Curlin – Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez – 4: 4-0-0 - $412,150): The undefeated favorite Malathaat won the Ashland Stakes (G1) with a 106 TimeformUS Speed Figure over Pass the Champagne, who had briefly cleared. From watching her Demoiselle Stakes (G2) win last December, she likely needs to stay outside and in the clear to take her best shot. Malathaat draws outside here, and she does own tactical speed if Velazquez wants to clear the middle pack and take up a close stalking position. Malathaat‘s second dam Dream Rush was a sprinter, but the influences of Curlin and A.P. Indy balance out the pedigree. The first dam Dreaming of Julia ran fourth in the 2013 edition of this race. She is the top selection based on her record and likelihood of a clear trip from this post. The pick.
11. Will’s Secret, 30-1 (Will Take Charge – Dallas Stewart/Jon Court – 7: 3-0-3 - $383,300): After a nice string of victories, including the Martha Washington Stakes and Honeybee Stakes (G3), Will’s Secret was no threat to Malathaat and Pass the Champagne in the Ashland Stakes (G1). In fact, Will’s Secret lost a little bit of ground in the stretch as the two fillies in front put on a show at Keeneland. Still, the pedigree is good for nine furlongs and Dallas Stewart knows how to hit the board in these kinds of races with long shots. Throw her in trifectas and superfectas. Use underneath.
12. Search Results, 3-1 (Flatter – Chad Brown/Irad Ortiz Jr. – 3: 3-0-0 - $299,000): Search Results won the Gazelle Stakes (G3) in a notable final time of 1:54.14, faster than Modernist’s 1:54.38 for winning the Excelsior Stakes (G3) one race earlier. Maybe the two races are not fair to compare, as the Excelsior had crawling fractions and that kind of pace generally leads to a distorted figure. Regardless, TimeformUS did award Search Results a 110 figure. Two starts ago, Search Results put up a 106 as well on TimeformUS when taking the Busher Invitational. Based on those numbers, it is hard to dismiss her as a player for the top spot. Win contender.
13. Competitive Speed, 50-1 (Competitive Edge – Javier Gonzalez/Chris Landeros – 7: 3-0-2 - $116,595): Competitive Speed was a non-threatening third in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) by four lengths and third in the Davona Dale Stakes (G2) by eight lengths. On paper, there is no sneaky angle to use. Competitive Speed looks like the opposite of her name and handicappers should pass. Toss.
14. Millefeuille, 20-1 (Curlin – William Mott/Joel Rosario – 5: 1-3-0 - $127,800): After losing by only 3/4 of length to Malathaat in the Demoiselle Stakes (G2), she did not exactly back up the effort with a dismal seventh in the Davona Dale at Gulfstream. She then ran second to Crazy Beautiful in the Gulfstream Park Oaks after briefly taking the lead. Even though there is some talent here, she draws poorly and likely needs a confidence booster following those two losses. Toss.
Conclusion:
Even though there are a couple of fillies who can win this race, the preference goes to the Ashland duo of Malathaat and Pass the Champagne.
With Malathaat’s low odds, it is best to take a confident stand with her in most wagers. The possible bet is an Oaks/Derby Double using Malathaat with Rock Your World and Medina Spirit, and a smaller bet using Pass the Champagne with Rock Your World and Medina Spirit. Those Derby selections depend on the post draw.
Clairiere is the third preference. Use her in the Pick 4s along with Malathaat and Pass the Champagne.