Kentucky Oaks handicapping: Who moves up on a wet track?
Being a meteorologist is a lot like being a public handicapper. When customers agree with you they hope you're right and when they don't they hope you're wrong.
As the likelihood of not only that it will rain increases but also that the amount of rain will be significant Friday at Churchill Downs, the time spent on what an "off" track means for the complexion of the Kentucky Oaks increases.
This year, half the current field has a win on an off track, with the drawn-in Our Pretty Woman sporting a pair of victories on a sealed, sloppy main track at Fair Grounds before finishing second to morning-line favorite Tarifa in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks, which was on a track rated as fast.
| Entrant | Off starts | Wins | Overall record | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Gin Gin | 3 | 1 | 7: 2-2-2 | Brad Cox |
| 3. Where's My Ring | 1 | 0 | 8: 1-3-1 | Val Brinkerhoff |
| 4. Regulatory Risk | 2 | 1 | 5: 1-2-0 | Chad Brown |
| 5. Thorpedo Anna | 0 | n/a | 4: 3-1-0 | Kenny McPeek |
| 6. Lemon Muffin | 1 | 0 | 7: 1-4-0 | D. Wayne Lukas |
| 7. Fiona's Magic | 1 | 0 | 6: 3-2-0 | Michael Yates |
| 8. Tarifa | 1 | 1 | 5: 4-0-0 | Brad Cox |
| 9. Everland | 0 | n/a | 7: 3-0-1 | Eric Foster |
| 10. Into Champagne | 1 | 1 | 4: 2-1-1 | Ian Wilkes |
| 11. Ways and Means | 0 | n/a | 3: 1-2-0 | Chad Brown |
| 12. Power Squeeze | 1 | 0 | 6: 4-1-0 | Jorge Delgado |
| 13. Just F Y I | 1 | 1 | 4: 3-1-0 | Bill Mott |
| 14. Leslie's Rose | 1 | 1 | 4: 3-0-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| 15. Our Pretty Woman | 2 | 2 | 3: 2-1-0 | Steve Asmussen |
My top pick in the race, Ways and Means, never has raced on an off track, but her sire Practical Joke is 16 percent with his progeny on an off track. Her dam, the Warrior's Reward mare Strong Incentive, never raced on an off track, but her dam, the stakes-winning Comic Strip mare G G's Dolly, won a stakes on off going and has produced three winners on an off track.
Another filly with no off track experience is Everland. That's because she also has no dirt experience, but whatever you think of her chances on dirt, you have to think better of them on off going. Her sire Arrogate is 26-for-90 with his off-going runners and has a +58.5 percent Horse Racing Nation Impact score. In other words, they're winning a lot and still managing to outrun their odds when they do.