Kentucky Oaks fair odds: How low can Good Cheer go?

I resisted hopping on the Good Cheer bandwagon through every start of her six-race undefeated career, but the win in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks was just too good to ignore. More important from a Kentucky Oaks (G1) standpoint is that she has improved as a 3-year-old and has given every indication that she can move forward again on at Churchill Downs on May 2.

If her record on paper is not impressive enough, the Oaks itself seems to be setting up for her style with plenty of early speed and presser types giving jockey Luis Saez a pace to close into.

So what's the rub? Well, price is always a consideration. She has been favored in all seven of her career starts, going off as low as 1-20 when beating three others in the Rachel Alexandra (G2). Funny enough, she is sure to draw comparisons with that all-time great if she makes it 7-for-7 in the Oaks, a race Rachel Alexandra won by 20 lengths. Both fillies are by Medaglia d'Oro.

Good Cheer was 2-5 when against seven others in the Fair Grounds Oaks. I have her fair odds against this group at 2-1, which means I think she wins this race a third of the time. I expect that to drop come actual race time but want to leave myself wiggle room at this time with final works, weather and the post draw all still to come.

Will she be odds-on? It's happened nine times the past 34 years but not at all since Rachel Alexandra won at 3-10. Incredibly, Rachel Alexandra was one of only three winners among the nine, with Silverbulletday winning at 1-10 in 1999 and Lite Light at 9-10 in 1991. Among the big-time losers in that time were Urbane at 3-10 and Prospectors Delite at 1-2. Overall favorites in the race are just 10-for-34, or 29%.