Kentucky Oaks fair odds: Believe the hype on the favorite

I certainly understand the argument that Good Cheer is an underlay in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.

I understand it because it is an argument I made in her previous three starts at odds of 3-5, 1-20 and 2-5. In fact, she has been the favorite in all six of her starts, all wins, with her biggest price coming when winning at 6-5 on debut.

Early indications are that 6-5 is her floor in terms of price in the Kentucky Oaks on Friday at Churchill Downs. That means her fans might get the biggest price of Good Cheer's career in her biggest race to date. Or if you're like me, late to the Good Cheer party, you're getting a much better price than, say, 1-20.

So why now for me? I loved her Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), and there is no indication from the six weeks since that she is doing anything but getting better. Trainer Brad Cox is effervescent when talking about this Godolphin homebred, and there is little doubt that she will have pace in front of her to set up that impressive closing kick. 

Good Cheer is the filly to beat, and any hype on others only serves to help us. She's a square price and worthy win bet at anything more than her morning-line odds of 6-5.

Of course, it's Kentucky Derby weekend, so we cannot be content to just bet to win when dollar-minimum superfectas in 14-horse fields are available.

Simply Joking is the filly I'm most interested in underneath. Yes, there is a lot of pace here, and that could compromise the Silverbulletday Stakes winner from post 2. But I do think she is the best of the speed fillies. Just look at how she dug in against likely second choice Quietside, who is marooned in post 14. I will play the Oaks with Good Cheer winning and Simply Joking hanging on for a piece underneath.

Because of all the speed expected in the Oaks, it is worth noting long-shot closers who could run on late behind Good Cheer. Take Charge Milady makes the most sense from that perspective but will not be a huge price. Still, if you can beat fillies such as the Bob Baffert-trained Santa Anita Oaks (G2) winner Tenma and Quietside out of the number then you're essentially beating the top two choices in a 13-horse field out of a trifecta beneath Good Cheer.