Kentucky Oaks fair odds: A strong lean on a co-4th choice
This year's Kentucky Oaks is one of the deepest fields for a Grade 1 race as I can remember. It's so good that either of the also-eligible entrants would be contenders as well.
But at this point, three days before the 1 1/8-miles race at Churchill Downs, we'll focus on the 14 who are in, and five of these are sure to be found at the top of most lists. The folly, though, is to try to use most of those five, and I think this is the type of race where you plant your flag because you'll never get this kind of price on a superstar again.
For me, that filly is Ways and Means. She is 5-1 on Mike Battaglia's morning line, which makes her the co-fourth choice in the field of 14 with Tarifa the 7-2 favorite. Champion Just F Y I is the 9-2 third choice, and the horse who beat her last time, Ashland (G1) winner Leslie's Rose, is the 4-1 second choice. Fantasy Stakes winner Thorpedo Anna is the other 5-1 fourth choice.
So why so bullish on Ways and Means against these tremendous fillies? From a wagering perspective, I actually like that she lost her last race. She ran a winning race, and I guess it's a bit concerning that she snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, but a win there and she's the favorite here. This is a rare instance of missing the funeral and still getting to attend the wedding.
Ways and Means will be a strong single for me in the popular multi-race bets such as the Oaks-Kentucky Derby double and the Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby Pick 3. As for wagering on the Oaks itself, it is difficult to ignore the opportunity to bet a $1 superfecta on a 14-horse field, so we'll play Ways and Means in the top two spots only. If she's worse than that then I'll just have to be wrong.
Except ...
If Where's My Ring crashes the party, then I'll want to have a piece of it. If you write off the Oaks to most of the top five contenders but still sneak Where's my Ring in there, then you can do OK. It costs $60 per spot in the superfecta to key Where's My Ring with the top 5 choices. If I zero in on Ways And Means having to be one of the ones then, it's only $36 per spot.