Kentucky Oaks 2026: Odds and analysis for fillies classic

The Grade 1, $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks will be run on Friday at Churchill Downs. The run for the lilies has a field of 14 3-year-old fillies, with Zany the 4-1 morning-line favorite.

The Kentucky Oaks is the first time that most of these fillies will run the 1 1/8-mile distance, and they will do it at Churchill Downs with its long stretch run. Only three horses in the field have experience at the nine-furlong distance. Six of the fillies come to the first Friday in May with a victory in their most recent race.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Kentucky Oaksk which will be run under the lights and is scheduled as race 13 of 13 with post time set for 8:40 p.m. EDT.

1. Explora, 6-1. Blame – Bob Baffert / Flavien Prat – 7: 4-3-0 - $1,053,000. Explora was the favorite in all seven of her races, and in five of them she was odds-on. As a Baffert 2-year-old, she won her debut as a 1-5 favorite in a field of five and the Oak Leaf (G2) at Santa Anita. Explora looked like a winner in the stretch of the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies but could not get by the eventual winner. She won twice this year in the Santa Ynez in January and the Honeybee (G3) two months ago at Oaklawn. Baffert is a three-time Oaks winner with Silverbulletday in 1999, Plum Pretty in 2011 and Abel Tasman in 2017. Trifecta finish possible.  

2. Zany, 4-1. American Pharoah – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 4: 3-1-0 - $369,625. Zany started her career with three victories as a 2-year-old. She won her debut at Gulfstream Park by more than six lengths in November and then shipped to New York, where she was again an open-length winner in the Demoiselle (G2) against a small field. In February she went to Tampa Bay Downs for her third start in the Suncoast. Last seen she was second in the Ashland (G1) as the 3-5 favorite behind Percy’s Bar. Pletcher has four Oaks victories on his resume and three of them went to eventual champion 3-year-old fillies, Ashado in 2004, Rags to Riches in 2007, Princess of Sylmar in 2013 and Malathaat in 2021. Win contender.

3. Search Party, 30-1. Gun Runner – Mark Casse / Cristian Torres – 8: 2-2-2 - $516,711. Search Party is one of four daughters of Gun Runner in the race. Her eight starts make her the most experienced filly in the Oaks field, which is common for the barn of Mark Casse. She needed five starts to get her maiden victory, which happened at Oaklawn in December. Casse moved her right on to the Oaks trail, where she won the Martha Washington, was fourth in the Honeybee (G3) and second in the Fantasy (G2). In prior races 5-1 was her highest odds, so 30-1 morning-line odds are enticing if you like her. Toss.  

4. Counting Stars, 8-1. Honor A. P. – Mark Casse / Francisco Arrieta – 7: 4-1-0 - $972,606. Counting Stars gets in the gate next to her stablemate, and they ran against each other in those three Oaks prep races at Oaklawn. She was pulled up in the Martha Washington but bounced back to form with a second in the Honeybee and a more than five-length win in the Fantasy. Counting Stars was full of run contesting the pace as the odds-on favorite in that final points race at the end of March. Use underneath.

5. Meaning, 5-1. Gun Runner – Michael McCarthy / Juan Hernandez – 4: 3-0-0 - $307,000. Meaning was well-liked from the get-go, winning her debut at Los Alamitos by more than three lengths as the odds-on favorite. She was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. As a 3-year-old, she won twice on the Santa Anita road to the Oaks in the Las Virgenes and the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) while racing from a stalking position. Win contender.

6. My Miss Mo, 20-1. Uncle Mo – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Micah Husbands – 5: 1-3-0 - $148,030. My Miss Mo made all five starts in Florida, beginning with a pair of state-bred maiden races at Gulfstream where she got her lone victory by 12 lengths as a .10-1 favorite. Her juvenile racing ended with a fourth in the Sandpiper at Tampa. Moving to the Oaks trail, the daughter of Uncle Mo was second in both the Davona Dale (G2) and the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2). Toss.

7. Dazzling Dame, 30-1. Girvin – Brittany Russell / Luis Saez – 6: 4-1-0 - $290,525. Dazzling Dame had four starts as a 2-year-old and won three of them at mid-Atlantic tracks, a maiden win against state-breds at Laurel Park, the one-mile Sorority at Monmouth Park and a Delaware Park stakes. In three starts on the Oaks trail, Dazzling Dame was fourth in the Pocahontas (G3), an open-length winner of the Busanda in a five-filly field and second in the Virginia Oaks after setting the pace. In six starts her highest odds were 7-2 but here in the Oaks she is 30-1. Toss.

8. Bottle of Rouge, SCR. Vino Rosso – Bob Baffert / Mike Smith – 6: 4-1-0 - $577,000. Scratch.

9. Always a Runner, 10-1. Gun Runner – Chad Brown / Jose Ortiz – 2: 2-0-0 - $129,200. Always a Runner debuted in February going two turns at Tampa and was an odds-on winner by more than six lengths. She was the winner of the 1 1/8-mile Gazelle (G3), which was the final race on the New York road to the Oaks. Jose Ortiz gets on board the $1.05 million yearling purchase for the first time. Top pick.

10. Prom Queen, 8-1. Quality Road – Brad Cox / Javier Castellano – 3: 2-1-0 - $206,980. Prom Queen made significant improvement in her three starts at Gulfstream if you focus on the speed figures. Her first start was in January, when she was second in a one-turn mile as the favorite in an eight-horse field. The following month she romped to an eight-length victory going two turns. A victory in the Gulfstream Park Oaks secured her spot in the Kentucky Oaks. Cox will try to win the Oaks for the fourth time to go along with Monomoy Girl in 2018, Shedaresthedevil in 2020 and Good Cheer last year. Win contender.

11. Percy’s Bar, 6-1. Upstart – Ben Colebrook / Luan Machado– 6: 3-2-1 - $1,015,121. Percy’s Bar accumulated $1.015 million in earnings from three official victrories and a second when she was disqualified in the Alcibiades (G1). In her fifth start as a juvenile, she was third in the Breeders’ Cup. She had only one start thus far as a 3-year-old and won the Ashland (G1) by more than two lengths. Win contender.

12. Bella Ballerina, 12-1. Street Sense – Brendan Walsh / Tyler Gaffalione – 4: 3-1-0 - $561,525. Bella Ballerina was undefeated in her first three starts, moving from an easy maiden win at Keeneland in October to the Golden Rod (G2) and the Rachel Alexander (G2) in February after a short winter layoff. In the March running of the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) she again pressed the pace, but this time she missed the winner’s circle. She will race without blinkers for the first time. Brendan Walsh won the Oaks in 2023 with Pretty Mischievous. Win contender.

13. Pashmina, 30-1. Constitution – Rob Atras / Ramon Vasquez – 6: 1-1-2 - $116,911. Pashmina broke her maiden at Fair Grounds in her second race by more than 10 lengths and then made four starts in Oaks prep races. She won qualifying points in all of them, with a third in the Untapable, fourth in the Silverbulletday, third in the Sunland Park Oaks and a second in the Gazelle after setting the pace. Toss.

14. Brooklyn Blonde, 20-1. Gun Runner – Michael McCarthy / Kazushi Kimura – 4: 1-2-0 - $96,500. Brooklyn Blonde will race outside of California for the first time. She was a maiden winner going a mile in her third try against a field of six and then was second in the Santa Anita Oaks. Toss.

15. Lovely Grey, 30-1. Vekoma – Kelsey Danner / Dylan Davis – 7: 1-2-1 - $148,668. Lovely Grey drew into the Kentucky Oaks field after the scratch of Bottle of Rouge. The Oaks will be her second start on a dirt track after making her career debut in July at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Lovely Grey made her next three starts on the grass, breaking her maiden at Colonial Downs in August. She was sixth in an allowance at Kentucky Downs and the Selima at Laurel Park. As a 3-year-old she ran three times on the Tapeta at Turfway Park, where she was third in an allowance and second in the Cincinnati Trophy and the Bourbonette Oaks. Toss.

AE16. Nycon, 20-1. Nyquist – Whit Beckman / Jaime Torres – 5: 1-2-0 - $154,018.  

AE17. Resist, 20-1. Maclean’s Music – Thomas Drury Jr. / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 4: 2-0-2 - $165,066.  

Summary: There are plenty of horses with attractive odds in the Oaks field of 14, which includes six fillies who won their final prep race for the run for the lilies. That makes it rather hard to separate the fillies in that group. Those last-out winners range from the 5-1 Meaning to the 10-1 Always a Runner and does not include the 4-1 morning-line favorite Zany, who was second in the Ashland in her April start.  

One handicapping factor in the Oaks is that only three of the fillies have experience at the nine-furlong distance, which they got at Aqueduct. The favorite Zany won the Demoiselle in December as a 2-year-old. Always a Runner is 10-1 even though she won the Gazelle last month, beating Pashmina who is a long shot in the Oaks.  

Always a Runner had a delayed February first start after a virus swept through Chad Brown’s barn, preventing her from making a debut in the late fall as a 2-year-old. She handled the Oaks distance with ease even when forced to race seven wide turning in the stretch run. With generous odds expected, Always a Runner is the top pick.