Kentucky Oaks 2025: Ranking the field from 1st to last
All eyes will be on the undefeated Good Cheer as she goes for her seventh straight victory in Friday's Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. It is hard to find much fault with the star filly other than her 6-5 price on the morning line. It is tough to take those odds in a 14-horse field, especially when multiple other runners are competitive based on Beyer Speed Figures from Daily Racing Form.
Those looking to beat the favorite should search for a filly who has the upside to take the necessary step forward to compete with Good Cheer. Below I analyze the 3-year-old who has the best chance of upsetting the favorite as well as the rest of the 14-horse field by ranking them from first to last.
1st, Simply Joking, (10-1). Whitworth Beckman's filly is the second-most lightly raced runner in the Kentucky Oaks, but she already has proved to be among the best in this crop in only three starts. She has steadily improved in each start and has the tactical speed to be involved throughout. She suffered her first defeat to Quietside in the Fantasy Stakes (G2), but I feel she gained a tremendous education that day in dueling through the stretch with a more seasoned rival while returning from a short layoff. Simply Joking looks primed for a peak performance on Friday.
2nd, Good Cheer, (6-5). The logical filly has yet to be challenged in six starts and has a perfect tracking style to help her sit a nice trip. She owns three wins over the track and should have no problem with the added distance. She will be tough to beat, and it is hard to imagine her finishing out of the exacta.
3rd, Take Charge Milady, (12-1). Her Martha Washington Stakes win, in which she dominated Quietside, was powerful and a repeat of that effort puts her right in the mix. Her following race in the Honeybee Stakes (G3) after breaking poorly was a debacle, but she proved she is still in good form when running a good second in the Ashland Stakes (G1) behind loose leader La Cara. The daughter of Take Charge Indy has a fighting chance to give Kenny McPeek his second Oaks win in a row.
4th, Quietside, (8-1). She must overcome the far outside post, but the daugther of Malibu Moon is in the best form of her life. She has fought every battle, having already squared off with many of the main competitors in this race, and she has never finished out of the money in seven lifetime tries. Other runners might have more upside, but this filly figures to be right in the mix when the dust settles.
5th, Five G, (12-1). George Weaver's filly just missed against Quietside in the Honeybee Stakes when breaking from post 13. She has a much better post than her rival on Friday and her Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) win stamps her as a main contender. She will have to fend off other pace pressure in this spot but should not be taken lightly.
6th, Tenma, (12-1). Bob Baffert's filly has the highest career Beyer Speed Figure in the field. Unfortunately it came in a three-horse field, making that number tough to trust. She has won 5 of 6 starts, with her only loss coming when the connections experimented with blinkers. The daughter of Nyquist has not been beating much, but she might be this good.
7th, Fondly, (20-1). Like Simply Joking, this filly might have plenty of upside as she makes only her third career start in the Kentucky Oaks. Irad Ortiz Jr. retains the mount and though she won at Colonial Downs, she defeated Early On, who almost proceeded to win the Gazelle Stakes (G3).
8th, La Cara, (6-1). Mark Casse's filly has been brilliant at times but has shown more inconsistency than the majority of her rivals. Her Breeders' Cup performance was poor, and she hung like a picture in a weak edition of the Donvona Dale (G2). A repeat of her Ashland Stakes (G1) win last out gives her a chance, but she will face significantly more pace pressure in the Kentucky Oaks.
9th, Ballerina d’Oro, (10-1). I am taking a stand against the New York crop of 3-year-old fillies. The Gazelle Stakes (G3) was a slow race, and she was all out to win following a subpar effort in a five-horse field at Gulfstream Park. She will take money because of her connections, but she seems like a bit of a plodder.
10th, Quickick, (30-1). She was one of the better 2-year-old fillies in the country but has failed to take a step forward as a 3-year-old. The rest of the crop has caught up and surpassed her, and she would need to improve considerably to contend.
11th, Anna’s Promise, (30-1). She was claimed for $50,000 just three months ago and has really improved under Carlos David. She is likely to get caught in a pace duel with La Cara, Simply Joking and Five G and will have a tough time hanging around her more accomplished rivals.
12th, Early On (30-1). She should not be three times the odds of Ballerina d'Oro after losing to her by a nose, but she has far more to worry about than that rival, and that grueling race may have emptied the tank for Friday.
13th, Drexel Hill, (30-1). Whitworth Beckman's second entrant was no match for her stablemate earlier this year and appears to be better suited to one-turn races as she returns off a two-month freshening.
14th, Bless the Broken, (30-1). The daughter of Laoban relished Turfway Park's synthetic surface but has only a 4-1/2 furlong win on the dirt and appears outclassed in this spot.