Kentucky Oaks 2025: Odds and analysis for all 14 fillies

The Grade 1, $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks will be run on the first Friday in May at Churchill Downs. The run for the lilies drew a field of 14 3-year-old fillies with the undefeated Good Cheer listed as the 6-5 morning line favorite.

The Oaks field has 11 fillies that won a qualifying points race and nine of those victories were in their most recent start. Six of the wins were in graded stakes that include a Grade 1, four in Grade 2 stakes and one Grade 3. The field is rounded out by two fillies that have only a maiden win and the other is an allowance winner.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Kentucky Oaks which is scheduled as race 11 out of 13 with post time set for 5:51 p.m. EDT. Each horse is shown with the official track morning line odds, her sire, trainer, jockey, record and purse earnings.

1. Early On, 30-1. Union Rags – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Edgard Zayas – 6: 1-3-1 - $162,200. Early On broke her maiden in her fourth start which was at Gulfstream Park in February. The New York-bred was second in a pair of Kentucky Oaks qualifiers. She raced from behind in the Virginia Oaks and pressed the pace in the Gazelle (G3) to get the lead midway through that nine-furlong prep race. Toss.

2. Simply Joking, 10-1. Practical Joke – Whit Beckman / Florent Geroux – 3: 2-1-0 - $288,000. Simply Joking won her first two starts at Fair Grounds winning a sprint stakes race in December and then the Silverbulletday in January with a front-end effort. In the Fantasy (G2) at Oaklawn she set the pace while battling with the eventual winner of the race. Win contender.

3. Fondly, 20-1. Upstart – Graham Motion / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 2: 2-0-0 - $169,200. Fondly is undefeated in a career that began in February with a seven-furlong maiden at Tampa Bay Downs. Graham Motion moved her to the Oaks trail and won the Virginia Oaks after contending for the lead throughout the one-turn 1 1/16-mile contest. Irad Ortiz stays on board. Win contender.

4. Drexel Hill, 30-1. Bolt d’Oro – Whit Beckman / Ben Curtis – 7: 2-2-1 - $180,520. Drexel Hill brings lots of experience to the Oaks field. She began her career at Woodbine last year and broke her maiden in her fourth start. She changed trainers and moved to the Kentucky barn of the former Chad Brown assistant, Whit Beckman. She ran twice on the Oaks trail at Fair Grounds and then got a points victory in the Busher at Aqueduct in March with a strong closing move after stumbling at the start. Toss.

5. Quickick, 30-1. McKinzie – Tom Amoss / Umberto Rispoli – 6: 1-1-2 - $396,000. Quickick broke her maiden in her second race at Saratoga for Tom Amoss. She picked up Oaks qualifying points in her next four starts with a second in the Alcibiades (G1) and a third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. This year Quickick was fifth in the Honeybee (G3) and fourth in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). Tom Amoss won the Kentucky Oaks in 2019 with Serengeti Empress. Toss.

6. Ballerina d’Oro, 10-1. Medaglia d’Oro – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 6: 2-1-1 - $286,975. Ballerina d’Oro is one of two fillies that were sired by Medaglia d’Oro. She began her career with three turf starts and then ran three times on the Oaks trail with a second, a third, and then in April in the Gazelle (G3) at Aqueduct with a stalking trip. Flavien Prat has become the premier big race rider in America. Win contender.

7. La Cara, 6-1. Street Sense – Mark Casse / Dylan Davis – 9: 4-2-0 - $866,083. La Cara is one of only two Grade 1 winners in the Oaks field. She won the Ashland (G1) with a front-end trip against a field of eight at Keeneland. La Cara had two other victories on the road to the Oaks in the Pocahontas (G3) at Churchill Downs and the Suncoast at Tampa Bay Downs. Win contender.

8. Five G, 12-1. Vekoma – George Weaver / Manny Franco – 6: 3-2-0 - $393,740. Five G finished first or second in her last five starts. The New York-bred set the pace in the Honeybee at Oaklawn and then won the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) leading every step of the way. Win contender.

9. Tenma, 12-1. Nyquist – Bob Baffert / J J Hernandez – 6: 5-0-1 - $549,000. Tenma won five times including her last three in California graded stakes. Her last two victories she won by open lengths with stalking trips as the odds-on favorite. Tenma is the other Grade 1 winner in the field from the Del Mar Debutante in September. Bob Baffert won the Oaks three times in 2017 with Abel Tasman, Plum Pretty in 2011 and Silverbulletday in 1999. Win contender.

10. Take Charge Milady, 12-1. Take Charge Indy – Ken McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 6: 2-2-0 - $416,469. Take Charge Milady won twice in January at Oaklawn with her maiden-breaker and then the Martha Washington on the Oaks trail. She never had a chance in the Honeybee after facing too much trouble. She bounced back to rally for second in the Ashland. Mc Peek won the Oaks last year with horse of the year Thorpedo Anna. Use underneath.

11. Good Cheer, 6-5. Medaglia d’Oro – Brad Cox / Luis Saez – 6: 6-0-0 - $877,630. Good Cheer has done nothing wrong winning all six of her races of which four were last year. Her speed figures gradually increased throughout her career to fit with the fastest fillies in this field. Her margins of victory range from 2 ½-lengths to 17. Good Cheer faced only three of the fillies in the Oaks field in her six races. Brad Cox has a pair of Oaks victories with Shedaresthedevil in 2020 and Monomoy Girl in 2018. The one to beat.

12. Anna’s Promise, 30-1. Promises Fulfilled – David Carlos / Junior Alvarado – 8: 2-3-0 - $150,854. Anna’s Promise finished first or second five times and that was when she was able to be part of the early pace. She broke her maiden in her sixth try and was claimed for $50,000 in February at Gulfstream. She qualified for the Oaks when she was second in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. Toss.

13. Bless the Broken, 30-1. Laoban – William Walden / John Velazquez – 7: 2-2-1 - $282,835. Bless the Broken was a debut winner at Evangeline Downs in July and then changed to the barn of Will Walden who put her in a pair of Kentucky allowances before trying the Oaks trail. She was second in the Silverbulletday and third in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) before winning the Bourbonette Oaks on the synthetic track at Turfway Park. Toss.

14. Quietside, 8-1. Malibu Moon – John Ortiz / Jose Ortiz – 7: 3-3-1 - $957,200. Quietside never ran a bad race in seven tries running in the top three every time. Her last five starts were on the road to the Oaks with two pace-pressing victories in the Honeybee and the Fantasy in February and March. Jose Ortiz, who is riding as well as at any point in his career, got the two best efforts from Quietside. Top Choice.

Summary: The 2025 Kentucky Derby drew yet another quality field with nine of them showing a victory in their past performances in their most recent starts. That makes it difficult to eliminate any of them from consideration.

Good Cheer is the horse to beat with her perfect 6 for 6 record and the 6-5 morning line odds are realistic. Horses like Good Cheer are good for the sport, but I cannot bet her to win at that very short price.

That leads me to two quality fillies that have what appear to be generous morning line odds. Quietside ran the two best races of her career at Oaklawn with her top speed figures and comes with 8-1 odds on the line. La Cara is 6-1 and became a Grade 1 winner in the Ashland for Mark Casse.

Quietside is the top choice especially if her odds are anywhere close to the morning line.