Kentucky Oaks 2024: Odds and analysis

The Grade 1, $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks will be run on the first Friday in May at Churchill Downs. The Run for the Lilies drew a field of 14 3-year-old fillies with Tarifa named the 7-2 morning line favorite.

Three trainers will try and add to their past Oaks victories this year. D. Wayne Lukas got his fifth victory in 2022 with Secret Oath. Todd Pletcher currently has four wins in the Oaks with Malathaat in 2021 joining Princess of Sylmar, Rags to Riches and Ashado. Brad Cox won the Run for the Lilies twice with Shedaresthedevil in 2020 and Monomoy Girl in 2018.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Kentucky Oaks which is scheduled as race 11 out of 13 with post time set for 5:51 p.m. EDT. Each horse is shown with the official track morning line odds, her sire, trainer, jockey, record and purse earnings.

1. Tapit Jenallie, 30-1. Tapit – Eddie Milligan Jr. / Manny Esquivel – 6: 2-1-1 - $236,819. Tapit Jenallie won the first two starts of her career last year in a maiden race at Remington Park and then a stakes race at Delta Downs by a combined 13 lengths. She moved onto the road to the Oaks at Oaklawn Park and earned qualifying points each time but could do no better than a second behind Lemon Muffin in the Honeybee (G3). Toss.

2. Gin Gin, 30-1. Hightail – Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 7: 2-2-2 - $230,508. Gin Gin is the first of two fillies in the Oaks for Brad Cox. She was a maiden winner of her second start with a front-end effort at Churchill Downs. She then raced in five Oaks points races with a victory in the Busanda with a stalking trip at Aqueduct in January going nine-furlongs. Gin Gin was third in the Busher and the Gazelle (G3) in New York in her most recent starts. Toss.

3. Where’s My Ring, 15-1. Twirling Candy – Val Brinkerhoff / Jose Lezcano – 8: 1-3-1 - $202,620. Where’s My Ring shipped from California to New York and was a convincing winner of the Gazelle by more than four-lengths after pressing the pace. That turned out to be her maiden victory as the 5-2 favorite. She had finished second in the Santa Ysabel (G3) at Santa Anita behind the Bob Baffert runner Kinza who is ineligible to run in the Oaks. Win contender.

4. Regulatory Risk, 20-1. Omaha Beach – Chad Brown / Jose Ortiz – 5: 1-2-0 - $114,274. Regulatory Risk was second in the Gazelle at Aqueduct for Chad Brown who is seeking his first win in the Oaks. The blinkers come off and Jose Ortiz, who won the Oaks in 2019 with Serengeti Empress, will get on board for the first time. Use underneath.

5. Thorpedo Anna, 5-1. Fast Anna – Kenny McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 4: 3-1-0 - $584,363. Thorpedo Anna is named for the five-time Australian Olympic gold medal winning swimmer Ian Thorpe who earned the nickname the Thorpedo. She won her first two starts including a nine-length victory in an allowance at Churchill as a 2-year-old. Her lone start of 2024 was a four-length win in the Fantasy (G2) at Oaklawn in March after pressing the pace. Win contender.

6. Lemon Muffin, 30-1. Collected – D. Wayne Lukas / Keith Asmussen – 7: 1-4-0 - $324,000. Lemon Muffin broke her maiden in her sixth start which was in the Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn by more than three-lengths after a stalking trip at 28-1. She stayed in Arkansas and showed very little as she was a non-threatening seventh in the Fantasy. Toss.

7. Fiona’s Magic, 30-1. St Patrick’s Day – Michael Yates / Luis Saez – 6: 3-2-0 - $253,410. Fiona’s Magic is a Florida-bred that made all six career starts at Gulfstream Park. She got her initial victory in her second start by seven-lengths in a sprint as a 2-year-old. She then moved into graded stakes racing with a second in the Forward Gal (G3) and then won the Davona Dale (G2) with a front-end effort. In the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), Fiona’s Magic faded badly and finished far behind. Toss.

8. Tarifa, 7-2*. Bernardini – Brad Cox / Flavien Prat – 5: 4-0-0 - $518,925. Tarifa is a home-bred daughter of Godolphin who won the Oaks last year with Pretty Mischievous. Tarifa was an impressive debut winner at Keeneland as a 2-year-old. The only loss of her career was a fourth next time in an allowance at Churchill. She won all three of her starts in 2024 at Fair Grounds moving from an allowance to the Rachel Alexandra (G2) to the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), each time with stalking trips. Win contender.

9. Everland, 30-1. Arrogate – Eric Foster / Abel Cedillo – 7: 3-0-0 - $237,143. Everland was claimed for $30,000 in December after she won a maiden claimer at Turfway Park. She moved on to win a starter allowance at the same track before running fourth in her first try in a stakes race. Everland got into the Oaks when she won the Bourbonette Oaks with a last to first rally in a 10 horse field. The first Friday in May will be her first start on a dirt track. Toss.

10. Into Champagne, 30-1. Into Mischief – Ian Wilkes / Julien Leparoux – 4: 2-1-1 - $193,960. Into Champagne won her first two starts while sprinting first at Ellis Park in June and then in January in a stakes race at Gulfstream. She moved on to Oaks qualifiers and was second in the Davona Dale and third in the Gulfstream Park Oaks while pressing the pace. Toss.

11. Ways and Means, 5-1. Practical Joke – Chad Brown / Tyler Gaffalione – 3: 1-2-0 - $165,750. Ways and Means is the second Oaks filly for Chad Brown in the field. She is a home-bred daughter of Practical Joke that ran off to an almost 13-length debut victory at Saratoga in August. She was then second in the Spinaway (G1) after clipping heels, getting taken up and lost by only a half-length. In her first start of this year, she again had a troubled trip, got to the lead and also finished second. Win contender.

12. Power Squeeze, 12-1. Union Rags – Jorge Delgado / Daniel Centeno – 6: 4-1-0 - $337,450. Power Squeeze heads to Churchill with four wins in a row. She broke her maiden at Delaware Park in October, won the Cash Run at Gulfstream in her first start of 2024, the Suncoast at Tampa Bay Downs and then the Gulfstream Park Oaks. She won each time coming from off the pace. Live long shot.

13. Just F Y I, 9-2. Justify – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 4: 3-1-0 - $1,433,250. Just F Y I was the undefeated champion 2-year-old filly after winning all three of her starts. She was a debut winner at Saratoga, a winner of the Frizette (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott is trying to win the Kentucky Oaks for the first time. He brought Just F Y I back in the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland and she finished second in what was an excellent preparation for Friday’s big race. Top choice.

14. Leslie’s Rose, 4-1. Into Mischief – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 4: 3-0-1 - $467,800. Leslie’s Rose ran the best race of her career when she won the Ashland at Keeneland in her final prep race for the Oaks. She drew off to beat the champion Just F Y I by three lengths after stalking the pacesetters. Irad Ortiz stays on board as he tries to get his first victory in Friday’s signature race. Win contender.

AE15. Our Pretty Woman, 15-1. Medaglia d’Oro – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario – 3: 2-1-0 - $150,200.

AE16. Candied, 20-1. Candy Ride – Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez – 4: 2-0-1 - $624,675.

Summary: In what is one of the most competitive fields in the history of the Kentucky Oaks, there are seven legitimate win contenders with morning line odds ranging from the 7-2 favorite Tarifa to the 15-1 long shot Where’s My Ring.

Just F Y I is third in the morning line at 9-2 and will be the top choice with serious consideration going to Ways and Means and Thorpedo Anna who are both listed at 5-1.