Kentucky Oaks 2023: Ranking the field 1st to last

The Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks highlights a fantastic 13-race card at Churchill Downs on Friday. There may not be a superstar such as Rachel Alexandra, Monomoy Girl or Rags to Riches in this year's edition, but there are a slew of very nice fillies in this deep and contentious field.

Below is my analysis of all 14 runners in the 2023 Kentucky Oaks, ranked from first to last.

1) No. 4 Southlawn, 8-1: This rapidly improving filly crushed a good Fair Ground Oaks (G2) field while defeating Pretty Mischievous, The Alys Look and Hoosier Philly. She will get the first jump on Wet Paint and offers nice value at 8-1 after winning her last two races by almost 12 combined lengths. She might end up proving to be a star in the making for Norm Casse.

2) No. 7 Wet Paint, 5-2: The likely favorite has a ferocious closing kick and has shown she can professionally handle any surface and circumstance thrown at her. Flavien Prat fits her like a glove, and she will be tough to keep out of the exacta at a distance she should relish. 

3) No. 6 Botanical, 4-1: Her talent is immense as she has dominated foes in all four starts on Turfway Park's synthetic surface. She has the tactical speed to be forwardly place and will be very tough if she can handle the dirt. She is a must-use is all horizontal wagers as a potential boom or bust candidate.

4) No. 11 Defining Purpose, 12-1: Her Ashland (G1) win was sharp, and she can certainly contend in this race if her 20-1 victory was more than a fluke. Her prior two efforts, which were below average, came over wet surfaces. As such, it is very possible that her Ashland win was the real deal as she also posted two powerful wins over fast tracks as a 2-year-old.

5) No. 14 Pretty Mischievous, 10-1: Though she is stuck in post 14, she has shown tremendous consistency and could easily round out the trifecta or superfecta. Southlawn beat her comfortably in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), and believers will hope the addition of blinkers will help her turn the tables.

6) No. 13 Affirmative Lady, 10-1: Like Pretty Mischievous, she will have to work out a trip from a wide draw. Graham Motion always has thought highly of her as she ran in a pair of stakes before breaking her maiden. She has turned the corner since adding blinkers and is dangerous with further progression.

7) No. 10 Flying Connection 15-1: Though she has not faced much competition at Sunland Park, she is a touch interesting at a big price. She possesses good early speed and has won a pair of route races in impressive fashion since removing the blinkers. There appears to be enough speed to soften her up, but it is not impossible to think she can get loose on the front end.

8) No. 2 The Alys Look, 15-1: She is a tough filly to analyze. The 89 Beyer Speed Figure she gained in the Silverbulletday Stakes matches the career-high of stablemate and morning-line favorite Wet Paint. Other than that effort, she has yet to top 75 on the Beyer Speed Figure scale. She has lost to Pretty Michievous twice by more than three lengths. A repeat of those efforts would put her a step below the top contenders.

9) No. 5 Wonder Wheel, 12-1: Last year's top 2-year-old filly seems to be the latest case of a filly who fails to move forward at age 3. She had no excuse when defeating only one rival in the Ashland and is hard to endorse in her current form.

10) No. 8 Promiseher America, 30-1: This filly has gotten better as the distances have increased, and her Gazelle (G3) victory came at the Oaks distance. Unfortunately that was a slow prep, and she will need to take another large step forward to contend.

11) No. 3 Gambling Girl, 15-1: She is slowly improving for Todd Pletcher, but she could not get the job done against a soft Gazelle field and faces a much tougher task on Friday.

12) No. 1 Mimi Kakushi, 20-1: Though the UAE Oaks (G3) winner appears to be a nice filly, she would be a surprising winner. Like the UAE Derby (G2), the UAE Oaks has not yielded any success in Kentucky. This year's UAE Oaks was more than four seconds slower than the UAE Derby over the same distance. Shahama took the same path to the Kentucky Oaks last year and could manage only a sixth-place finish.

13) No. 9 And Tell Me Nolies, 15-1: With the exception of Faiza, the California crop of 3-year-old fillies has been very weak this year. Her speed figures are consistently low, and her eighth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies is an indication that she is a step below the elite.

14) No. 12 Dorth Vader, 20-1: She must prove her Davona Dale (G2) win at 46-1 was not a fluke. She faded to fourth in her last start in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2), and it is hard to picture a scenario in which she runs better while facing tougher competition and more pace pressure at the longest distance of her career.