Kentucky Oaks 2023: Odds and full-field analysis

The Grade 1, $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks will be run on the first Friday in May at Churchill Downs. The run for the lilies drew a field of 14 3-year-old fillies with three also-eligibles.

Historically, hall of fame trainers D. Wayne Lukas and Woody Stephens are tied with the most Oaks winners at five. Lukas got his fifth victory last year with Secret Oath. Todd Pletcher has four wins in the Oaks, with Malathaat in 2021 joining Princess of Sylmar, Rags to Riches and Ashado. Brad Cox is the only other trainer in this year’s Oaks to have a victory in the race after winning with Shedaresthedevil and Monomoy Girl.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Kentucky Oaks, which is scheduled as race 11 of 13 with post time set for 5:56 p.m. EDT. Each horse is shown with the official track morning line odds, her sire, trainer, jockey, record, purse earnings.

1. Mimi Kakushi (20-1, City of Light, Salem bin Ghadayer, Mickael Barzalona, 5: 3-0-0, $212,701) Mimi Kahushi will make her first start in America after running exclusively at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. She got into the Kentucky Oaks with a win in the UAE Oaks (G3), which came after two victories against males in the UAE 1,000 Guineas and its prep race. Mimi Kakushi has not run since February, and with the poor record of UAE Oaks horses on the first Friday in May she is up against it. Toss.

2. The Alys Look (15-1, Connect, Brad Cox, Javier Castellano, 6: 2-1-2, $190,528) The Alys Look is the longest price of the three Brad Cox fillies in the Oaks. She won the Silverbulletday in January and looked good doing so with a career-high Beyer Speed Figure of 89, which is topped by only one filly in the field. Her return race in the five-horse field in the Fair Ground Oaks (G2) was disappointing when she finished a distant third in a widely spread field. Use underneath.

3. Gambling Girl (15-1, Dialed In, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 9: 2-2-2, $257,410) This New York-bred has not won a race since September, when she won a state-bred stakes at Aqueduct. On the Oaks trail she picked up points in four starts, with three of them at the Big A and the other a fourth in the Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn. It is not often that a Todd Pletcher Oaks horse comes with morning-line odds of 15-1. Use underneath.

4. Southlawn (8-1, Pioneerof the Nile, Norm Casse, Reylu Gutierrez, 7: 3-0-0, $318,369) Southland became a now horse when she came back to race as a 3-year-old. She was a hard horse to handle as a juvenile, with only one victory in a five-horse field at Ellis Park. In two starts at Fair Grounds this year Southland was a dominant winner twice, using stalking moves to win a February allowance by eight lengths and then the Oaks by more than three lengths. She could easily make another improvement in the run for the lilies. Top choice.

5. Wonder Wheel (12-1, Into Mischief, Mark Casse, Joel Rosario, 7: 4-2-0, $1,578,225) Wonder Wheel was the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and then the division champion. She headed into 2023 as the likely Kentucky Oaks favorite but did not win either of her starts. She lost a tight finish in the Suncoast at Tampa Bay Downs and then was a disappointing sixth in the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland. Last year she had success on the lead, stalking and then as a deep closer in the Breeders’ Cup. Who would have thought just a few months ago that this champion would come with 12-1 odds? Tyler Gaffalione gets off, but Joel Rosario takes over. Use underneath.

6. Botanical (4-1, Medaglia d’Oro, Brad Cox, Chris Landeros, 6: 4-1-0, $374,410) Botanical is the second Brad Cox filly, and she is riding a four-race winning streak on the Tapeta at Turfway Park that goes back to November. She won on the lead twice and stalked twice, and each time she was a heavy favorite. She began her career with two starts on the turf. Botantical is the only filly in the field with a Beyer Speed Figure in the 90s. Winners on the synthetic track have done well recently when moving to the dirt at major tracks such as Keeneland. Win contender.

7. Wet Paint (5-2*, Blame, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 6: 4-1-0, $689,000) The third Brad Cox runner is the morning-line favorite based on three victories in a row on the Oaks trail in 2023. All three were at Oaklawn and two of them were on wet, sealed tracks. In her last two starts she got out of the gate slowly and had to run from the back of large fields. Another slow start in this field of 14 will make it difficult for the favorite. The one to beat.

8. Promiseher America (30-1, American Pharoah, Ray Handal, Jorge Vargas Jr., 4: 2-1-0, $198,138) Promiseher America is another filly who comes into the race with consecutive victories. For this daughter of American Pharoah, she broke her maiden at Aqueduct in February going a one-turn mile and then won the Gazelle (G3) going the Oaks distance as pace presser. Toss.

9. And Tell Me Nolies (15-1, Arrogate, Peter Miller, Ramon Vasquez, 7: 3-2-0, $472,800) This filly had a very good 2-year-old campaign with three wins in a row moving from her maiden victory to a pair of graded stakes at Del Mar and Santa Anita. Shipping to Kentucky, she was eighth in the Breeders’ Cup. This year, the daughter of Arrogate had a pair of seconds behind the unbeaten Baffert filly Faiza. Her speed figures were consistently slower than many fillies in this field. Toss.

10. Flying Connection (15-1, Nyquist, Todd Fincher, Florent Geroux, 7: 4-0-1, $294,700) Flying Connection is the Oaks representative from the Southwest. Todd Fincher is the biggest name in racing in New Mexico, and this filly won her two most recent starts at Sunland Park in the Island Fashion and the Oaks. Toss.

11. Defining Purpose (12-1, Cross Traffic, Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez Jr., 7: 3-0-1, $543,688) Defining Purpose was a pace-pressing winner of the Ashland at Keeneland as a 20-1 long shot. In prior graded stakes she was sixth in the Honeybee (G3) and fifth in the Golden Rod (G2). Long-shot winners like Defining Purpose rarely run well in their next starts. Toss.

12. Dorth Vader (20-1, Girvin, Mike Yates, Luis Saez, 8: 4-0-1, $339,633) This Florida-bred will leave the Sunshine State for the first time after winning four times in eight starts. Her first two wins were in state-bred races at Gulfstream Park, and then Dorth Vader won the Sandpiper at Tampa. She was a 46-1 long-shot winner of the Davona Dale (G2), which got her into the Kentucky Oaks. In the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) she had the lead in the stretch but faded to fourth. Toss.

13. Affirmative Lady (10-1, Arrogate, Graham Motion, John Velazquez, 6: 2-1-2, $270,568) Affirmative Lady won her last two starts for Graham Motion at Gulfstream with her maiden victory and then the Gulfstream Park Oaks by two lengths. John Velazquez gets back on board this improving horse. Live long shot.

14. Pretty Mischievous (10-1, Into Mischief, Brendan Walsh, Tyler Gaffalione, 6: 4-1-1, $501,310) Like Affirmative Lady, Pretty Mischievous will have to deal with an outside post position but has excellent recent form and attractive odds. Tyler Gaffalione gets back on this Godolphin home-bred who won four of six starts. She won the first two starts of her career at Churchill. This year on the road to the Kentucky Oaks, she won the Untapable and the Rachel Alexandra (G2) and then was second behind Southlawn. Live long shot.

Also eligible:

15 AE. Taxed (20-1, Collected, Randy Morse, Rafael Bejarano, 7: 1-2-0, $199,644)

16 AE. Julia Shining (15-1, Curlin, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 4: 2-0-2, $262,575)

17 AE. Hoosier Philly (30-1, Into Mischief, Tom Amoss, Edgar Morales, 5: 3-0-1, $478,610)

Summary: The overall evaluation of this Oaks field is that they are a slow group, and that shows when you search their past performances and find only one horse with a Beyer Speed Figure above 90. In a practical sense, that means this is a balanced field where many fillies can win the Oaks just by running their best race.

Brad Cox has the two top choices on the morning line in Wet Paint and Botanical, with a combined seven wins in a row. Put together Cox and the winning streaks and that means those two fillies are going to be underlays in this Oaks field.

Those are favorites that I have to play against because they will be so heavily bet. Southlawn has been a significantly improved filly in her two starts this year and, at 8-1 on the morning line, will be the top choice to use in two-day Oaks/Derby daily doubles. That 20-horse Derby field can produce excellent payouts.