Kentucky Oaks 2019: Early odds and analysis

Bellafina, unbeaten in three starts this year, will be a heavy favorite in this week's $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks. The feature on the first Friday in May at Churchill Downs will be run at a mile and an eighth with a full field of 14 expected.

Four of the past five runnings of the Oaks were won by trainers that have a horse in this prospective field. Bob Baffert prevailed in 2017 with Abel Tasman; in 2016 Cathryn Sophia won for John Servis; Lovely Maria was victorious in 2015 for Larry Jones; and Steve Asmussen trained Untapable in 2014.

The post-position draw will take place at 11 a.m. Monday, and post time for the race, the 11th of 13, is 6:12 p.m. Friday.

For now, here is a full field analysis with the early morning line by the Horse Racing Nation staff. Horses listed in order of qualifying points earned. Note that Cookie Dough and Dunbar Road are next on the preference list should a defection occur.

1) Bellafina [HRN odds: 7-5 – (132) 1^st Santa Anita Oaks (G1) – Quality Road – S. Callaghan/F. Prat – 8: 6-1-0 - $1,068,000] The $800,000 2-year-old purchase is unbeaten in three starts this year. The victories all came while on the lead or pressing the pace with two of them ending in open-length wins when she was an odds-on favorite. She will also be the top choice in the Oaks. Her only race outside of California ended in a fourth-place finish, and that came in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies that ran last fall at Churchill Downs. Well-deserved favorite.

2) Champagne Anyone [HRN odds: 8-1 – (113) 1^st Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) – Street Sense – I. Wilkes/C. Landeros – 7: 3-0-3 - $267,950] After a Keeneland allowance win as a juvenile, she moved up to graded stakes racing company, where the best she could do was third in three tries until she broke through with a pace pressing victory at Gulfstream. Adding blinkers for that race seemed to make the difference. I’d prefer that she go back to her off-the-pace running style in here. Win contender.

3) Street Band [HRN odds: 12-1 – (105) 1^st Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) – Istan –L. Jones/ S. Doyle – 8: 3-0-2 - $310,325] Jockey Sophie Doyle will try and join Rosie Napravnik as the second female jockey to ever win the Kentucky Oaks. She is teamed up with a trainer who has already triumphed here three times. Street Band started five times at Fair Grounds and saved the best for last when she rallied from fourth, took control of the race entering the stretch and drew off to win by almost four lengths. Win contender.

4) Lady Apple [HRN odds: 10-1 – (100) 1^st Fantasy (G3) – Curlin – S. Asmussen/R. Santana Jr. – 7: 3-2-0 - $452,200] Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen won plenty this year at Oaklawn Park, with Lady Apple providing three of hose scores. She went from a maiden victory to an allowance and then the Fantasy in a period of about two months. The daughter of Curlin was versatile on that win streak with two victories on the front end and then a stalking trip to earn her 100 qualifying points. Good at the right time.

5) Out For A Spin [HRN odds: 30-1 – (100) 1^st Ashland (G1) – Hard Spun – D. Stewart/I. Ortiz – 5: 3-0-1 - $354,903] As is frequently the case with trainer Dallas Stewart, this filly’s big victory in the Ashland came at long odds of 52-1. Even though she went into that race off a clear-cut allowance win she was overlooked at the windows. The Hard Spun filly pushed the pace, took the lead at the top of the stretch and held off Restless Rider to win by a neck. She benefitted from a speed favoring Keeneland race track on that day. There will be plenty of other quality runners who want to be contending the early pace. Use underneath.

6) Liora [HRN odds: 30-1 – (71) 2^nd Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) – Candy Ride – W. Catalano/C. Hill – 7: 2-2-1 - $302,580] Liora is another filly that likes to be forwardly placed in her races. She won the Golden Rod (G2) last year at 24-1 and has two place finishes in her last two races on the road to the Oaks despite adding blinkers last time. She is up against it with plenty of quality speed to deal with in this field. Toss.

7) Restless Rider [HRN odds: 6-1 – (62) 2^nd Ashland – Distorted Humor – K. McPeek/B. Hernandez Jr. – 7: 3-4-0 - $880,160] Restless Rider has never finished worse than second in her seven career starts. Since winning the Alcibiades (G1) last year, she has three place finishes in a row, including losses by a nose and a neck in her last two. She has only one start this year, and that was by design in the Ashland. Trainer Kenny McPeek is adept at getting horses ready for a target race. There will pace to run into, and I expect her to be right there at the finish. My top choice.

8) Serengeti Empress [HRN odds: 15-1 – (60) 7^th Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) – Alternation – T. Amoss/Jose Ortiz – 7: 4-0-0 - $331,870] In an edition of the Oaks that is loaded with front-running types, Serengeti Empress looks like the fastest. When she gets to the lead, she can be very difficult to beat, but the question is whether she is fully recovered from the bleeding incident in the Fair Ground Oaks. She has worked well since given some time to recover, but respiratory bleeding can leave damage to the lungs that takes time to heal. Keeping in mind that the Oaks is the toughest field that she has ever faced leaves me worried. Toss.

9) Motion Emotion [HRN odds: 10-1 – (60) 2^nd Fantasy (G2) – Take Charge Indy – T. Van Berg/M. Smith – 6: 2-2-0 - $238,345] The list of horses that like to run as part of the early pace is long, and Motion Emotion has showed that pattern in her last four races. Those efforts all came at Oaklawn Park and include her maiden score, an allowance victory, and then the two place efforts on the road to the Kentucky Oaks. This will be her first try at nine furlongs, and she will have plenty of company early in this race. Toss.

10) Jaywalk [HRN odds: 10-1 – (55) 3^rd Ashland (G1) – Cross Traffic – John Servis/J. Castellano – 7: 4-1-1 - $1,444,000] After two disappointing efforts this year for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and division champion, one has to wonder what to expect in the Oaks. Back at the beginning of her career, Jaywalk needed her first race and then began her four-race winning streak as a 2-year-old. It’s possible that she will be back to top form in her third start back this year, but it may also be that she is not the same top filly. There is so much speed in here that the task is going to be harder than any race in her career. Toss.

11) Chocolate Kisses [HRN odds: 20-1 – (51) 6^th Ashland (G1) – Candy Ride – M. Casse/J. Leparoux – 8: 3-1-1 - $237,950] I picked Chocolate Kisses to win the Ashland, but on that day she caught a speed-favoring track and mustered no rally. Her victory in the Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn Park came after big closing move from 12 lengths back in ninth position. There is no question that she will get an ideal setup in the Oaks, and if her performance at Keeneland was due to the pace, and not her form, Chocolate Kisses could be dangerous at a price. Major contender.

12) Jeltrin [HRN odds: 30-1 – (51) 1^st Davona Dale (G2) – Tapizar – Alexis Delgado/L. Saez – 6: 2-1-1 - $158,588] Jeltrin qualified for the Kentucky Oaks after she upset the Davona Dale at odds of 51-1. Based at Gulfstream Park, she ran four times in less than three months and now heads to Churchill Downs on a two-month layoff. The daughter of Tapizar has never raced outside of Florida, or around two-turns for that matter. To her credit, she did win the Davona Dale from a stalking position, and that would be the right style for this event. Still, this is asking a lot. Toss.

13) Positive Spirit [HRN odds: 30-1 – (50) 2^nd Gazelle (G2) – Pioneerof the Nile – R. Brisset/M. Franco – 6: 2-2-1 - $268,700] This filly has already gone the nine-furlong Oaks distance when she finished second in the Gazelle at Aqueduct. On that day she set the pace but couldn't keep up with the winner, Always Shopping, who's skipping the Oaks. Positive Spirit rallied from behind early in her career, and that running style would be ideal to return to here. She may be an improving filly for Rodolphe Brisset. Live longshot.

14) Flor de la Mar [HRN odds: 8-1 – (40) 2^nd Santa Anita Oaks (G1) – Tiznow – B. Baffert/J. Rosario – 3: 1-1-0 - $114,140] The most lightly raced filly in the field has only run at Santa Anita, and she was no match most recently for Bellafina, finishing 5 1/4 lengths back in the Santa Anita Oaks. She'll have to improve, and that's possible with Baffert her trainer. But it's also likely she takes money above her merit given the connections. Toss.