Kentucky Jockey Club is not necessarily good path to Derby
As sure as the days get cold this time of year in Louisville, there will be no shortage of declarations that Saturday’s victor in the Grade 2, $400,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes will have the benefit of a win over the track where the Kentucky Derby will be run May 6.
Only lately has that come to matter.
Mandaloun, through his promotion over the disqualified Medina Spirit in 2021, and Rich Strike, through his 80-1 shocker this year, were the first Derby winners with previous triumphs at Churchill Downs since Super Saver won the 2009 Kentucky Jockey Club and 2010 Derby.
Click here for Churchill Downs entries and results.
A big reason that the win-over-the-track angle has been unreliable has been the annual closing of Churchill Downs for the winter. That leaves the track with no Derby points preps for horses who already have turned 3. The 2-year-olds who win the Iroquois (G3) in September or the Kentucky Jockey Club in November might have blossomed early only to have their rivals surpass them in the spring.
Seven Derby winners used the Kentucky Jockey Club as a prep since the race was inaugurated in 1920. Super Saver was one of five who won both races and one of only two who did so since the Great Depression.
| Derby winner | *Ky. JC | Trainer |
|---|---|---|
| 1921 Behave Yourself | 3rd | Herbert J. Thompson |
| 1928 Reigh Count | 1st | Bert Mitchell |
| 1929 Clyde Van Dusen | 1st | Clyde Van Dusen |
| 1931 Twenty Grand | 1st | James Rowe Jr. |
| 1974 Cannonade | 1st | Woody Stephens |
| 1998 Real Quiet | 3rd | Bob Baffert |
| 2010 Super Saver | 1st | Todd Pletcher |
| *Previous year |
The number of Kentucky Jockey Club graduates who made it into the Derby starting gate rose in the last decade. The average was 1.25 per year between 2000 and 2011. In the 11 years since, it was up to 2.09.
Few of those horses have had much success running for the roses. Of the 38 who took part in both races since the 1999-2000 season, only three finished in the money in the Derby – first-place Super Saver in 2010, third-place Gun Runner in 2016 and runner-up Tiz the Law in the COVID September of 2020.
Some of that may be owed to the style of horses coming out of the Kentucky Jockey Club. Since 2012-13, only 7 of 21 who also started in the Derby were pacesetters or stalkers. Those were the tactics of eight consecutive horses who crossed the finish line first in the Derby until Rich Strike this year.
| Year | Horse | Quirin | Ky JC | *Derby |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Smile Happy | P 4 | 1st | 8th |
| Classic Causeway | E 8 | 2nd | 11th | |
| White Abarrio | E/P 6 | 3rd | 16th | |
| 2020 | Keepmeinmind | S 2 | 7th | 6th |
| 2019 | Tiz the Law | E/P 7 | 3rd | 2nd |
| Enforceable | S 0 | 4th | 7th | |
| South Bend | P 0 | 6th | 15th | |
| 2018 | Plus Que Parfait | E/P 2 | 2nd | **8th |
| 2017 | Bravazo | E/P 5 | 10th | 6th |
| Lone Sailor | S 3 | 5th | 8th | |
| Enticed | P 3 | 1st | 14th | |
| Promises Fulfilled | E 8 | 3rd | 15th | |
| 2016 | McCraken | S 3 | 1st | 8th |
| 2015 | Gun Runner | P 4 | 4th | 3rd |
| Mo Tom | S 0 | 3rd | 8th | |
| Mor Spirit | P 3 | 2nd | 10th | |
| Tom's Ready | S 1 | 8th | 13th | |
| 2014 | ||||
| 2013 | Tapiture | E/P 4 | 1st | 15th |
| 2012 | Will Take Charge | P 3 | 13th | 8th |
| Java's War | P 0 | 6th | 13th | |
| Frac Daddy | P 3 | 2nd | 16th | |
| 2011 | Optimizer | S 0 | 4th | 11th |
| Gemologist | E/P 7 | 1st | 16th | |
| 2010 | Santiva | E/P 4 | 1st | 6th |
| 2009 | Super Saver | E 6 | 1st | 1st |
| 2008 | ||||
| 2007 | Anak Nakal | P 1 | 1st | 7th |
| Cool Coal Man | E/P 5 | 7th | 15th | |
| 2006 | Any Given Saturday | E/P 5 | 2nd | 8th |
| Dominican | P 3 | 3rd | 11th | |
| 2005 | Private Vow | E/P 6 | 1st | 14th |
| 2004 | Greater Good | S 2 | 1st | 13th |
| 2003 | The Cliff's Edge | S 0 | 1st | 5th |
| 2002 | Ten Cents a Shine | S 2 | 2nd | 8th |
| Domestic Dispute | P 3 | 9th | 10th | |
| 2001 | Request for Parole | E/P 7 | 2nd | 5th |
| 2000 | Dollar Bill | P 2 | 1st | 15th |
| 1999 | Captain Steve | P 3 | 1st | 8th |
| High Yield | E 8 | 6th | 15th | |
| *Following year | ||||
| **Promoted | ||||
| E - Early (pacesetter) | ||||
| E/P - Early presser (stalker) | ||||
| P - Presser (mid-pack) | ||||
| S - Sustainer (closer) |
Forwardly placed has been a term synonymous with Derby success in the last decade, but it has been just the opposite for the Kentucky Jockey Club.
When Smile Happy scored last year by making up four places and four lengths, he was the sixth winner in the previous seven runnings of the November prep to have erased at least 3 1/2 lengths. Since 1991, only Exploit in 1998, Super Saver in 2009 and El Kabeir in 2014 led from gate to wire in the Kentucky Jockey Club.
| Year | Winner | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | Str | Fin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Smile Happy | 5 - 4 | 5 - 2 1/4 | 4 - 3/4 | 1 | 1 |
| 2020 | Keepmeinmind | 9 - 5 1/4 | 9 - 5 1/4 | 9 - 4 1/4 | 3 - 2 | 1 |
| 2019 | Silver Prospector | 5 - 3 1/2 | 6 - 3 1/2 | 5 - 1 1/4 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 |
| 2018 | Signalman | 6 - 5 | 4 - 3 1/2 | 4 - 1 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 |
| 2017 | Enticed | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 4 - 2 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 |
| 2016 | McCraken | 9 - 8 1/2 | 9 - 5 | 6 - 3 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 |
| 2015 | Airoforce | 8 - 3 3/4 | 7 - 3 1/2 | 5 - 2 | 3 - 1/2 | 1 |
| 2014 | El Kabeir | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2013 | Tapiture | 5 - 3 | 2 - 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2012 | Uncaptured | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 2 - hd | 1 |
| 2011 | Gemologist | 3 - 1 | 3 - 2 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2010 | Santiva | 2 - 2 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2009 | Super Saver | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2008 | Beethoven | 5 - 3 | 4 - 5 | 2 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2007 | Anak Nakal | 4 - 2 3/4 | 4 - 2 1/2 | 4 - 1 3/4 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 |
| 2006 | Tiz Wonderful | 2 - hd | 2 - hd | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
| 2005 | Private Vow | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1 | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
| 2004 | Greater Good | 7 - 8 1/4 | 8 - 10 1/4 | 7 - 6 1/4 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 |
| 2003 | The Cliff's Edge | 8 - 4 3/4 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2002 | Soto | 10 - 16 1/4 | 10 - 14 1/4 | 8 - 6 1/4 | 6 - 1 1/2 | 1 |
| 2001 | Repent | 6 - 5 | 5 - 2 1/2 | 5 - 3 | 3 - hd | 1 |
| 2000 | Dollar Bill | 5 - 4 1/2 | 5 - 1 3/4 | 4 - 2 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 |
| 1999 | Captain Steve | 3 - 1 1/2 | 2 - 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 1998 | Exploit | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 1997 | Cape Town | 4 - 2 1/4 | 3 - 2 1/2 | 4 - 2 1/2 | 3 - 3 | 1 |
| 1996 | Concerto | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
| 1995 | Ide | 2 - hd | 2 - 1 | 4 - 1 3/4 | 3 - 1/2 | 1 |
| 1994 | Jambalaya Jazz | 5 - 2 1/2 | 5 - 4 1/2 | 1 | ||
| 1993 | War Deputy | 8 - 8 1/2 | 8 - 7 1/2 | 7 - 8 1/2 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 |
| 1992 | Wild Gale | 8 - 9 3/4 | 10 - 7 1/2 | 9 - 7 3/4 | 3 - 2 1/2 | 1 |
| 1991 | Dance Floor | 3 - 4 | 3 - 6 | 2 - 3 | 1 | 1 |
Instant Coffee, a maiden winner who finished fourth in last month’s Breeders’ Futurity (G1) for trainer Brad Cox, and Freedom Trail, who is 2-for-2 for John Terranova, are the two horses this year who fit the closer’s profile. Red Route One, a maiden victor for Steve Asmussen, also has come from off the pace in his races, most recently a fifth-place result in slop of the Street Sense (G3) last month at Churchill Downs.