Kentucky Downs picks: Byron King's Saturday selections

By Byron King/Kentucky Downs
Photo: Eclipse Sportswire
Byron King, a freelance turf writer, publicist and handicapper based in Louisville, is setting Kentucky Downs’ morning line odds and analyzing the stakes races as part of the Runhappy Meet’s publicity team. The longtime Daily Racing Form writer has covered and handicapped Kentucky Downs for two decades.

RELATED: Saturday's Kentucky Downs entries, post times
Seventh Race: One Dreamer
The One Dreamer, named in honor of the 1994 Breeders’ Cup Distaff upsetter, kicks off four stakes Saturday at Kentucky Downs. Here, let’s go value shopping with STAVE (#3, 6-1), who might be overlooked by the public. She was a mildly disappointing fifth in her latest at Ellis Park when beaten 3 ¼ lengths in the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf, but that was the first time she has been out of the exacta in four starts this year. She ran a quality third over this course last year behind graded winner Summer Luck and has the potential to be an attractive price with some of the shine off her recent form. LIMARI (#9, 5-2) is the most likely winner -- that is, if she does not beat herself, which she did in each of her last two starts by breaking tardily. Even despite her slow beginnings, costly for a speedy type, she managed third-place finishes in those outings, coming in the Grade 3 Mint Julep at Churchill Downs and the Indiana General Assembly Distaff at Indiana Grand. CLASSY ACT (#4, 9-2), placed in a couple of graded stakes last year on dirt, including once behind champion Monomoy Girl in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds. She transitioned to turf in her latest and just missed in a fine effort to be second in the Kentucky Downs Preview Ladies Turf, outperforming off the horses in this race that exit that specific event. A frontrunner, she can hit the brakes occasionally but is capable of a banner effort when she puts it all together. SMART EMMA (#10, 6-1), third in the Kentucky Downs Preview Ladies Turf, is in career-best form, winning an allowance at Churchill Downs in May over STAVE, in addition to her recent stakes placing at Ellis Park.
Selections: 3-9-4-10

2019 One Dreamer (LS)

Eighth Race: Tourist Mile
With a $750,000 purse, the Tourist Mile is among the richest turf races at this distance in North America. With so much at stake, it should come as no surprise that the race drew an overflow field, with horses converging on Kentucky Downs from all over the country. One of those shippers, NEXT SHARES (#2, 7-2), invades from California, where he has been firing bullet works at San Luis Rey training center and Del Mar in preparation for his first start since May. Though he's coming off three consecutive off-the-board finishes, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt in this comeback spot. All three of those losses came in Grade 1 company, and he was outstanding in winning the Old Friends Stakes over this course last fall, a race before he won the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile. HEMBREE (#4, 4-1) is another battle-tested type with an affinity for the local course, having won an allowance here last September. He twice ran second in graded stakes in June and July in New York before finishing third in the Grade 1 Fourstardave last out at Saratoga Aug. 10. GREAT WIDE OPEN (#10, 10-1) is similar to NEXT SHARES in that he received a freshening after going off form in the spring. He, too, ran well at Kentucky Downs last year with a runner-up finish in this race, a start before running second in the Shadwell Turf Mile. MR. CUB (#9, 8-1) was a gritty winner off the bench at Kentucky Downs, providing a fine performance from a horse that does not extend himself in his morning training. That race likely advanced his fitness, hinting that an even better race could be forthcoming.
Selections: 2-4-10-9

2019 Tourist Mile (LS)

Ninth Race: Exacta Systems Juvenile Fillies
Having once raced for a claiming price and coming from Gulfstream Park, SUNSET PROMISE (#10, 5-1) may slip through the wagering cracks and start at an overlaid price in the $500,000 Juvenile Fillies. Regardless of her beginning her career for a maiden $50,000 tag, from which trainer Mike Maker claimed her, she seems to be a filly of high quality. Two starts on grass have resulted in a runner-up finish and a blowout maiden win, and her speed figures suggest she is roughly as fast as anyone in this lineup. She also has already raced as far as 7 ½ furlongs, unlike second choice FLY SO PRETTY (#12, 7-2), who is stretching out after exiting a pair of 5 ½-furlong events. Regardless, the latter is a major player. She was good enough to break her maiden at Saratoga this summer, and was third with a wide trip after debuting at Churchill Downs a race before that. Both the third- and fourth-place finishers behind her at Saratoga have returned to win by open lengths. ASK BAILEY (#1, 8-1) has done little wrong in two starts at Ellis Park, running a fast-closing second in her first outing and then breaking her maiden once stretched out to Saturday's distance of a mile. WEEKEND FUN (#6, 5-1) is a maiden, but a talented one who ran third at Churchill in her unveiling and then second at Saratoga in a swift maiden race. Both of those races came on dirt, but she is by an elite grass sire in More Than Ready and out of a dam that twice won on grass. Her Hall of Fame trainer, Steve Asmussen, has given her a couple of test spins on turf in workouts at Saratoga.
Selections: 10-12-1-6

2019 Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies (LS)

Tenth Race: Gainesway Farm Juvenile
Last up is the Juvenile, another $500,000 race at a mile, this one for males. Here, OUR COUNTRY (#9, 7-2) is the choice having dominated maidens in his second start at Saratoga a race after debuting with a fourth in a salty grass maiden heat there. His future seems bright. Much improved with blinkers added, PEACE ACHIEVED (#12,6-1) graduated from the maiden ranks by 6 ¾ lengths July 27 at Ellis Park and a couple of sharp works at Churchill Downs since suggest that further development may be forthcoming. ARE YOU KITTEN ME (#5, 4-1) also looms prominently after a maiden victory on the grass in New York, determinedly winning at first asking in a blanket finish July 27 at Saratoga. He starts for winning Kentucky Downs connections and commands respect. DOC BOY (#8, 8-1) also has the talent to be involved. He ran fourth in an off-the-grass race at Belmont Park before jogging to an easy win at Laurel Park on grass July 19. 
Selections: 9-12-5-8

2019 Kentucky Downs Juvenile Stakes (LS)

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