Kentucky Downs picks: Bryon King's Old Friends Stakes selections

Byron King, a freelance turf writer, publicist and handicapper based in Louisville, is setting Kentucky Downs’ morning line odds and analyzing the stakes races as part of the Runhappy Meet’s publicity team. The longtime Daily Racing Form writer has covered and handicapped Kentucky Downs for two decades.

Thursday’s renewal of the Old Friends Stakes at Kentucky Downs has a tough act to follow, coming a year after the 2018 winner, Next Shares, went on to win the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland. But the lineup this year, in which 2018 Breeders’ Cup Mile runner-up Catapult is the headliner, appears to have the potential to produce another high-quality winner.

The race, typical of a Kentucky Downs contest, is loaded with depth. Twelve horses are in the body of the field and another two are listed as “also eligibles,” ready to move into the starting lineup if a scratch or two occurs. The large cast is also loaded with talent. In addition to Catapult, multiple graded stakes winner Mr. Misunderstood competes, as well as millionaire Undrafted, just to name two.

The upset choice is #2 CULLUM ROAD, who narrowly missed over the Kentucky Downs turf course last year when second, beaten a head, in the Dueling Grounds Derby to eventual Bowling Green (G2) winner Channel Cat. That day he outran the public’s expectations at odds in excess of 19-1, finishing 3 ¼ lengths clear of the third-place finisher.

The affinity he displayed for the course suggests the horse could bounce back from a couple of disappointing efforts in his last two races. He picks up Saratoga’s leading rider, Jose Ortiz, who topped the Kentucky Downs standings in 2018.

Those strengths noted, his last couple of races have been disappointing, with a ninth in the Wise Dan (G2) and a sixth in the Arlington Handicap (G3). But neither race seemed to set up to his liking, particularly the Arlington Handicap, when he was hung wide when racing close to a slow pace.

#4 MULTIPLIER was sixth in a prior appearance at Kentucky Downs last year, though in the signature race of the meet, the Kentucky Turf Cup (G3), and after being too aggressive early going 1 ½ miles. The mile-and-70-yards distance of the Old Friends seems to better suit him. His finest efforts this year have come between a mile and a mile and sixteenth.

#3 MR. MISUNDERSTOOD is 11-for-18 on grass but is winless in both of his races in 2019, both times as the favorite. A wide trip likely cost him last out when third at Ellis Park Aug. 4 in the Kentucky Downs Preview Tourist Mile, and he may be ready to improve upon that effort in the third start of his current form cycle.

Post time for the Old Friends is 4:48 p.m. CT.