Kentucky Derby trail 2025: Blue Grass odds and analysis

The Grade 1, $1.25 million Blue Grass Stakes drew a field of seven 3-year-olds that will run the 1 1/8-mile distance. The race will be run on Tuesday after a severe weather forecast prompted Keeneland to postpone the Saturday card. The Blue Grass is the second stop at Keeneland Race Course on the road to the Kentucky Derby 2025 and qualifying points of 100-50-25-15-10 are available to the top five finishers.

All seven of the 3-year-olds have already run on the Kentucky Derby trail. Together they earned 196 Derby points with individual totals that range from 2 to 65. Four of them are already winners on the Derby trail. Burnham Square won the Holy Bull (G3). Owen Almighty got the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) victory. East Avenue won at Keeneland in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and Chancer McPatrick took the Champagne (G1).

Here is the full-field analysis for the Blue Grass Stakes with the official track morning line odds. The Blue Grass is scheduled as race 10 out of 11 with post time set for 5:52 p.m. EST.

1. River Thames, 5-2. Maclean’s Music – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 3: 2-1-0 - $164,400. River Thames ran three times at Gulfstream Park this year beginning with an almost five-length maiden victory in January. He stretched out to a mile in an allowance and posted a 6 1/2-length win. River Thames moved onto the Derby trail where he pressed the pace in the Fountain of Youth (G2), got to the lead and missed by a neck when Sovereignty rallied. River Thames picked up 25 Derby points. Todd Pletcher won the Blue Grass four times more than any other trainer with Tapit Trice as the most recent in 2023. Win contender.

2. Render Judgment, 20-1. Blame – Kenny McPeek / Sheldon Russell – 6: 1-2-1 - $214,110. Render Judgment broke his maiden in his second career start at Churchill Downs which is his only victory. He moved to the Derby trail where he was fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and third in the Gun Runner as a 2-year-old. This year, the son of Blame was eighth in the Risen Star (G2) and then bounced back to finish second in the Virginia Derby. Those four stakes performances got him 29 Derby points. Trainer Kenny McPeek had a victory in this race in 2013 with Java’s War. Toss.

3. Burnham Square, 4-1. Liam’s Map – Ian Wilkes / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 5: 2-1-1 - $222,130. Burnham Square needed three starts to break his maiden which he did at Gulfstream at the end of 2024 by nine-lengths going two-turns. He was a winner in his first appearance on the Derby trail in the Holy Bull (G3) when he rallied from last to win by almost two-lengths. Burnham Square stayed at Gulfstream and finished fourth in the Fountain of Youth. He has 30 Derby points. Win contender.

4. Owen Almighty, 3-1. Speightstown – Brian Lynch / Jose Ortiz – 6: 3-2-0 - $484,310. Owen Almighty has six career starts and finished those races in first or second, although he was disqualified from first in the Pasco at Tampa Bay Downs. He won his first two starts including a stakes race at Ellis Park in the summer. The son of Speightstown was second in the first Derby points race. Owen Almighty took a liking to the track at Tampa in the Pasco, a second-place result in the Sam F. Davis and then a front-end score in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). His 65 Derby points already qualifies him for the run for the roses. Top Choice.

5. East Avenue, 3-1. Medaglia d’Oro – Brendan Walsh / Luan Machado – 4: 2-0-0 - $410,645. East Avenue impressed in his first two starts as a 2-year-old when he was a front-end winner of a maiden at Ellis Park and then the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland to get 10 Derby points. He stumbled badly in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to be ninth and then faded in the Risen Star. He was a heavy favorite in three of his races. Unpredictable.

6. Chancer McPatrick, 7-2. McKinzie – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat – 5: 3-1-0 - $605,000. Chancer McPatrick was undefeated in his first three races as a 2-year-old with a pair of wins at Saratoga including the Hopeful (G1). He won the Champagne (G1) at Aqueduct on the Derby trail as a deep closer in all three of those wins. He was sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and then second in the Tampa Derby. That gives him 35 Derby points. Chad Brown won the Blue Grass last year with Sierra Leone, Zandon in 2022 and Good Magic in 2018. Flavien Prat also rode Zandon. Win contender.

7. Admiral Dennis, 20-1. Constitution – Brad Cox / Luis Saez – 5: 2-0-1 - $151,050. Admiral Dennis won a maiden at Churchill in his second start and then was fourth in the Gun Runner that got him 2 Derby points. He won an allowance at Fair Grounds going two-turns in January. Back on the Derby trail he was sixth in the Rebel. Essential Quality was Brad Cox’s only winner in the Blue Grass. Luis Saez had three Blue Grass winners for three different trainers including Essential Quality for Cox. Toss.

Summary: The Blue Grass field is only seven, but if you focus on Derby trail performance then this is probably the best field of the year. With four horses that have wins on the Derby trail, there are plenty of win contenders.

The fact that Keeneland is often a speed-favoring track could provide help when trying to pick a winner from that group. Owen Almighty was an impressive front-end winner of the Tampa Bay Derby. His trainer Brian Lynch felt like he was not a horse for the classic distance of the Kentucky Derby, but he will only have to go an extra 110 yards in the Blue Grass. River Thames pressed the pace in the Fountain of Youth, got the lead and missed by a neck at the wire. Owen Almighty has never run a bad race in six starts and the Blue Grass is an opportunity to get a Grade 1 victory. Owen Almighty is my top choice.