How the Kentucky Derby is still possible for Early Voting

Early Voting is more likely for the Preakness Stakes than the Kentucky Derby, but trainer Chad Brown left open the possibility of a May 7 engagement at Churchill Downs depending on how things develop. So what could change between now and Monday, May 2, when horses enter America’s most famous horse race? Well, a lot. First, two pending questions. 1. The distance. Brown told Horse Racing Nation, "There’s still a question if Early Voting wants the mile-and-a-quarter." 2. The seasoning. "He has only run three times, (and) might have gotten a little tired there at the end" of the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial (G2). "I think it’s possible he’ll stretch out in time. We’re just thinking about if we want to run back in four weeks off a tough effort or wait six weeks until the Preakness." It’s a move Brown has used successfully when Cloud Computing finished third in the Wood before going on to upset champion Classic Empire in the 2017 Preakness. Still, it is the Kentucky Derby, and Brown already is well represented with Jeff Drown's Blue Grass Stakes (G1) winner Zandon. But there is no doubt that Early Voting belongs based on his runner-up finish in the Wood Memorial, which earned a 111 Brisnet Speed Rating. That ties him with Wood winner Mo Donegal and Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Taiba for the highest among this crop of 3-year-olds.

FREE past performances for 2022 Kentucky Derby contenders are available now courtesy Brisnet. So what could change to give Brown and Seth Klarman’s Klaravich Stables the confidence to run? 1. The pace scenario Early Voting is one of only three horses among the current 24 points leaders who were on the lead at the first call in their final prep. (Zozos and Summer Is Tomorrow are the others.) But there is plenty of opportunity for pace here, as Epicenter, Taiba and White Abarrio all are capable of pressing the pace, and Epicenter also has a gate-to-wire win to his credit. Interestingly enough, all three of the aforementioned pacesetters finished second in their final prep. 2. Jockey availability Jose Ortiz rode Early Voting in the Wood, but he committed to Simplification in the Kentucky Derby. Brown also uses Ortiz' brother, Irad Ortiz, but he is on Wood winner Mo Donegal. If either became available, that might sway Brown into trying the Derby. 3. Contender defections Somewhat similar to the above points, but a top choice defecting from the race could give Brown more confidence. Maybe it’s not worth taking a shot at 30-1, but 20-1 or 15-1 is a lot more interesting.
Early Voting worked four furlongs in 49.92 seconds on Saturday at Belmont Park, and Brown told the New York Racing Association media team that he would have ongoing discussions with Klarman about the Gun Runner colt's next race.