Kentucky Derby scenarios: Who has clinched, and who has not?

Trying to figure out who has clinched a spot in Kentucky Derby 2023 is a complex exercise in mathematics and hypotheticals.

Here is the easy part. Winning 100 points from a race like Saturday’s Blue Grass Stakes (G1), Santa Anita Derby (G1) or Wood Memorial (G2) means an automatic invitation. Forte, Angel of Empire, Two Phil’s, Derma Sotogake and Kingsbarns have been there and done that in other major preps.

Where it starts to get tricky is navigating the historic likelihood that 40 points will be good enough. History will be rewritten this season, because Churchill Downs decreed that a fifth horse from each prep would get points. It was complicated even more by Continuar’s acceptance of the Japan invitation and, with it, one of the 20 stalls in the starting gate.

Scribble all that onto a dry erase board, and the cut line to be assured a place in the starting gate is 56 points. At least it is now. Unless every extreme long shot fills the boards in the last four points preps, that line is certain to drop.

Rebel (G2) winner Confidence Game, with his 57 points, is in. Raise Cain, with his 54, is not there yet. But even if he does not finish in the top five this weekend in the Blue Grass, he is probably in, too. It is like a baseball team that leads its division by 15 games in early September. It may not have clinched a playoff berth yet, but it can be confident it will not be issuing refunds on the October tickets it sells.

With that in mind, this chart details the nine horses definitely in the Derby, what the next group needs to do for mathematical assurance, and who needs help to get there. Earnings from non-restricted stakes are shown, because they are the first tie-breaker.

One thing important in determining who could earn enough points to bump a top 19 horse is that only three horses can add 100 points, and another three can add 40, etc. There is also next week’s top-off race, the Lexington Stakes (G3), that is worth 20-8-6-4-2 points.

Finally, add the most realistic fact. There will be attrition. There always is. Just ask the connections of Rich Strike.

As Horse Racing Nation’s Ed DeRosa so aptly put it last spring when challenged with the arithmetic that could have squeezed out horses like Pioneer of Medina, he shrugged and said, “It’s like overbooking a flight.”