Kentucky Derby scenarios: What horses need to clinch invites

Eleven horses have clinched their invitations with at least four more horses joining them when they win the final major preps for Kentucky Derby 2025.

With yet another five already looking good based on historic precedent, that means the field of 20 should be set, right? Well, no.

Ed DeRosa’s fair odds for Kentucky Derby 2025.

While history says no horse with at least 46 qualifying points ever has been denied a run for the roses, that was only after attrition came into play. Last year Deterministic and No More Time did not use their invitations. A race-day scratch in 2023 meant top qualifier Forte went to the sidelines and joined Practical Move, Lord Miles, Wild on Ice and Blazing Sevens to eschew their Derby berths.

Derby dropouts are a tradition that has been burnished annually since the points system was inaugurated 12 years ago. So after these final big preps, the horses who are the front of the waiting list carry more than just hope for their connections.

With the Lexington (G3) on April 12 at Keeneland providing a 20-10-6-4-2 top-up opportunity, the mathematical cutline remains with Citizen Bull. He holds the earnings tiebreaker against any horse who could tie him with 60 points. The bigger question might be whether the historic 46-point minimum holds true.

As Horse Racing Nation colleague Ed DeRosa put it years ago, Derby invitations are like seats on an airplane. They always seem to be overbooked, but somehow everybody gets where they are going.

Putting it another way, this is not like West Virginia getting snubbed so North Carolina could get in the NCAA Tournament. If basketball were horse racing, somehow, the Mountaineers would have made it to Churchill Downs.

Other than the weather postponement of the Blue Grass (G1) at Lexington from Saturday to Tuesday, one other complication is unprecedented. Flood Zone, who won the Gotham (G3), has 50 points on the main Kentucky Derby trail, historically enough to qualify but not mathematically yet. If he were to win or finish second in the UAE Derby (G2), he would clinch via the separate Europe-Middle East path that now includes the Meydan race. Flood Zone could have two ways to claim his berth at Churchill Downs.

The rule for the Europe-Middle East road says, “No invitation will be extended beyond the top four point-earners, but if a horse also qualifies through America’s (road), the invite will be extended to the next eligible horse.” A Kentucky Derby spokesperson said the U.S. invitation would take priority, meaning the third-place horse in the UAE Derby could get a Kentucky invitation if Flood Zone is in the top two.

That complication aside, these are the scenarios showing what horses need to do Saturday and Tuesday either to clinch their Kentucky Derby invitations or become probables based on the 46-point history. Those with the double asterisk are not eligible unless their connections pay a $3,000 Triple Crown nomination fee before the close of business Monday.