Kentucky Derby scenarios: 1 horse holds fate for 1 open spot

Far beneath the debate about whether Sierra Leone or Fierceness is the more worthy favorite for Kentucky Derby 2024, there is just one spot left to be clinched in the 20-horse starting gate. At least for now.

It comes down to Hades next weekend in the last of the points races. If he wins the Grade 3, $400,000 Lexington Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland, he is in. If he does not, Tampa Bay Derby runner-up No More Time comes off the bench and gets the last spot in the main field.

All this presumes the Europe invitation is turned down, something that has happened pretty much every time it has been offered. Bracken’s Laugh has first dibs after winning Saturday in the Cardinal at Chelmsford City, but his trainer Richard Hughes told Racing Post there are no plans to leave England. The next three in the standings could say yes, but since they were not nominated for the Triple Crown, there is a $200,000 reason to figure they will not be supplemented for the $5 million classic.

Hades, who was 3-for-3 before he finished fifth in the Florida Derby (G1), is the only horse among the 10 entered for the Lexington who controls his fate. The race is worth 20-10-6-4-2 qualifying points to the top five finishers. A victory would get him to 50 points and, with the earnings tiebreaker, 15th place in the standings.

Encino, who was scratched from Saturday’s Blue Grass (G1) and re-aimed for the Lexington, could move ahead of Grand Mo the First atop the Derby waiting list with a win next weekend. Liberal Arts and Lucky Jeremy also could join the stand-bys with a Lexington victory. After that, the rest of the next weekend’s field would be playing the spoilers’ role.

If Hades were to lose the Lexington, he still could be among the horses in line for the four also-eligible entries into the Derby. Right now he is on the list behind Grand Mo the First, Common Defense and third-place Blue Grass finisher Epic Ride.

Because dropouts are inevitable, arithmetic is not the only way into the big gate at Churchill Downs. Six horses who qualified for last year’s race did not make it, including top two point-getters Forte and Practical Move. Eventual 80-1 winner Rich Strike got in two years ago after five others dropped out. In 2022, 12 of the horses who dominoed their way into the top 20 after the Lexington did not start the Derby.

Under the current qualifying system that is in its 11th year, these were the horses who came and went from the Derby before it was run. The standings column shows where they stood right after the final points race each spring, according to what was posted at the time by Churchill Downs.

Unforeseen circumstances are also disruptive. Two years ago Classic Causeway was scratched out of his place in the top 20 just as Timberlake has been this year. Then connections changed their minds.

As one Churchill Downs spokesperson put it, “That’s why pencils have erasers.”