Kentucky Derby prep trends: Tampa Bay Derby pace & style
Based on some quirky history, George Weaver-trained maiden Sturdy might have the best chance to come out of Saturday’s Grade 3, $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby and win Kentucky Derby 2024.
Street Sense in 2007 and Super Saver in 2010 were the only two graduates of the Tampa Bay Downs race who went on to wear the roses at Churchill Downs. Should S somehow serve successful seasons, Sturdy sillily seems sensibly situated.
Wordplay aside, the Mitole colt Sturdy does display a closing style that Tapit Trice used to win the Tampa Bay Derby last spring. Coming from off the pace has worked for four of the last seven winners. On the other hand, seven of the 11 victors in the Kentucky Derby points era were on or near the early lead.
Good luck finding a pattern looking at the Equibase chart calls for the winners since 2000:
| Year | Winner | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | Str | Fin | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Tapit Trice | 11 - 8 3/4 | 9 - 4 1/4 | 9 - 3 3/4 | 8 - 4 1/4 | 1 | *1-2 |
| 2022 | Classic Causeway | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | *4-5 |
| 2021 | Helium | 10 - 6 3/4 | 5 - 3 | 2 - 1 | 1 | 1 | 15-1 |
| 2020 | King Guillermo | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 49-1 |
| 2019 | Tacitus | 6 - 8 | 6 - 10 1/2 | 7 - 8 | 3 - 2 | 1 | 8-1 |
| 2018 | Quip | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 | 19-1 |
| 2017 | Tapwrit | 8 - 6 | 7 - 5 | 4 - 3 1/2 | 1 | 1 | *1-1 |
| 2016 | Destin | 3 - 2 | 2 - 1/2 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 7-2 |
| 2015 | Carpe Diem | 4 - 1 3/4 | 3 - 2 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 | *1-1 |
| 2014 | Ring Weekend | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14-1 |
| 2013 | Verrazano | 2 - 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | *2-5 |
| 2012 | Prospective | 6 - 7 1/2 | 4 - 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3-1 |
| 2011 | Watch Me Go | 5 - 3 | 4 - 2 1/2 | 3 - 1 | 2 - hd | 1 | 43-1 |
| 2010 | Odysseus | 2 - 2 | 2 - 1/2 | 3 - 1/2 | 4 - 1 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2009 | Musket Man | 4 - 2 1/2 | 5 - 1 1/2 | 8 - 3 | 3 - 3 | 1 | 5-1 |
| 2008 | Big Truck | 5 - 1 3/4 | 5 - 2 | 6 - 1 1/4 | 2 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 7-1 |
| 2007 | Street Sense | 4 - 6 1/2 | 4 - 7 | 4 - 4 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 6-5 |
| 2006 | Deputy Glitters | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 8-1 |
| 2005 | Sun King | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | *1-9 |
| 2004 | Limehouse | 2 - 1 1/2 | 4 - 1 1/2 | 5 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 | *4-5 |
| 2003 | Region of Merit | 3 - 3 | 3 - 3 1/2 | 2 - 2 | 2 - 1 | 1 | *8-5 |
| 2002 | Equality | 2 - 1 1/2 | 2 - 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4-1 |
| 2001 | Burning Roma | 5 - 3 1/2 | 4 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | *4-5 |
| 2000 | Wheelaway | 4 - 5 | 3 - 2 1/2 | 3 - 1 | 1 | 1 | *8-5 |
| * favorite |
Tampa Bay Downs really is not built for deep closers. At 325 yards, it has one of the shortest homestretches among tracks hosting Kentucky Derby points preps. Only Turfway Park’s 323 yards, Gulfstream Park’s 299 for its second wire and 189 for its first and Keeneland’s 281 for its first finish line are shorter.
The true key separating the winning closers from the winning pacesetters and stalkers in the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby is a lot simpler than identifying initials or style trends or how they fit the short run home. It has been all about the pace.
The chart here shows the last seven years’ fractions for the leaders at each call, not necessarily for the winner until the very end:
| Year | Winner | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | Str | Fin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Tapit Trice | 11 - 8 3/4 | 9 - 4 1/4 | 9 - 3 3/4 | 8 - 4 1/4 | 1 |
| 23.68 | 46.96 | 1:11.39 | 1:37.23 | 1:43.37 | ||
| 2022 | Classic Causeway | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 23.67 | 48.17 | 1:13.18 | 1:38.40 | 1:44.90 | ||
| 2021 | Helium | 10 - 6 3/4 | 5 - 3 | 2 - 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 23.23 | 47.06 | 1:11.38 | 1:37.09 | 1:43.55 | ||
| 2020 | King Guillermo | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 23.89 | 48.16 | 1:12.00 | 1:36.40 | 1:42.63 | ||
| 2019 | Tacitus | 6 - 8 | 6 - 10 1/2 | 7 - 8 | 3 - 2 | 1 |
| 22.79 | 45.85 | 1:09.57 | 1:35.44 | 1:41.90 | ||
| 2018 | Quip | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 |
| 24.54 | 49.48 | 1:13.78 | 1:38.32 | 1:44.72 | ||
| 2017 | Tapwrit | 8 - 6 | 7 - 5 | 4 - 3 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 23.42 | 46.65 | 1:10.57 | 1:35.75 | 1:42.35 |
Since Tapwrit was the first closer in the points era to assert himself in 2017, the winners coming from at least six lengths off the pace followed a pace no slower than 47.06 seconds for the first half-mile and 1:11.39 for the first three quarters. The last three forward-going winners who were no more than a length back at any call helped establish fractions of 48.16 and 1:12.00 or slower.
That is not exactly a profound finding for a track that seems to have played fairly the past seven years on its biggest day.
Conventional wisdom, if not the morning line, says 7-5 favorite No More Time and 8-5 Domestic Product would pay a very short exacta price if they turn Saturday’s 10-horse field into a two-horse race. Both carry E/P 5 designations in their Quirin Speed Points, according to Brisnet. That means they will be forwardly placed.
That leaves Sturdy, the 8-1 third choice who carries an S 0 Quirin, to carry the banner for closers. Oh, yes. The late rally has won the Tampa Bay Derby in the last four odd-numbered years. Wait ’til next year?
If No More Time and Domestic Product find themselves in a pace duel, who knows? Maybe that S thing will live on. At least for one day.