Kentucky Derby prep trends: Tampa Bay Derby is hard to read
It is more difficult finding a consistent winning style for the Grade 3, $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby than it is for any other points prep for Kentucky Derby 2023.
Where the history of other races have revealed clear patterns, Saturday’s 43rd running at Tampa Bay Downs might as well be a game of rock paper scissors.
First Look: Tampa Bay Derby 9 graded stakes this weekend.
As the odds-on favorite last year, Classic Causeway led the 10-horse field from gate to wire on his way to a 2 1/2-length victory. In 2021, 15-1 Helium closed from 10th to first. In 2020, King Guillermo carried 49-1 odds on a stalking trip to victory.
And on it went going back in time for the 1 1/16-mile race, which had been won by four consecutive long shots before last March.
Curated from Equibase, these were the past-performance lines of all the Tampa Bay Derby winners since 2000:
| Year | Winner | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | Str | Fin | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Classic Causeway | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | *4-5 |
| 2021 | Helium | 10 - 6 3/4 | 5 - 3 | 2 - 1 | 1 | 1 | 15-1 |
| 2020 | King Guillermo | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 49-1 |
| 2019 | Tacitus | 6 - 8 | 6 - 10 1/2 | 7 - 8 | 3 - 2 | 1 | 8-1 |
| 2018 | Quip | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 | 19-1 |
| 2017 | Tapwrit | 8 - 6 | 7 - 5 | 4 - 3 1/2 | 1 | 1 | *1-1 |
| 2016 | Destin | 3 - 2 | 2 - 1/2 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 7-2 |
| 2015 | Carpe Diem | 4 - 1 3/4 | 3 - 2 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 | *1-1 |
| 2014 | Ring Weekend | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14-1 |
| 2013 | Verrazano | 2 - 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | *2-5 |
| 2012 | Prospective | 6 - 7 1/2 | 4 - 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3-1 |
| 2011 | Watch Me Go | 5 - 3 | 4 - 2 1/2 | 3 - 1 | 2 - hd | 1 | 43-1 |
| 2010 | Odysseus | 2 - 2 | 2 - 1/2 | 3 - 1/2 | 4 - 1 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2009 | Musket Man | 4 - 2 1/2 | 5 - 1 1/2 | 8 - 3 | 3 - 3 | 1 | 5-1 |
| 2008 | Big Truck | 5 - 1 3/4 | 5 - 2 | 6 - 1 1/4 | 2 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 7-1 |
| 2007 | Street Sense | 4 - 6 1/2 | 4 - 7 | 4 - 4 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 6-5 |
| 2006 | Deputy Glitters | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 8-1 |
| 2005 | Sun King | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | *1-9 |
| 2004 | Limehouse | 2 - 1 1/2 | 4 - 1 1/2 | 5 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 | *4-5 |
| 2003 | Region of Merit | 3 - 3 | 3 - 3 1/2 | 2 - 2 | 2 - 1 | 1 | *8-5 |
| 2002 | Equality | 2 - 1 1/2 | 2 - 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4-1 |
| 2001 | Burning Roma | 5 - 3 1/2 | 4 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | *4-5 |
| 2000 | Wheelaway | 4 - 5 | 3 - 2 1/2 | 3 - 1 | 1 | 1 | *8-5 |
| *Favorite |
Of the 10 horses described by the Tampa Bay Downs racing office as probable starters Saturday, seven showed early speed in their past races, including Sam F. Davis (G3) finishers Groveland, second last month; Classic Car Wash, third; Classic Legacy, fourth; Zydeceaux, fifth; and Prairie Hawk, ninth.
With his tactical versatility, likely favorite Tapit Trice flies in the face of those speed horses. The $1.3 million Tapit colt trained by Todd Pletcher conceded six places and 4 1/4 lengths before breaking his maiden in the slop Dec. 17 at Aqueduct. In an allowance race last out Feb. 4 at Gulfstream Park, he was a close fourth before he pounced on an honest early pace to win by eight lengths and earn a Beyer Speed Figure of 92, according to Daily Racing Form.
The prism of history provides a clearer image of the Tampa Bay Derby’s influence on the Kentucky Derby. Since Super Saver parlayed his third-place finish in Florida to an 8-1 score in 2010 at Churchill Downs, only Tacitus has hit the board in Louisville, where he was promoted from fourth to third in 2019.
These were the horses who started in both the Tampa Bay Derby and Kentucky Derby since 2000, according to Churchill Downs:
| Year | Horse | Quirin | T.B.D. | Ky. D. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Classic Causeway | E 8 | 1st | 11th |
| 2021 | Helium | E/P 6 | 1st | *7th |
| Hidden Stash | P 0 | 2nd | *13th | |
| 2020 | Sole Volante | S 0 | 2nd | 11th |
| 2019 | Tacitus | P 2 | 1st | *3rd |
| Win Win Win | S 3 | 3rd | *9th | |
| 2018 | Vino Rosso | S 4 | 4th | 9th |
| Flameaway | E/P 6 | 2nd | 13th | |
| 2017 | Tapwrit | P 2 | 1st | 6th |
| State of Honor | E 7 | 2nd | 19th | |
| 2016 | Destin | E/P 4 | 1st | 6th |
| Brody’s Cause | S 0 | 7th | 7th | |
| Outwork | E 8 | 2nd | 14th | |
| 2015 | Danzig Moon | S 2 | 4th | 5th |
| Carpe Diem | E/P 5 | 1st | 10th | |
| 2014 | Vinceremos | E/P 5 | 2nd | 17th |
| 2013 | Falling Sky | E 8 | 3rd | 19th |
| 2012 | Prospective | P 1 | 1st | 18th |
| 2011 | Watch Me Go | E/P 3 | 1st | 18th |
| 2010 | Super Saver | E 6 | 3rd | 1st |
| 2009 | Musket Man | P 4 | 1st | 3rd |
| Join in the Dance | E 8 | 2nd | 7th | |
| General Quarters | E/P 4 | 5th | 10th | |
| Nowhere to Hide | P 3 | 4th | 17th | |
| 2008 | Big Truck | P 3 | 1st | 18th |
| 2007 | Street Sense | S 2 | 1st | 1st |
| Any Given Saturday | E/P 5 | 2nd | 8th | |
| 2006 | Bluegrass Cat | E/P 6 | 2nd | 2nd |
| Deputy Glitters | E/P 5 | 1st | 8th | |
| Storm Treasure | S 1 | 6th | 11th | |
| 2005 | Sun King | E/P 4 | 1st | 15th |
| 2004 | Limehouse | E/P 5 | 1st | 4th |
| 2003 | ||||
| 2002 | ||||
| 2001 | ||||
| 2000 | Impeachment | S 0 | 2nd | 3rd |
| Wheelaway | P 3 | 1st | 5th | |
| *Promoted 1 place | ||||
| E - Early (pacesetter) | ||||
| E/P - Early presser (stalker) | ||||
| P - Presser (mid-pack) | ||||
| S - Sustainer (closer) |
More glaring has been the overall record of recent Tampa Bay Derby winners. King Guillermo, Helium and Classic Causeway have gone a collective 26: 1-4-8 since. The only victory was Classic Causeway’s 26-1 upset on the turf last summer in the Belmont Derby Invitational (G1).
After Street Sense and Super Saver successfully used the Tampa Bay Derby as a way station to their Kentucky Derby triumphs, the Florida race was upgraded in 2011 to a Grade 2 stakes. Graduates since have gone only 19: 0-0-1 in the Churchill Downs classic, no doubt contributing to this year’s demotion back to Grade 3.
In Las Vegas futures for Kentucky Derby 2023, Tapit Trice was best-priced at 15-1. Only Forte at 4-1 and Arabian Knight at 9-1 carried shorter odds. This suggests if Tapit Trice were to pay off his futures backers, the Tampa Bay Derby might find its way back to a higher class.