Kentucky Derby prep trends: Lecomte has been kind to closers
When Call Me Midnight won last year’s Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes, it was unusual for more reasons than just his being a long shot.
At 28-1 he did pull off the biggest upset in the race since 2000. Trailing by as many as 12 1/2 lengths, Call Me Midnight also made up the largest deficit any Lecomte winner faced since 2010.
But in so many other ways, last year’s renewal looked familiar.
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It was the sixth time in eight years the Lecomte winner had come from at least 4 1/2 lengths behind to win the race. War of Will in 2019 and Midnight Bourbon in 2021 were the only Lecomte victors in that time to be on the lead or within 1 1/2 lengths at every call.
These were the past-performance lines for all the Lecomte winners since 1991, according to Equibase charts.
| Year | Winner | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | Str | Fin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Call Me Midnight | 8 - 12 1/2 | 8 - 10 1/2 | 7 - 8 3/4 | 4 - 3 1/2 | 1 |
| 2021 | Midnight Bourbon | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2020 | Enforceable | 11 - 9 1/2 | 11 - 7 1/4 | 8 - 3 1/4 | 1 | 1 |
| 2019* | War of Will | 3 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2018* | Instilled Regard | 3 - 4 1/2 | 4 - 2 | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
| 2017* | Guest Suite | 6 - 4 1/2 | 6 - 6 3/4 | 4 - 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2016* | Mo Tom | 8 - 9 1/2 | 8 - 10 1/2 | 6 - 7 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 |
| 2015* | International Star | 5 - 5 | 6 - 4 1/2 | 6 - 1 3/4 | 3 - 1 | 1 |
| 2014* | Vicar's in Trouble | 2 - 1 1/2 | 2 - 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2013* | Oxbow | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2012* | Mr. Bowling | 6 - 5 1/4 | 4 - 2 | 3 - 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2011** | Wilkinson | 4 - 3 | 3 - 1 | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 | 1 |
| 2010** | Ron the Greek | 9 - 13 3/4 | 10 - 16 | 9 - 15 | 8 - 7 | 1 |
| 2009*** | Friesan Fire | 3 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 2 1/2 | 2 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2008*** | Z Fortune | 5 - 4 | 5 - 2 3/4 | 5 - 4 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 |
| 2007*** | Hard Spun | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2006 | - No race - | |||||
| 2005*** | Storm Surge | 4 - 2 1/2 | 4 - 2 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2004*** | Fire Slam | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
| 2003*** | Saintly Look | 2 - hd | 2 - hd | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
| 2002*** | Easyfromthegitgo | 5 - 2 3/4 | 4 - 2 | 4 - 2 | 3 - 2 | 1 |
| 2001*** | Sam Lord's Castle | 4 - 2 1/2 | 4 - 2 1/2 | 3 - 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2000*** | Noble Ruler | 10 - 12 1/4 | 9 - 6 3/4 | 9 - 8 1/2 | 6 - 3 | 1 |
| 1999*** | Some Actor | 13 - 18 1/4 | 14 - 14 1/4 | 12 - 8 | 6 - 4 | 1 |
| 1998*** | Western City | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 1997*** | Cash Deposit | 4 - 2 1/2 | 3 - 3 1/2 | 2 - 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 1996*** | Boomerang | 3 - 4 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 1995** | Moonlight Dancer | 2 - 1/2 | 3 - 2 | 4 - 2 | 2 - 1 | 1 |
| 1994** | Fly Cry | 6 - 3 3/4 | 6 - 3 3/4 | 3 - 2 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 |
| 1993*** | Dixieland Heat | 4 - 4 1/2 | 5 - 5 | 4 - 3 | 5 - 3 3/4 | 1 |
| 1992*** | Line in the Sand | 4 - 2 1/2 | 4 - 1 1/2 | 4 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 1991 | Big Courage | 7 - 9 3/4 | 7 - 11 | 7 - 8 | 1 | 1 |
| *1 mile 70 yds | ||||||
| **1 mile 40 yds | ||||||
| ***1 mile | ||||||
| Others 1 1/16 mi |
The asterisks indicate an important variable that recently came into the race. For most of the last three decades the Lecomte was contested at a mile, exactly one lap of the main track plus as much as a 110-foot run-up. In 2010 and 2011 it was lengthened to a mile and 40 yards. Then it went to a mile and 70 yards in 2012, a year before the Lecomte was made one of the charter preps in the Kentucky Derby qualifying-points system.
With a growing number of horsemen saying an outside draw may as well have been a kiss of competitive death, the race was extended in 2020 to its current 1 1/16 miles, the distance it also had been run for 44 of its first 48 years.
One thing that has not changed, though, is the length of the homestretch on the Fair Grounds main track. At 449 yards, it is 38 yards longer than the one at Churchill Downs. The only longer stretch that hosts a points prep is the 460-yard run home at Los Alamitos.
That was a roundabout way of saying the New Orleans racecourse is tailored to closers, and the Lecomte has provided plenty of supporting evidence.
As a proving ground for the classics, Fair Grounds has had a renaissance, especially since it lengthened its preps three years ago.
| Year | Horse | Quirin | Lecomte | Derby |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Epicenter | E/P 7 | 2nd | 2nd |
| Cyberknife | E/P 4 | 6th | 18th | |
| 2021 | Mandaloun | P 7 | 3rd | *1st |
| Midnight Bourbon | E 8 | 1st | *5th | |
| 2020 | Enforceable | S 0 | 1st | 7th |
| 2019 | War of Will | E/P 5 | 1st | 7th |
| Plus Que Parfait | E/P 2 | 5th | 8th | |
| 2018 | Instilled Regard | P 3 | 1st | 4th |
| Lone Sailor | S 3 | 9th | 8th | |
| 2017 | Untrapped | P 2 | 2nd | 12th |
| 2016 | Destin | E/P 4 | 4th | 6th |
| Mo Tom | S 0 | 1st | 8th | |
| Tom's Ready | S 1 | 2nd | 12th | |
| 2015 | War Story | P 1 | 2nd | 16th |
| 2014 | Vicar's in Trouble | E/P 5 | 1st | 19th |
| 2013 | Golden Soul | S 2 | 2nd | 2nd |
| Oxbow | E 4 | 1st | 6th | |
| 2012 | ||||
| 2011 | Pants On Fire | E/P 5 | 2nd | 9th |
| 2010 | ||||
| 2009 | Friesan Fire | E/P 6 | 1st | 18th |
| 2008 | Z Fortune | P 2 | 1st | 10th |
| 2007 | Hard Spun | E 6 | 1st | 2nd |
| Teuflesberg | E 5 | 3rd | 17th | |
| 2006 | - no Lecomte - | |||
| 2005 | ||||
| 2004 | ||||
| 2003 | Lone Star Sky | P 3 | 7th | 15th |
| 2002 | War Emblem | S 0 | 5th | 1st |
| It'sallinthechase | E 6 | 3rd | 16th | |
| 2001 | Fifty Stars | S 0 | 4th | 9th |
| 2000 | ||||
| *Promoted | ||||
| E - Early (pacesetter) | ||||
| E/P - Early presser (stalker) | ||||
| P - Presser (mid-pack) | ||||
| S - Sustainer (closer) |
Mandaloun came out of his third-place finish in the 2021 Lecomte to win the Risen Star (G2) and get promoted to victory after Medina Strike eventually was disqualified in the Kentucky Derby.
Last year Epicenter graduated from his runner-up effort in the Lecomte to win the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby (G2) before finishing second in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. He also might land the 3-year-old male championship next week when the 2022 Eclipse Award winners are announced.
Even before all that, Country House came through New Orleans in 2019 on his way to a 65-1 promotion to victory in the Kentucky Derby. That same year War of Will won the Lecomte and Risen Star en route to a triumph in the Preakness.
These last four years, however, also may be considered exceptions to a bigger trend. Since the Lecomte was limited to 3-year-olds in 1962, the only two Derby winners the race produced were War Emblem in 2002 and Mandaloun. Both belied the Lecomte trend to favor closers.
Further evidence of the greater trend come from the 26 horses who ran in both the Lecomte and the Derby since 2000. Sixteen were either mid-pack or closing horses, according to their Quirin Speed Points reported by Brisnet.
Handicappers looking for closers in Saturday’s eight-horse renewal of the Lecomte are likely to gravitate to Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) winner Instant Coffee and maybe to look for value from maiden winner Denington.
Horses looking to buck the closing trend start with likely pacesetter Echo Again. Street Sense (G3) victor Two Phil’s, allowance winners Bromley and Confidence Game and maiden winners Tapit’s Conquest and Itzos could stalk the early pace.
There is one more variable to throw in Saturday’s mix. The National Weather Service forecast an 80 percent chance of showers and maybe a thunderstorm with a high of 64 degrees and an east wind of 15-25 mph blowing into the faces of horses in the homestretch.