Ky. Derby 2025 preps: Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby

The Kentucky Derby is just 28 days away, and after the final three major preps between Saturday and Tuesday, the starting gate will be as good as filled with 20 3-year-old colts aiming for the roses.

Here are the clinch scenarios for this weekend's prep runners to join the 11 colts currently securely in the gate. The Grade 2 Wood Memorial and the devalued Santa Anita Derby (G1) are on tap Saturday, and the rescheduled Blue Grass stakes at Keeneland is coming up Tuesday.

The 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial at Aqueduct is Saturday's first prep on the schedule with a field of 10 set to compete for 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points and $750,000 purse. Rick Dutrow's Captain Cook, winner of the Withers stakes, is the morning-line favorite at 7-2. He is returning to the Withers distance of 1 1/8 miles in search of a top-two finish to get him into the Derby gate.

Bob Baffert ships in highly regarded maiden winner Rodriguez, who stretches to this distance for the first time but makes his third appearance on the Derby trail. Grande out of the Todd Pletcher barn and Passion Rules from Brad Cox's stable are impressive allowance winners stepping into stakes company for the first time.

Dutrow hopes it rains as forecast at Aqueduct on Saturday, the better for Captain Cook to race on the same slop where he broke his maiden by 9 1/4 lengths. He talks about the race on the Ron Flatter Racing Pod, which also includes FanDuel TV's Joaquin Jaime and Super Screener creator Mike Shutty.

The 100th running of the Wood Memorial has a scheduled post time of 6:17 p.m. EDT. TV coverage will be on "America's Day at the Races" via FS2 and the New York Racing Association YouTube page. FanDuel TV will also have live coverage.

Chad Brown's Hill Road, one of the horses sure to get a lot of attention among bettors, will be scratched due to a fever. Saffie Joseph Jr. is going to scratch Bear Claw Necklace from the Wood. 

"I thought Aqueduct’s main track with the long stretch would help him, because he is a finisher,” trainer Shug McGaughey said of his Wood Memorial charge Statesman. 

Get to know all 10 of the Wood contenders with Matt Shifman's odds and analysis.

Here are the top lifetime speed figures for the Wood Memorial entrants:

* Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures are provided courtesy of Daily Racing Form.

Pace makes the race

TimeformUS is projecting a fast, pressured pace for the Wood Memorial with as many as three horses fighting for the early position. Rodriguez, coming from the rail and also having the speed-favoring Santa Anita experience will likely try to overwhelm the local speed in Sand Devil with Grande making for a forward play, too. With blinkers on, My Mitole also should have some early foot.

Pressing these pacesetters should be favorite Captain Cook, with Passion Rules coasting in behind him. Settling mid-pack will be McAfee and Tiger Twenty Four. At the back of the field you will find Statesman and Omaha Omaha.

It remains to be seen if Rodriguez can win from off the pace, but he has the tactical speed to stay close up should Mike Smith decide to forgo a pressured lead. Captain Cook is proven at the distance and has a favorable running style. However, if things get too quick up front, don't be surprised to see Passion Rules, Statesman and Omaha Omaha flying late down the stretch.

HRN picks

Ed DeRosa sees a couple ways to play this big field depending on where the odds go, especially for Captain Cook, DeRosa's most likely winner. 

"There is every reason to think he will fire his best shot here given the freshening off a career best effort, but the question mark is distance," DeRosa said. "Progeny of Practical Joke might be at their best going middle distances, and there is a lot of pace dynamics present in this race where a breather for any forwardly placed horse seems unlikely. My absolute floor on whether Captain Cook is a good bet is 5-2." 

Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis agree on two of the Wood Memorial contenders hitting the board, but they're miles apart on how these colts will finish. 

For this week's HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman give their picks for all three Kentucky Derby preps, but they save their best Wood Memorial plays for last.

With Hill Road scratched by trainer Chad Brown, Super Screener's Mike Shutty said a big price is worth a look. A win is a big ask, but he's so dangerous, you can't leave this one off your tickets.

"Tiger Twenty Four out of the Bill Mott barn just broke his maiden, but he brings to this race a key triple threat. Ascending form that will continue here, second start off the layoff and a superior work pattern," Shutty said. "The expectation is for another move forward that would be good enough to score at the bottom of your exotic wagers at a big price."

Get Mike's analysis and wagering strategies for all of the major Kentucky Derby preps free when you get the Super Screener Triple Crown package. It's just $97 and includes all of the updates through Belmont Stakes day.

The Kentucky Derby trail hits California one last time Saturday with the 1 1/8 mile Santa Anita Derby. A field of five, including reigning Eclipse champion Citizen Bull, has signed on to run for the 75-37.5-18.75-11.25-7.5 qualifying points. The race has 25% reduced points values because only five horses were entered. If there is a scratch, the points would be reduced further to 50% of their original values. The Santa Anita Derby is scheduled for 7:46 p.m. EDT.

TV coverage of the Santa Anita Derby will be on CNBC and streaming on Peacock beginning at 7 p.m. EDT. FanDuel TV will also have live coverage of Santa Anita as part of its daily broadcast.

Trainer Bob Baffert has Citizen Bull ready for the test ahead and also sends highly regarded Barnes into the fray. Citizen Bull secured his spot in the Kentucky Derby with his victories in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Robert B. Lewis (G3). Barnes, who broke his maiden on debut at Churchill Downs in November, returned a winner in the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2), which was not a Kentucky Derby points race. In the San Felipe (G2), Barnes ran a strong second to Journalism to earn 17.5 points. He must run first or second to be assured of making the Kentucky Derby. 

Journalism comes into the Santa Anita Derby off back-to-back stakes wins in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) and San Felipe. A win or second-place finish ihere from the Mike McCarthy trainee mathematically clinches his place in the Kentucky Derby, although historically he already may have the poinst to get there.

Here are the speed figures for the Santa Anita Derby contenders.

* Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures are provided courtesy of Daily Racing Form.

Pace makes the race

The Santa Anita Derby has some of the fastest speed figures in the country, but TimeformUS projects an average pace in the race. It shows the most likely leader being Barnes, although his stablemate Citizen Bull will also be out early. These two won't press each other into a duel, rather one will sit just behind the other until it's time for the real running to begin.

Baeza will also be up front early, though just how fast he wants to go against the Bafferts is a question. Journalism has tactical speed to stay close if needed before unleashing his powerful late move. Still, he will be at the back of the field early, just not too far back.

HRN picks

The Kentucky Derby favorite will come out of the Santa Anita Derby, according to Ed DeRosa. 

"There is a potential wagering opportunity in the Santa Anita Derby, as there is some chance the Baffert pair attracts enough money to make Journalism worth a play," he said. "The Horse Racing Nation morning line vs. my fair odds suggests I might get my price. From a multi-race standpoint, I'd be fine singling Journalism assuming some contrary opinions elsewhere in the sequence."