Ky. Derby prep guide: Virginia Derby field, analysis, free PPs
For the first time the Kentucky Derby trail stops at Colonial Downs for the 1 1/8-mile Virginia Derby, which will be run Saturday on dirt. The $500,000 race offers 50-25-15-10-5 points to the top five finishers, which should put the winner into the Churchill Downs starting gate May 3.
With eight points preps left to go, Kentucky Derby math says two horses have clinched a spot in the race and history favors four others. Here are the top contenders' points totals and clinch scenarios headed into Saturday's prep.
Trainer Bob Baffert sends Getaway Car, last seen winning the Sunland Derby by a head. The Curlin colt is one of the most experienced in the field with seven lifetime starts, three of those in Derby points preps. He has earned 36 points for his efforts, and a top-three finish here would seal the deal.
John Hancock, winner of the Sam F. Davis, will be scratched from the Virginia Derby, and trainer Brad Cox will point him instead for the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby.
Of the remaining entrants, Cox's Rapture will get a lot of attention at the windows in place of his stablemate. A son of Uncle Mo, Rapture is making his third career start and first in a stakes race. His impressive maiden victory by 6 1/2 lengths signals the talent is there, and this will be a test of his class.
Omaha Omaha comes into the Virginia Derby off back-to-back board-hitting efforts at Aqueduct in the Jerome and Withers. The son of Audible out of the Michael Gorham barn has shown he needs a route to succeed, taking time to find his best stride and accelerating in the stretch. The one-turn, 1 1/8-mile configuration and possible swift pace could set things up for him to upset at big odds.
The Virginia Derby will be shown live on FanDuel TV on Saturday at 5:10 p.m. EDT.
Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 5 opened Friday with San Felipe winner Journalism listed at 3-1, the favorite among 40 betting interests. Getaway Car and Rapture, also in the KDFW, are in the Virginia Derby. The year's only Kentucky Oaks Future Wager offers 39 individual horses and an option for all other 3-year-old fillies. Undefeated Good Cheer is the 3-1 morning-line favorite in the pool.
Kentucky Derby and Oaks Future Wager pools close Sunday.
Virginia Derby best speed figures
| No. | Horse | Morn. line | Beyer* | TimeformUS | Brisnet | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calling Card | 15-1 | 87 | 110 | 93 | 114 |
| scr | John Hancock | |||||
| 3 | American Promise | 12-1 | 95 | 113 | 92 | 110 |
| 4 | Omaha Omaha | 10-1 | 80 | 102 | 90 | 109 |
| 5 | Studlydoright | 15-1 | 85 | 106 | 89 | 110 |
| 6 | Getaway Car | 9-5 | 92 | 112 | 101 | 129 |
| 7 | Rapture | 5-1 | 82 | 103 | 88 | 111 |
| 8 | Authentic Gallop | 10-1 | 84 | 102 | 85 | 105 |
| 9 | Render Judgment | 12-1 | 79 | 99 | 87 | 110 |
| 10 | Georgia Magic | 30-1 | 58 | 88 | 75 | 97 |
| *Courtesy of Daily Racing Form | ||||||
Pace Projector
With John Hancock out, Getaway Car most likely will find himself on the lead, but he won't be alone. American Promise projects to have early speed as well, and he is coming in off two tough races at Fair Grounds. He finds much softer competiton here. Authentic Gallop could try to make the lead, but he is a few steps slower than American Promise and Getaway Car.
Rapture, Studlydoright and Georgia Magic should tuck in right behind the pacesetters. Render Judgment gets blinkers for this start, which should put him closer to the speed than in his previous start in the Risen Star (G2). Calling Card and Omaha Omaha will fall in behind, hoping for a pressured pace to close.
Pace Projector appears courtesy of TimeformUS.
HRN picks
Meet the Virginia Derby contenders with Matt Shifman as he goes horse-by-horse through the field, with odds and analysis.
With the scratch of John Hancock, the Virginia Derby appears to be Getaway Car's to lose. But Ed DeRosa said there are some vulnerabilities to consider before you play.
"I give the son of Curlin a 50% chance of winning this race, so odds-on is unplayable", he said. "The Sunland Derby came back fast, with his Ragozin Figure being the best of this group by far. There is no guarantee to running back to that race, though, as it was a lifetime best by far. And maybe the 27-day turnaround is too short given that Baffert initially planned to start Gaming here."
See what else Ed had to say about Getaway Car as well as some more bettable options in his fair-odds column.
Reigning Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Kenny McPeek said Render Judgment's last start in the Risen Star is "a complete throw out." Find out why he thinks the son of Blame is rounding into his best form, just in time for the distances to stretch out.
HorseCenter's Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman wax poetic about Thorpedo Anna this week and discuss their top plays for the Virginia Derby and Oaks.
Horse Racing Nation's Super Screener has in-depth analysis of the Virginia Derby, where creator Mike Shutty identified a horse who could blow up the tote if the conditions are right.
"If the top pace setters do soften each other up, and any other horse running near them, then Omaha Omaha has the best shot get up for a piece of this at a big price," Shutty said. "He has moved forward in every one of his five starts following his debut, including his third-place finish in the Withers going Saturday’s nine-furlong distance. He is clearly a pace-dependent type, and he may have as many as eight lengths to make up on the pace leaders. ... Nonetheless, with his late foot, distance experience and a beneficial pace setup, no other horse will be moving faster down the stretch."
Shutty offered tips for the Virginia Derby, Virginia Oaks and the Whitmore (G3) at Oaklawn on the Ron Flatter Racing Pod, which also included interviews with Churchill Downs Inc. vice president of racing Gary Palmisano Jr. and National Thoroughbred Racing Association CEO Tom Rooney.
For more insight into the Virginia Derby, as well as wagering strategies for the other stakes on the card, get the Super Screener. It's just $97 for weekly analysis, and it includes the entire Triple Crown.