Ky. Derby prep guide: Tampa Bay Derby analysis, picks, PPs

The Kentucky Derby 2025 trail stops one last time at Tampa Bay Downs Saturday for the Grade 3, 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby. A short yet contentious field of seven 3-year-olds has signed on to run for the 50-25-15-10-5 qualifying points offered to the top five finishers.

Chancer McPatrick, the morning-line favorite, was a two-time Grade 1 winner at 2 who makes his season debut for trainer Chad Brown. A confirmed closer, he adds blinkers for the first time. They could help put him into contention earlier in the race. Jockey Flavien Prat has the ride.

Patch Adams out of the Brad Cox barn is the second choice on the morning line. The son of Into Mischief broke his maiden impressively last November at Churchill but finished fourth in the Southwest (G3) in his first trip on the Derby trail. Florent Geroux is in the irons once again for this colt's make-or-break Derby prep.

Also on tap Saturday, horse of the year Thorpedo Anna takes on five rivals in her comeback in the 1 1/16-mile Azeri Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn. Here's a preview and a look at how Thorpedo Anna compares with Rachel Alexandra, the last 3-year-old filly awarded the horse-of-the-year honor.

Post time for the Tampa Bay Derby is 5:43 p.m. EST, and the Azeri is set for 6:25 p.m. TV coverage of both will be part of "America's Day at the Races" beginning at 4:30 p.m. on FS2 and as part of the all-day racing coverage on FanDuel TV.

In-depth analysis and wagering strategy for the Tampa Bay Derby and the undercard may be found in the Super Screener. Get your copy now.

Tampa Bay Derby contenders speed figures

Here are the career-best speed figures for the Tampa Bay Downs entrants shown with their morning-line odds. Beyer Speed Figures are courtesy of Daily Racing Form. Also shown are ratings from TimeformUS, Brisnet and Horse Racing Nation.

Pace Projector

TimeformUS projects a fast pace in the Tampa Bay Derby, with Owen Almighty, Brodeur and Patch Adams all challenging for the lead. Filoso should take up the pressing position right behind these three. Blinkers-on Chancer McPatrick projects to be mid-pack as does Naughty Rascal, who is also adding blinkers. Hill Road will bring up the rear, though with blinkers also going on him, he might be closer to his stablemate Chancer McPatrick than this suggests.

HRN picks

Meet the Tampa Bay Derby contenders with Matt Shifman as he goes horse-by-horse through the field, with odds and analysis.

The Tampa Bay Derby is shaping up to be a great betting race, according to Ed DeRosa. In his fair odds column this week, Ed finds vulnerabilities in the morning-line favorites and so goes with a horse who has experience at the track and distance. Owen Almighty.

"There is some thought that he is a one-turn and-or middle-distance type," he said. "But put me squarely in the camp that he has earned at least another chance at this 1 1/16-mile configuration."

Owen Almighty is the hard-luck horse on the Derby trail. See why his fortunes may change in the Tampa Bay Derby.

HorseCenter's Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman take on the Tampa Bay Derby and offer plays for it and the Azeri.

Head to Head handicappers Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis take opposing positions on the Tampa Bay Derby's pace and winning plays.

Mark Midland handicaps four stakes on the Tampa Bay Derby card including the feature. Hear him on the Ron Flatter Racing Pod, which also includes racing innovators Leon Nichols and Calvin Davis and California administrator Oscar Gonzales discussing the proposed World Riding Championships.

HRN's Super Screener has in-depth analysis of the Tampa Bay Derby.

"With a balanced energy-distribution profile, two sharp efforts over this surface and a bullet work submitted in preparation for this start, this colt is coming into this race behind a lot of positive signals, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. retains the mount," Super Screener creator Mike Shutty said. "He won’t want much more ground than this, so connections are in to win now. Saves ground throughout. Presses then pounces."

For more insight into the Tampa Bay Derby as well as wagering strategies for the other stakes on the card, get the Super Screener. It's just $97 for weekly analysis and it includes the entire Triple Crown.