Kentucky Derby prep guide: Sam F. Davis odds, PPs, more
Qualifying points for Kentucky Derby 2025 will be up for grabs in Saturday's $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.
The local prep for the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) will be run on dirt at 1 1/16 miles, with 10 3-year-olds set to do battle. With Owen Almighty the 2-1 morning-line favorite, the top five finishers will get 20-10-6-4-2 Kentucky Derby points.
Post time for the Sam F. Davis, the 11th of 12 races, is 5:14 p.m. EST. Both FS1 and FanDuel TV will show it live.
Check out Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page for downloadable PPs for the Sam F. Davis Stakes and more, courtesy of our partners at Brisnet.
We also have Super Screener picks and analysis for the Sam F. Davis as well as recent top speed figures for each contender.
Best speed figures
| Horse | Morn. line | Beyer* | Brisnet | TimeformUS | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Camp Hale | 20-1 | 85 | 93 | 111 | 120 |
| 2. Treaty of Rome | 6-1 | 79 | 91 | 109 | 108 |
| 3. John Hancock | 3-1 | 81 | 88 | 103 | 113 |
| 4. Dr Ruben M | 12-1 | 74 | 92 | 103 | 108 |
| 5. Gateskeeper | 30-1 | 72 | 82 | 97 | 104 |
| 6. Owen Almighty | 2-1 | 87 | 90 | 118 | 121 |
| 7. Poster | 4-1 | 84 | 92 | 100 | 104 |
| 8. Naughty Rascal | 6-1 | 85 | 96 | 114 | 119 |
| 9. Smoken Boy | 20-1 | ||||
| 10. Very Bold | 20-1 | 77 | 82 | 102 | 111 |
| *Daily Racing Form |
Looking at the pace
A fast pace is expected for the Sam F. Davis with long shot Camp Hale ahead of John Hancock, Dr Ruben M and Owen Almighty early on.
Pace projector appears courtesy of TimeformUS.
HRN picks
This week's Super Screener likes a 15-1 long shot in the Pelican Stakes at Tampa Bay.
"The pace is estimated to fall seven points short of par, so this will be a soft pace that favors those who are forwardly placed," Mike Shutty said. "The horse with the best pace advantage is the Super Screener's top win pick, No. 3 Silver Slugger."
Check out our $97 deal and get Super Screener each week plus Power Picks and Horses to Single reports every day until Kentucky Derby 2025.
Ed DeRosa's Sam F. Davis fair odds see Very Bold as a live long shot on the stretch in distance.
DeRosa also has Suncoast fair odds, where he's leaning against likely favorites Her Laugh and La Cara and leaning on Junta and Cloe in the points prep for the Kentucky Oaks (G1).
Ashley Tamulonis and Laurie Ross went head to head handicapping the Sam F. Davis. Each believes Poster is the horse to beat. However, they disagreed on how to fill out the exotics.
For more Sam F. Davis analysis, read Matt Shifman's picks.
J. Keeler Johnson's latest Horses to Watch column offers two runners to consider at Tampa Bay Downs on their loaded 12-race card.
Seven of the sharpest public handicappers from across the country joined the Ron Flatter Racing Pod to do a Kentucky Derby 2025 mock draft.