Kentucky Derby prep guide: Rebel Stakes free PPs and picks
A field of 13 3-year-old colts signed on for the 1 1/16-mile challenge and the chance at 50 points towards a virtually guaranteed spot in the Kentucky Derby 2025 starting gate. California shipper Bullard, trained by Mike McCarthy for West Point Thoroughbreds, developed a fever and will not race.
TV coverage of the Rebel may be found on FanDuel TV and FS2. Post time is 6:23 p.m. EST.
Check out Horse Racing Nation's free past performances page for downloadable PPs for the Rebel and five more stakes at Oaklawn courtesy of Brisnet.
Don't forget Super Screener analysis and wagering strategies for Rebel day at Oaklawn. He has a 25-1 top play in the Razorback and goes in-depth on the Rebel contenders.
Best speed figures
| Post | Horse | Morn. line | Beyer* | Brisnet | TimeformUS | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coal Battle | 10-1 | 84 | 92 | 106 | 110 |
| 2 | Admiral Dennis | 12-1 | 79 | 91 | 101 | 116 |
| 3 | Sandman | 4-1 | 92 | 91 | 114 | 119 |
| 4 | Hypnus | 10-1 | 85 | 92 | 107 | 115 |
| 5 | Madaket Road | 9-2 | 87 | 94 | 109 | 112 |
| 6 | Publisher | 20-1 | 92 | 91 | 110 | 108 |
| 7 | Dreaminblue | 15-1 | 94 | 96 | 109 | 128 |
| 8 | Innovator | 15-1 | 87 | 89 | 107 | 128 |
| 9 | Smoken Wicked | 8-1 | 92 | 98 | 112 | 140 |
| scr | Bullard | |||||
| 11 | Speed King | 6-1 | 93 | 92 | 120 | 113 |
| 12 | Brereton's Baytown | 50-1 | 68 | 88 | 99 | 94 |
| 13 | Tiztastic | 8-1 | 89 | 90 | 110 | 110 |
| 14 | Hot Gunner | 50-1 | 68 | 80 | 85 | 95 |
| *Daily Racing Form |
Pace projection
TimeformUS predicts a swift pace set by Southwest winner no. 11 Speed King. No. 8 Innovator and no. 9 Smoken Wicked also look to be fast early, and either one could turn up the heat on Speed King, who got an uncontested lead in the Southwest. No. 4 maiden winner Hypnus and no. 14 Hot Gunner are the noted deep closers in the field.
HRN picks
Ed DeRosa predicts another weekend of big balloon payouts with the 13-horse field in the Rebel, which appears to have an evenly matched group.
"So who are the potential long shots to like?" DeRosa said. "Dreaminblue is 15-1 morning line and is better than that to my eye. His lone two-turn attempt was in a short-stretch race at Oaklawn and really had no kick after chasing a fast pace four wide from post 10. He then could not corral Innovator on the cutback before drawing out last out. I don't know whether he wants to go much farther than these 8 1/2 furlongs, but he will get a nice setup here."
Get his analysis of the morning-line favorites, the West Coast shippers and more in his fair-odds story.
Head to Head and more
Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis land on a similar set of win contenders and agree one one 20-1 long shot in the Rebel. See their complete analysis.
Coal Battle's trainer Lonnie Briley talks about his career, his colt and his affinity for knowing horses inside out. Literally. He is on the Ron Flatter Racing Pod.