Kentucky Derby prep guide x 3: Analysis, picks, free PPs

Kentucky Derby 2025 contenders will separate themselves from the pretenders in Saturday's trifecta of preps, including the 1 1/16-mile, Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park.

The Fountain of Youth includes six horses seeking the 50 winner's points and a virtually guaranteed spot in the starting gate for the Derby on May 3.

Holy Bull (G3) winner Burnham Square looks to solidify his spot at the top of the crop at Gulfstream. Sovereignty, last seen winning the Street Sense at Churchill Downs in the fall, aims to make a winning return. Todd Pletcher-trained River Thames steps up to stakes company after an impressive, undefeated start to his career.

Post time for the Fountain of Youth is Saturday at 5:44 p.m. EST.

At Aqueduct, a field of 10 lines for the Gotham Stakes (G3) going a one-turn mile for the winner's share of 50 Derby points. All but one of these 3-year-olds are making their first appearance on the Derby trail. Calling Card is the exception, having finished in eight in the Lecomte (G3). Sand Devil is the buzz horse, having turned in three wins against New York-bred company.

The Gotham starts at 4:18 p.m. EST.

Santa Anita presents the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe (G2). With Saturday's scratch of Berlin Wall, only five horses, three trained by Bob Baffert, race for reduced Derby points. Baffert's undefeated San Vicente (G2) winner Barnes headlines the trio while Robert B. Lewis (G3) runner-up Rodriguez looking to earn some more Derby cred. Mike McCarthy-trained Journalism, who was the Derby futures favorite New Year's Day, makes his 2025 return and aims to upset the speedy Bafferts.

The San Felipe, which will be worth 37 1/2 Derby points to the winner, is scheduled to go at 6:43 p.m. EST.

The Santa Anita Handicap (G1) at 7:47 p.m. EST rounds out the day's graded-stakes action with 10 older males going 1 1/4 miles on the dirt. Todd Pletcher-trained Locked and Brad Cox's Hit Show shipped to take on a group of locals. It's an opportunity for someone to challenge Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) winner White Abarrio at the top of the handicap division.

TV coverage of the Fountain of Youth and San Felipe will be on CNBC and Peacock from 5 to 7 p.m. EST. The Gotham will be shown as part of "America's Day at the Races" on FS2 beginning at 2 p.m. EST. All the preps races will be shown on FanDuelTV.

Fountain of Youth best speed figures

Fountain of Youth pace

TimeformUS predicts a fast pace in the Fountain of Youth, with Neoquos and River Thames vying for the lead. Pressing just behind should be Keep It Easy. The rest of the field will be in close behind these pace setters, with Sovereignty the lone late runner bringing up the rear.

HRN picks

Ed DeRosa pegs Burnham Square as the most likely winner off his performance in the Holy Bull.

"The Holy Bull came back as one of the fastest race of the year according to Ragozin Sheets," he said. "His trainer Ian Wilkes knows a thing or two about winning the Kentucky Derby, having been a part of Hall of Fame trainer Carl Nafzger's team for Unbridled in 1990 and Street Sense in 2007."

Get Ed's full analysis of the Fountain of Youth, including a top long shot, in his fair-odds column.

More perspective

Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis have differing views of the race, centering on the strength of the pace. One panelist is sure River Thames can get an easy lead, while the other is betting against that happening. See their complete analysis in this week's Head to Head Handicapping.

HorseCenter's Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman talk Fountain of Youth as well as the Gulfstream Park undercard stakes, where last year's Belmont Stakes runner-up Mindframe makes an anticipated return. Shifman particularly likes River Thames, and offers reasons to like the speedy colt here.

On this week's Ron Flatter Racing Pod, trainer Ian Wilkes discusses Burnham Square and offers long-range plans for the gelding's Kentucky Derby path. Ron also gets the scoop from California with Eddie the Hat Wilson, who's eye is on Bob Baffert's Barnes for the San Felipe. There's much more for listeners, including handicapping with Ed DeRosa.

The progress Burnham Square has made in his path to the heart of the Derby trail also was detailed by Tom Pedulla in the story he filed from South Florida.

Super Screener

Super Screener's Mike Shutty zeroed-in on a contender who should relish the Fountain of Youth distance.

"This race sets up particularly well for the Super Screener top win, top board hitter, top value pick Sovereignty out of the Bill Mott barn," he said. "Last year he moved forward in each of his starts while facing progressively tougher competition and taking on more ground. His final start of the year in the Street Sense (G3) was his most impressive in that he won doing what he wants to do. Go longer over two-turn routes. Most of the horses in this race have yet to run two turns so he holds an advantage over those rivals."

For more insight into the Fountain of Youth, as well as wagering strategies for the Gulfstream Park card, get the Super Screener. It's just $97 for weekly analysis and it includes the Kentucky Derby in May.

More Derby prep tips

Here are handicapping information and tips for the other two Kentucky Derby preps on tap for Saturday, the Gotham at Aqueduct and the San Felipe at Santa Anita.

Gotham speed figures and pace projector

TimeformUS predicts a fast pace in the Gotham, set by Sacrosanct and Sand Devil. With blinkers on Calling Card, it could mean that connections want some early early foot for that rival, too. 

See Ed DeRosa's fair odds for the Gotham for a potential single in this race.

San Felipe speed figures and pace projector

TimeformUS is projecting an average pace for the San Felipe, with any of the three Baffert trainees taking the initiative. Heavy favorite Barnes could have it all his own way on the front end, but be on the lookout for Rodriguez to step up, too. Journalism will be close to the pack.