Ky. Derby prep guide: Blue Grass handicapping insights

The Kentucky Derby trail makes its final stops at Keeneland this week. Tuesday is the Grade 1, 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass Stakes, the most important local prep offering 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points to the top five finishers. Saturday is the Lexington Stakes, a 1 1/6-mile, Grade 3 event that offers last-chance qualifying points on the 20-10-6-4-2 scale. We'll have more on that prep as it gets closer.

A compact yet contentious field of seven was drawn for the Blue Grass, with the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner Owen Almighty and runner-up Chancer McPatrick the headliners. Todd Pletcher's River Thames is the 5-2 morning-line favorite after a strong second in the Fountain of Youth (G2). Holy Bull (G3) winner Burnham Square, Virginia Derby runner-up Render Judgment and Breeders' Futurity (G1) winner East Avenue add to the stakes quality of the field. Finally, Brad Cox's Admiral Dennis, still in search of a board-hitting stakes performance, rounds out the field.

Owen Almighty is the only Blue Grass contender securely in the Kentucky Derby field. See what it will take for the other six colts to make the gate in these updated clinch scenarios. 

Get to know the Blue Grass contenders with Matt Shifman's introduction and analysis.

Here are the top lifetime speed figures for the Blue Grass Stakes entrants.

*Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures are provided courtesy of Daily Racing Form.

Pace makes the race

TimeformUS projects a swift, pressured pace in the Blue Grass, with three colts contesting the lead. Owen Almighty, a proven frontrunner, will try to set the pace, but River Thames on his inside and East Avenue on his outside also will be on the gas early. River Thames has shown he can press just off the leader, but East Avenue has had a tough time when he has company on the front end.

Sliding in just behind these leaders should be Burnham Square to sit a pocket trip. Render Judgment will race mid-pack and Chancer McPatrick and Admiral Dennis will wait at the back of a strung-out field to make their late, closing moves.

Burnham Square is the only Blue Grass contender to own three 100+ speed figures, and he also has a tactical running style. Keep this in mind when making your wagers.

HRN picks

Ed DeRosa finds vulnerabilities in all of the Blue Grass contenders, but he weighs those with their predicted odds to narrow his plays down to two horses. 

"Chancer McPatrick was second to Owen Almighty in the Tampa Bay Derby, but Owen Almighty had the pace all his way that day in Oldsmar, Fla.," he said. "That is unlikely Tuesday in Lexington with the presences of River Thames and East Avenue. Both long shots have some zip as well. That is to say, if ever a race is going to set up for Chancer McPatrick, then this is it."

Head-to-Head Handicappers Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis find consensus on Owen Almighty but differ on how they're playing him. 

Super Screener's Mike Shutty talks Blue Grass on this week's Ron Flatter Pod.

Get Shutty's wagering strategy for the Blue Grass, as well as the other stakes at Keeneland for free when you reserve your Kentucky Derby Super Screener.