Ky. Derby prep: Silent Tactic will close in Arkansas Derby

If only for the bob of a nose and five pounds, Silent Tactic would be trying this weekend for a third consecutive win in a Kentucky Derby 2026 points prep.

Instead, John Oxley’s $500,000 Tacitus colt tries to go one better than his narrow loss in the Rebel (G2) when he lines up Saturday for the Grade 1, $1.5 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn.

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“I thought it was a big, big effort,” trainer Mark Casse said, looking back on the second-place finish in the Rebel. “He gave five pounds to the winner. That’s something else to be talked about at a different date. I think when we’re running for (Derby qualifying) points, we probably should be running at equal weights.”

Be that as it may, Silent Tactic has a total of 50 points from his win in the Southwest (G3) and seconds in the Smarty Jones and Rebel. They probably are enough to get him to the Kentucky Derby. A top-four finish Saturday would make it a slam dunk with the math.

Silent Tactic will carry 124 pounds this weekend, the same as morning-line favorite Renegade and Bob Baffert’s California shipper Litmus Test. The other five starter have 121 pounds apiece.

The numbers also show the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby is 110 yards longer than Silent Tactic went in his each of his last two races. That should fit his deep-closing style. He made up 10 places and 12 1/2 lengths of ground to win the Southwest on Feb. 8. Then he closed four lengths going four wide March 1, putting his nose in front in mid-stretch before Class President fought back to win the photo finish in the Rebel.

“He should like the extra ground,” Casse said in a Tuesday phone interview from Florida. “I was just looking at his Thoro-Graph numbers, and I don’t think you could ask for a better series. I think he went from like 15 to 12 to 8 to 6 and now a 2.”

Silent Tactic also went from an 88 Beyer Speed Figure in the Southwest to a 91 in the Rebel, according to Daily Racing Form.

Before he was moved to Arkansas for the winter, Silent Tactic raced as a 2-year-old at Woodbine. He made a winning debut going 1 1/16 miles around two turns of the Tapeta track before finishing second in the Grey Stakes (G3) over the same course and distance.

Out of Gun Runner mare Magical Sign, Silent Tactic gave Casse confidence that the switch to Oaklawn’s dirt would not be a problem.

“I was searching. I’ve always said training horses is like putting a puzzle together. You need to try the pieces,” said Casse, who is in the U.S. and Canada halls of fame. “Going into the Smarty Jones, I only got to train him on the dirt for a very short period of time, so I kind of went in there guessing.

“I thought his Smarty Jones was very good. The track played pretty speed-favoring that day, and he closed and closed wide. He was one of the few horses that actually closed, so I thought it was a good race. We thought he trained better going into the (Southwest), and he ran better in the (Rebel). To throw two big races back to back was big.”

Now it is a matter of closing on the speed in the Arkansas Derby. Blackout Time, who finished third in the Rebel for trainer Kenny McPeek, is a candidate to be out front early. So are long shots Redland Rebels and Bricklin as well as Litmus Test, who goes with blinkers off from the widest draw in the eight-horse field.

“You know Bob. He doesn’t like to get far away, so Bob is going to be up close,” Casse said. “Hopefully there is some pace, because I’d like to see our horse set back a little farther. I thought maybe he was a touch close in the Rebel.”

Casse said it would be up to jockey Cristian Torres to read and react to the running of the race as he rides Silent Tactic from post 2.

“I’ll leave that up to Cristian,” he said. “Anytime I interfere and give instructions, I usually mess it up.”

Torres and Silent Tactic will not be alone waiting for the race to develop in front of them. Renegade rallied from eighth place to win the 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 7. The $975,000 Into Mischief colt will be ridden again by Irad Ortiz Jr. for trainer Todd Pletcher and owners Robert and Lawana Low and Mike Repole.

“It doesn’t look like anybody is unbeatable,” Casse said.

The Arkansas Derby awards 100-50-25-15-10 Kentucky Derby points to the top five horses, making it a win-and-you’re-in qualifier. The second-place finisher also should make it. Litmus Test would clinch an invitation with at least a third-place effort.

The National Weather Service predicted a sunny Saturday with a high near 65 degrees at Oaklawn, where the Arkansas Derby is scheduled to start at 7:48 p.m. EDT as the 13th of 14 races.