Kentucky Derby prep: Blue Grass contenders’ speed figures

You know Kentucky Derby 2025 is right around the corner when Keeneland hosts the 1 1/8-mile, Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes, and this year it happens Tuesday. This local Derby prep offers 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points for the top five finishers.

The Blue Grass has produced 19 Kentucky Derby winners. Triple Crown winner Whirlaway finished second before his stellar season for Calumet Farm in 1941. Northern Dancer, Riva Ridge and Spectacular Bid all passed through the Keeneland oval before wearing the roses at Churchill Downs.

Click here for Keeneland entries and results.

More recently, the Blue Grass drew Street Sense to a second-place finish on the synthetic surface before his last-to-first Kentucky Derby triumph in 2007. Sierra Leone won last year's Blue Grass as a stepping stone to a runner-up Derby finish and eventually the Breeders' Cup Classic.

This year the Blue Grass Stakes has drawn a field of seven 3-year-olds searching for their own Kentucky Derby springboard. Owen Almighty comes in as the only last-out stakes winner, having the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) on his résumé.

The most accomplished contender here is Chancer McPatrick, a two-time Grade 1 winner as a juvenile who is making his second start as a 3-year-old after beginning his season with a runner-up finish to Owen Almighty.

Burnham Square is in after a win in the Holy Bull (G3) and a fourth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth (G2). River Thames, the morning-line favorite at 5-2, was second in the Fountain of Youth in his third career start. East Avenue is a Grade 1 winner at Keeneland, having notched the Breeders' Futurity here last fall. He, Render Judgment and Admiral Dennis are searching for a stakes win this year after disappointing performances in earlier preps.

Compared with the other Derby preps this weekend, the Blue Grass is one of the faster ones based on the contenders' speed figures. Chancer McPatrick owns the fastest Horse Racing Nation speed figure at 123. Owen Almighty holds the next-fastest at 121. Burnham Square has the fastest Brisnet Speed Rating with a 101. River Thames and Chancer McPatrick are one point behind him with a 99 Brisnet rating. On the TimeformUS scale, Owen Almighty earned the highest figure at 118, and River Thames and Burnham Square are tied with a 117 for the next-fastest fig. On the Beyer scale, River Thames and East Avenue share the fastest speed figure with a 95. Owen Almighty and Chancer McPatrick share the next-fastest Beyer fig with a 92.

No Blue Grass contender holds 100-plus speed figures across all of the scales, but Burnham Square has three 100-plus speed figures. Keep this in mind when determining your wagering strategies.

*Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures are provided courtesy of Daily Racing Form.