DeRosa: Ky. Derby post draw does not affect many chances
When it comes to sussing the winners and losers of the post draw for Kentucky Derby 2022, there is the conventional wisdom, and there is reality, and my wagers will lean more on the latter.
We’ll start with where all counting does, No. 1. Post 1. Mo Donegal. All things being equal, I can acquiesce that post 1 isn’t most ideal or even ideal, but is it that bad for this stone-cold closer? I say no.
Kentucky Derby 2022 draw: See field, odds, reaction.
Unfortunately, morning-line oddsmaker Mike Battaglia thinks the bettors will agree with me. He made the Wood Memorial (G2) winner the co-fourth choice at 10-1, which is slightly below my fair odds of 12-1. I think we’ll about get that price, however. I also think White Abarrio will be higher than his 10-1 line indicates.
The "obvious" speed is spread out with No. 4 Summer Is Tomorrow the most inside and No. 17 Classic Causeway and No. 19 Zozos on the outside. I give that trio very little chance and will most impact this race based on whether they make the lead and how long they stay there if they do. No. 3 Epicenter and No. 6 Messier have options, and it will be interesting to see the tactics their jockeys employ as both are between the aforementioned “send” candidates. Epicenter’s post is less ideal than Messier’s, but in both cases I imagine their connections will want to be on or very close to the lead.
| PP | Kentucky Derby 2022 | Fair odds | Pct. | ML | Pct. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mo Donegal | 12-1 | 7.692% | 10-1 | 9.091% |
| 2 | Happy Jack | 100-1 | 0.990% | 30-1 | 3.226% |
| 3 | Epicenter | 6-1 | 14.286% | 7-2 | 22.222% |
| 4 | Summer Is Tomorrow | 220-1 | 0.452% | 30-1 | 3.226% |
| 5 | Smile Happy | 16-1 | 5.882% | 20-1 | 4.762% |
| 6 | Messier | 8-1 | 11.111% | 8-1 | 11.111% |
| 7 | Crown Pride | 100-1 | 0.990% | 20-1 | 4.762% |
| 8 | Charge It | 16-1 | 5.882% | 20-1 | 4.762% |
| 9 | Tiz the Bomb | 12-1 | 7.692% | 30-1 | 3.226% |
| 10 | Zandon | 6-1 | 14.286% | 3-1 | 25.000% |
| 11 | Pioneer of Medina | 20-1 | 4.762% | 30-1 | 3.226% |
| 12 | Taiba | 15-1 | 6.250% | 12-1 | 7.692% |
| 13 | Simplification | 30-1 | 3.226% | 20-1 | 4.762% |
| 14 | Barber Road | 100-1 | 0.990% | 30-1 | 3.226% |
| 15 | White Abarrio | 16-1 | 5.882% | 10-1 | 9.091% |
| 16 | Cyberknife | 18-1 | 5.263% | 20-1 | 4.762% |
| 17 | Classic Causeway | 220-1 | 0.452% | 30-1 | 3.226% |
| 18 | Tawny Port | 100-1 | 0.990% | 30-1 | 3.226% |
| 19 | Zozos | 40-1 | 2.439% | 20-1 | 4.762% |
| 20 | Ethereal Road | 207-1 | 0.481% | 30-1 | 3.226% |
| 21 | Rich Strike* | ||||
| 22 | Rattle N Roll* | ||||
| *Also eligible | 100.000% | 138.590% |