Kentucky Derby pedigree: Ted Noffey could go the distance

Ted Noffey stamped himself as the one to beat in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with a sharp victory in Saturday’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland.

Piloted by John Velazquez, the colt tracked moderate early fractions of 23.96, 48.23, and 1:12.62 before asserting control in the stretch and turning back a challenge from Blackout Time. The pretty gray colt completed 1 1/16 miles over a fast track in 1:43.98, finishing the final sixteenth in a sharp 6.55.

The Breeders’ Futurity as a Kentucky Derby 2026 prep, awarding points on a 10-5-3-2-1 scale to the top five finishers.

Ted Noffey (Into Mischief - Streak of Luck, by Old Fashioned) carries a humorous backstory to his name, derived from a transposed social media post intended to reference Spendthrift Farm general manager Ned Toffey. Bred by Aaron and Marie Jones, he was purchased by Spendthrift Farm for $650,000 at the Keeneland September yearling sale.

Conditioned by Todd Pletcher, Ted Noffey is undefeated in three starts, with earnings of $617,963. After breaking his maiden at 6 1/2 furlongs, he destroyed rivals in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) by 8 1/2 lengths before stretching out in the Breeders’ Futurity.

Sire

Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday – Leslie’s Lady, by Tricky Creek) is the cornerstone of Spendthrift Farm’s breeding program and one of the most influential sires of his generation. His offspring have made a significant impact on the Kentucky Derby. 

Four of the last six Derby heroes are sons or grandsons. Sovereignty and Mystik Dan, by his son Goldencents, captured the latest two editions, and Into Mischief became the first stallion to sire back-to-back Derby winners with Authentic in 2020 and Mandaloun in 2021. The latter, however, was elevated to victory following the disqualification of Medina Spirit, who had crossed the wire first. He also produced last year’s 2-year-old champ, Citizen Bull. 

According to Equineline, Into Mischief’s statistics are outstanding, as 9% of his runners are stakes winners, compared with an industry average of about 5%.

Ted Noffey is the first runner produced from the Into Mischief–Old Fashioned cross, but the stallion has enjoyed considerable success with mares from the Unbridled sire line, producing a total of eight black-type winners, including 2019 champion 3-year-old filly and champion female sprinter Covfefe, plus Grade 1-winning turf router Gina Romantica.

Female family

Ted Noffey has plenty of back class in his distaff line, anchored by his sixth dam, the reine-de-course South Ocean. She was a full sister to champion and influential sire Storm Bird, whose legacy includes Storm Cat, the fourth tail sire of Into Mischief.

Ted Noffey’s fifth dam, Oceana, was an unraced sister to Northernette, a Canadian champion at both 2 and 3.

Ted Noffey is the second foal out of Streak of Luck (Old Fashioned – Valeria, by Elusive Quality). A durable mare, Streak of Luck made 30 starts in four seasons. Although her maiden score came sprinting on dirt, she spent the rest of her career on turf. A mile was her specialty, highlighted by six victories, including the Lady Canterbury Stakes, along with a third-place finish in the Autumn Miss (G3).

Her first foal, Fully Authorized, a son of Authentic (by Into Mischief) and thus a three-quarter brother to Ted Noffey, is a 3-year-old turf miler who has made 15 starts with two wins and a second-place finish.

Further back, Ted Noffey’s third dam, Lindsay Jean, was a multiple stakes winner from a mile to 1 1/16 miles, including the Brown Bess Handicap (G3). She also finished third in the Yerba Buena Breeders’ Cup Handicap at 1 1/8 miles. Although none of her immediate offspring earned black type, two of Lindsay Jean’s daughters have, and she also is the second dam of stakes-winning miler Moment’s Pleasure.

Damsire

Old Fashioned (Unbridled’s Song – Collect Call, by Meadowlake), a large gray like his sire, made only six career starts. He was undefeated in his first four starts, including the Remsen (G2) and Southwest (G3). He tasted defeat for the first time with a runner-up finish in the Rebel (G2), and he again had to settle for second in the Arkansas Derby (G1), where he sustained an injury that led to his retirement.

Retired to Taylor Made Farm, Old Fashioned sired 11 stakes winners before being exported to Korea in 2016. As a broodmare sire, however, he is showing promise, with nine black-type winners to date. Among them, Ted Noffey stands out as the most accomplished.

Ted Noffey’s second damsire, Elusive Quality, is the sire of 2004 Kentucky Derby champ and sire Smarty Jones, as well as the prominent sire, Quality Road. He’s also the damsire of Essential Quality, who was third in the 2021 Derby.  

Kentucky Derby contender or pretender?

The last Breeders’ Futurity winner to capture the Kentucky Derby was Claiborne’s own homebred, Swale, in 1983. Since then, only a handful have come close as Essential Quality and Dullahan both checked in third in 2012.

But several Futurity runners-up have fared better at Churchill. Alysheba, second in the 1986 Futurity, and Street Sense, third in the 2006 edition, later wore the roses.

In recent years, the Breeders’ Futurity has been a key prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Six of the last eight Futurity winners to contest the Juvenile hit the board, and three, Classic Empire in 2016, Essential Quality in 2020 and Forte in 2021, earned year-end championship honors.

Ted Noffey is a leggy colt who should find 1 1/8 miles and possibly 1 1/4 miles within his scope. He has a smooth gait and is professional, staying in his lane and switching leads correctly. He is quick out of the gate but is comfortable rating as a pace presser.

Ted Noffey has drawn outside in all three starts, tracking wide before seizing command and pulling clear in the stretch. To this point, he has yet to face a serious challenge.

For now, he’s the de facto Breeders’ Cup Juvenile favorite. Although history may be against him, time will tell whether Ted Noffey can become the next son of Into Mischief to wear the roses.