Kentucky Derby fair odds: Compare to where market settles
First, a note: For the purposes of this article, odds, pool totals, etc. were as of 6 p.m. EDT-about 13 hours before post time for the Kentucky Derby.
I have been bullish on Forever Young once I saw Ragozin assigned him a six (lower numbers are better) for both his Grade 3 Saudi Derby and UAE Derby (G2) wins. The only horse faster is favorite Fierceness, who has run a five twice. Just Steel has run a seven and no one else has run faster than an eight.
My fair odds for the undefeated Japan-bred colt are 7-1, and that was exactly where he was with $3.5 million in the pool. The final pool total will be about $50 million, so this is about seven percent of the total.
With Fierceness favored at 3-1 and Sierra Leone the second choice at 9-2, I expect both horses to take more money on Derby day to cement their favoritism. That will increase the prices on all other horses, including my top pick.
The win odds based on percentage of the Oaks-Derby double pool support this as well.
Fierceness at his current 3-1 is right on my fair odds for him, but based on the double he is definitely coming down. I think he is playable with Forever Young, as exacta combinations with Sierra Leone, Just a Touch and Catching Freedom are likely underlays.
Honor Marie will be too short but as sixth choice still can offer some utility underneath Forever Young and Fierceness.
Epic Ride is outrageous at his 91-1 Oaks-Derby double odds. He will be shorter in the win pool, but his being ignored in an "exotic" pool gives me hope that he will be a tremendous separator regardless of position and who you hook him up with. Maybe Epic Ride is this year's Instilled Regard, who filled in the super behind the top three choices led by eventual Triple Crown champion Justify in 2019, and the superfecta still paid $19,000 for a buck.
Resilience is the horse I've warmed to most this week, and with Honor Marie taking so much money, not unexpectedly, he is creeping into much more playable territory than I expected a week ago.
I'm planning for Forever Young to be a strong single for me in multi-race wagers, especially given my strong opinion on I'm Very Busy in the preceding Turf Classic (G1). As for the Derby itself, man, I'd love to get Epic Ride in there.