Ky. Derby odds: Journalism is clear favorite. Then who?
We know who the favorite will be, and we know who the long shots will be. It is all the horses in between who are in question when it comes to the odds for the Kentucky Derby 2025 on May 3 at Churchill Downs.
Multiple Grade 1 winner Journalism, winner of three consecutive graded stakes including the Santa Anita Derby (G1) last out, will be the post-time favorite. I have Journalism at 3-1 but at this point could see anywhere from 2-1 to 4-1 at off time.
It gets tricky after that. Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Sandman, Florida Derby (G1) runner-up Sovereignty and Wood Memorial (G2) winner Rodriguez all are in that next tier. I lean toward Sandman taking the most money of that trio given his running style, action he took in future wagers and his celebrity. Influencer Griffin Johnson is a co-owner via West Point Thoroughbreds, and the horse's name evokes thoughts of Hall of Famers Mariano Rivera and Metallica.
Sovereignty and Rodriguez have Hall of Fame connections as well, being trained by Bill Mott and Bob Baffert, respectively. The former has a stakes win at Churchill and has done little wrong as a 3-year-old. The latter is the pace factor to fear the most, and Baffert is sure to get wagering attention in his first Derby since 2021.
After that it really gets murky. Tappan Street won the Florida Derby, defeating Sovereignty in the process, but for whatever reason seems to lack little buzz. Still, he will be among the top six choices for sure.
Luxor Cafe ships in from Japan on a four-race win streak, including a win over eventual UAE Derby (G1) winner Admire Daytona to close out his 2-year-old season. Then three straight as a 3-year-old, including a five-length triumph at 3-10 in the Fukuryu. Japan gets bet, but this is a tough read on how much this one will get bet. Forever Young running well last year and Admire Daytona winning the UAE Derby will attract attention, but the ship from Japan is so tough.
After those six horses, the next dozen all are in a group together before you get to Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) runner-up Flying Mohawk and Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner Owen Almighty as the longest shots on the board. I'll go out on a limb and say Owen Almighty will be the longest shot. Owen was the 18th-most popular name in 2022, so that will help it take money, but Flying Mohawk is trained by a Louisville native and is co-owned by a famous baseball player.
| Year | Odds rank | Entrant | Morning line | Off odds-1 | Finish | No. of runners |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Favorite | Fierceness | 5-2 | 3.21 | 15 | 20 |
| 2024 | Longest shot | Grand Mo the First | 50-1 | 49.32 | 18 | |
| 2023 | Favorite | Angel of Empire | 8-1 | 4.06 | 3 | 18 |
| 2023 | Longest shot | Jace's Road | 50-1 | 33.47 | 17 | |
| 2022 | Favorite | Epicenter | 7-2 | 4.10 | 2 | 20 |
| 2022 | Longest shot | Rich Strike | 30-1 | 80.80 | 1 | |
| 2021 | Favorite | Essential Quality | 2-1 | 2.90 | 3 | 19 |
| 2021 | Longest shot | Like the King | 50-1 | 49.90 | 11 | |
| 2020 | Favorite | Tiz the Law | 3-5 | 0.70 | 2 | 15 |
| 2020 | Longest shot | Winning Impression | 50-1 | 50.00 | 12 | |
| 2019 | Favorite | Improbable | 6-1 | 4.00 | 4 | 19 |
| 2019 | Longest shot | Bodexpress | 30-1 | 71.00 | 13 | |
| 2018 | Favorite | Justify | 3-1 | 2.90 | 1 | 20 |
| 2018 | Longest shot | Instilled Regard | 50-1 | 85.10 | 4 | |
| 2017 | Favorite | Always Dreaming | 5-1 | 4.70 | 1 | 20 |
| 2017 | Longest shot | Untrapped | 30-1 | 58.00 | 12 | |
| 2016 | Favorite | Nyquist | 3-1 | 2.30 | 1 | 20 |
| 2016 | Longest shot | Majesto | 30-1 | 56.60 | 18 | |
| 2015 | Favorite | American Pharoah | 5-2 | 2.90 | 1 | 18 |
| 2015 | Longest shot | Frammento | 50-1 | 69.50 | 11 |