Kentucky Derby odds: Sierra Leone must fight a futures curse
Sierra Leone will be out to conquer a February curse that has reared its head for a quarter-century of Kentucky Derby betting history.
His Grade 2 Risen Star triumph Saturday in the slop at Fair Grounds vaulted Sierra Leone to the top of the Derby futures market. In fixed-odds wagering in Nevada, he shortened from 18-1 to best odds of 7-1 at Circa Sports and from 19-2, or plus 950, to 5-1 at Caesars Sportsbook.
Sierra Leone is 6-1 in Kentucky Derby Future Wager.
It was in the pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager run nationally by Churchill Downs where Sierra Leone moved onto a jinxed pedestal. He closed Sunday at 6-1 in pool 4, making him the individual favorite. The horses holding that February distinction all but one year since 1999 never have won the Derby. The lone exception was 2006, when there was no February KDFW.
The all-others option that includes horses other than the 39 individuals in the KDFW closed at 5-1. The February mutuel field, which excluded 23 horses per pool before last year, has cashed on Derby day four times in the last six years.
These were the top three betting choices in each of the February pools since the KDFW began in 1999, with eventual winners noted by asterisks:
| KDFW Feb. pools | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2011 | |||
| All others | 5-1 | All others (Animal Kingdom*) | 2-1 | |
| Sierra Leone | 6-1 | Uncle Mo | 7-2 | |
| Dornoch | 9-1 | Dialed In | 8-1 | |
| 2023 | 2010 | |||
| All others (Mage*) | 2-1 | All others | 3-2 | |
| Forte | 8-1 | Lookin At Lucky | 8-1 | |
| Hoosier Philly | 11-1 | Buddy’s Saint | 10-1 | |
| 2022 | Also: | |||
| All others (Rich Strike*) | 2-1 | Super Saver* | 20-1 | |
| Smile Happy | 8-1 | 2009 | ||
| Classic Causeway | 13-1 | All others (Mine That Bird*) | 9-5 | |
| 2021 | Old Fashioned | 7-1 | ||
| All others | 3-1 | Pioneerof the Nile | 13-1 | |
| Life Is Good | 7-1 | 2008 | ||
| Essential Quality | 8-1 | All others (Big Brown*) | 3-1 | |
| Also: | Pyro | 5-1 | ||
| Mandaloun* | 16-1 | War Pass | 6-1 | |
| Medina Spirit+ | 25-1 | 2007 | ||
| 2020 | All others | 5-2 | ||
| All others | 2-1 | Nobiz Like Shobiz | 8-1 | |
| Nadal | 8-1 | Hard Spun | 10-1 | |
| Tiz the Law | 8-1 | Street Sense* | 10-1 | |
| Also: | 2006 | |||
| Authentic* | 15-1 | No February pool (Barbaro*) | ||
| 2019 | 2005 | |||
| All others (Country House*) | 5-2 | All others | 2-1 | |
| Game Winner | 5-1 | Declan’s Moon | 9-1 | |
| Hidden Scroll | 7-1 | Rockport Harbor | 13-1 | |
| Improbable | 7-1 | Also: | ||
| 2018 | Giacomo* | 25-1 | ||
| All others (Justify*) | 5-2 | 2004 | ||
| Bolt d’Oro | 8-1 | All others (Smarty Jones*) | 9-5 | |
| Good Magic | 8-1 | Eurosilver | 11-1 | |
| 2017 | Birdstone | 12-1 | ||
| All others | 5-1 | 2003 | ||
| McCraken | 6-1 | All others | 2-1 | |
| Irish War Cry | 7-1 | Sky Mesa | 8-1 | |
| Also: | Kafwain | 10-1 | ||
| Always Dreaming* | 42-1 | Toccet | 10-1 | |
| 2016 | Also: | |||
| All others | 5-2 | Funny Cide* | 30-1 | |
| Mohaymen | 4-1 | 2002 | ||
| Nyquist* | 7-1 | All others (War Emblem*) | 5-1 | |
| 2015 | Johannesburg | 7-1 | ||
| All others | 1-1 | Repent | 8-1 | |
| Texas Red | 9-1 | Siphonic | 8-1 | |
| American Pharoah* | 10-1 | 2001 | ||
| 2014 | All others | 4-5 | ||
| All others | 3-2 | Point Given | 8-1 | |
| Honor Code | 12-1 | A P Valentine | 11-1 | |
| Cairo Prince | 13-1 | Also: | ||
| Also: | Monarchos* | 22-1 | ||
| California Chrome* | 30-1 | 2000 | ||
| 2013 | All others | 7-2 | ||
| All others (Orb*) | 8-5 | Greenwood Lake | 9-1 | |
| Verrazano | 11-1 | Fusaichi Pegasus* | 12-1 | |
| Flashback | 12-1 | War Chant | 12-1 | |
| 2012 | 1999 | |||
| All others | 3-2 | All others (Charismatic*) | 4-1 | |
| Union Rags | 7-1 | Exploit | 6-1 | |
| Algorithms | 12-1 | General Challenge | 11-1 | |
| Also: | *Won Kentucky Derby | |||
| I’ll Have Another* | 29-1 | +DQ’d after bets cashed |
Last week’s favorite Dornoch, the Remsen (G2) winner who is expected to make his 2024 debut March 2 in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park, drifted to 11-1 best odds in Las Vegas after closing at 9-1 in the KDFW.
Eclipse Award winner Fierceness, who had been the consensus favorite before his third-place finish in the Holy Bull (G3), widened to 20-1 in Las Vegas and was 16-1 in the national pari-mutuels.
Locked, who is expected to face Dornoch in the Fountain of Youth, also closed at 16-1 in the KDFW, but he carried more bearish odds of 40-1 in Nevada. It was the opposite story for Risen Star runner-up Track Phantom. Although he wound up 20-1 in the KDFW, he shortened to 10-1 in Las Vegas.
Japan-based Forever Young carries the shortest Kentucky Derby odds of horses who are racing this week. The winner of the Nisai Yushun, who will line up in Saturday’s Saudi Derby (G3) in Riyadh, went from 25-1 to 22-1 at Circa and finished at 21-1 in the KDFW.
Timberlake, the 6-5 morning-line favorite for Saturday’s Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn, drifted to 35-1 in Nevada after closing as the third individual choice at 15-1 in the national wager.
Drip, a debut winner for trainer Whit Beckman last week at Fair Grounds, opened at 50-1 at Circa and was one of the eight new names introduced to the futures market. Fourteen horses were dropped, leaving 187 individual horses in the pools.
These were the Kentucky Derby 2024 futures odds Wednesday morning at Caesars and Circa as well as the closing prices Sunday from pool 3 of the KDFW. The betting options are listed in order of their best odds.
| Kentucky Derby 2024 | Caesars | Circa | KDFW | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All other 3-year-olds* | 5-1 | |||
| Sierra Leone | 5-1 | 7-1 | 6-1 | Chad Brown |
| Dornoch | +850 | 11-1 | 9-1 | Danny Gargan |
| Fierceness | 12-1 | 20-1 | 16-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Track Phantom | 10-1 | 10-1 | 20-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| Forever Young | 22-1 | 21-1 | Yoshito Yahagi | |
| Conquest Warrior | 22-1 | 25-1 | 29-1 | Shug McGaughey |
| Hall of Fame | 15-1 | 15-1 | 33-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| Timberlake | 20-1 | 35-1 | 15-1 | Brad Cox |
| Knightsbridge | 22-1 | 37-1 | 23-1 | Bill Mott |
| Honor Marie | 40-1 | 16-1 | 36-1 | Whit Beckman |
| Locked | 15-1 | 40-1 | 16-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Speak Easy | 30-1 | 33-1 | 41-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Agate Road | 45-1 | 40-1 | 37-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Just a Touch | 45-1 | 40-1 | 27-1 | Brad Cox |
| Catching Freedom | 18-1 | 50-1 | 29-1 | Brad Cox |
| Drip | 50-1 | Whit Beckman | ||
| Hades (g) | 30-1 | 50-1 | 32-1 | Joe Orseno |
| Snead | 28-1 | 55-1 | Brendan Walsh | |
| Mystik Dan | 30-1 | 60-1 | 21-1 | Kenny McPeek |
| Nash | 30-1 | 65-1 | 69-1 | Brad Cox |
| Air of Defiance | 75-1 | Brad Cox | ||
| Liberal Arts | 75-1 | 75-1 | 57-1 | Robbie Medina |
| Parchment Party | 75-1 | Bill Mott | ||
| Tuscan Sky | 75-1 | 65-1 | 31-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Born Noble | 60-1 | 45-1 | 79-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Just Steel | 50-1 | 80-1 | 79-1 | D. Wayne Lukas |
| Resilience | 40-1 | 45-1 | 83-1 | Bill Mott |
| Ramjet | 85-1 | Shozo Sasaki | ||
| Rhyme Schemes | 85-1 | Norm Casse | ||
| Book’em Danno (g) | 25-1 | 90-1 | Derek Ryan | |
| Tuscan Gold | 85-1 | 92-1 | Chad Brown | |
| Stronghold | 45-1 | 50-1 | 99-1 | Phil D’Amato |
| Change of Command | 100-1 | 65-1 | Shug McGaughey | |
| Domestic Product | 90-1 | 100-1 | 80-1 | Chad Brown |
| Pirate | 100-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| The Wine Steward | 40-1 | 100-1 | Mike Maker | |
| Victory Avenue | 100-1 | Gustavo Delgado | ||
| Epic Ride | 55-1 | 105-1 | John Ennis | |
| Dimatic | 100-1 | 120-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Amante Bianco | 97-1 | 121-1 | Keisuke Miyata | |
| Carbone | 60-1 | 125-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| General Partner | 125-1 | Chad Brown | ||
| Imperial Gun | 100-1 | 125-1 | 57-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| Molly’s Town (g) | 125-1 | Genaro García | ||
| Next Level | 125-1 | Keith Desormeaux | ||
| Nutella Fella | 125-1 | Gary Contessa | ||
| Pass the Hat | 125-1 | Tom Amoss | ||
| Rocketeer | 125-1 | Brad Cox | ||
| Uncle Heavy | 125-1 | 125-1 | 72-1 | Butch Reid |
| No More Time | 90-1 | 50-1 | 148-1 | José D’Angelo |
| Capital Idea | 125-1 | 150-1 | 131-1 | Christophe Clément |
| Coulditbemajic | 150-1 | Terry Brennan | ||
| Deterministic | 150-1 | 100-1 | 93-1 | Christophe Clément |
| Fifth Avenue | 150-1 | Riley Mott | ||
| Frankie’s Empire | 150-1 | Susan Crowell | ||
| Glengarry | 150-1 | Doug Anderson | ||
| Gold Sweep | 150-1 | Steve Asmussen | ||
| Lucky Jeremy | 150-1 | 125-1 | 131-1 | Bill Morey |
| Normandy Hero | 150-1 | Rodolphe Brisset | ||
| Otello | 75-1 | 150-1 | Christophe Clément | |
| Risk It | 150-1 | Steve Asmussen | ||
| Secret Chat | 150-1 | Roderick Rodríguez | ||
| Self Sufficient | 150-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| The Big Torpedo | 150-1 | Tom Morley | ||
| Union Roll | 150-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Wilson Q | 150-1 | Doug O’Neill | ||
| Real Men Violin | 125-1 | 125-1 | 171-1 | Kenny McPeek |
| Alder (g) | 175-1 | Brad Cox | ||
| Balta | 175-1 | Paulo Lobo | ||
| Divieto | 175-1 | Antonio Sano | ||
| Edified | 175-1 | Steve Asmussen | ||
| Ethan Energy | 75-1 | 175-1 | Brad Cox | |
| Real Macho | 175-1 | Rohan Crichton | ||
| Alotaluck (g) | 200-1 | Ty Garrett | ||
| Commissioner Dan | 200-1 | Pavel Matejka | ||
| General Ledger | 200-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | ||
| Going Mobile | 200-1 | Steve Knapp | ||
| Le Dom Bro | 200-1 | Antonio Sano | ||
| Mary’s Boy Bolt | 200-1 | Mick Ruis | ||
| Otto the Conqueror | 150-1 | 200-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Private Desire | 200-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Roar Ready | 200-1 | Ruben Sierra | ||
| Scatify | 125-1 | 200-1 | John Sadler | |
| Stretch Ride | 85-1 | 200-1 | Dale Romans | |
| The Process | 200-1 | Cherie DeVaux | ||
| West Saratoga | 150-1 | 115-1 | 207-1 | Larry Demeritte |
| El Grande O | 125-1 | 100-1 | 220-1 | Linda Rice |
| Bergen | 100-1 | 225-1 | Brad Cox | |
| American Rascal | 250-1 | Steve Asmussen | ||
| Bonne Chance (g) | 250-1 | Bruce Levine | ||
| Call Me Andy | 250-1 | Brendan Walsh | ||
| Crushed It | 100-1 | 250-1 | Brad Cox | |
| Curlin’s Kaos | 250-1 | 225-1 | Antonio García | |
| Elysian Meadows | 250-1 | Bill Mott | ||
| Informed Patriot | 100-1 | 250-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Moonlight | 250-1 | 250-1 | Todd Pletcher | |
| Patriot Spirit | 250-1 | 125-1 | Mike Campbell | |
| Rathmore | 250-1 | Tom Albertrani | ||
| Time for Truth | 150-1 | 250-1 | Ron Moquett | |
| Tireless | 250-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Valentine Candy | 125-1 | 250-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Ari’s Magic | 300-1 | Christophe Clément | ||
| Beeline | 300-1 | Riley Mott | ||
| Better Than Gold | 200-1 | 300-1 | Gary Mandella | |
| Catire Vizcaya | 300-1 | Juan Carlos Ávila | ||
| Common Defense | 175-1 | 300-1 | Kenny McPeek | |
| Crazy Mason | 300-1 | 200-1 | Greg Sacco | |
| First World War | 125-1 | 300-1 | Brendan Walsh | |
| Lagynos | 300-1 | Steve Asmussen | ||
| My Boy Prince | 300-1 | Mark Casse | ||
| Northern Flame | 125-1 | 300-1 | Kenny McPeek | |
| Noted | 150-1 | 300-1 | Todd Pletcher | |
| Pandagate (r) | 150-1 | 300-1 | Christophe Clément | |
| Seize the Grey | 100-1 | 300-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | |
| Tejon Pass | 150-1 | 300-1 | Peter Miller | |
| Tennessee | 300-1 | Brad Cox | ||
| Turn Up the Trees | 300-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Awesome Road | 150-1 | 350-1 | Brad Cox | |
| Be You | 150-1 | 350-1 | Todd Pletcher | |
| Booth | 150-1 | 350-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Can Group | 350-1 | Mark Casse | ||
| Cardinale | 350-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Hawks Creek | 350-1 | Keith Desormeaux | ||
| Lightline | 100-1 | 350-1 | Brad Cox | |
| Maycocks Bay | 350-1 | Michael Stidham | ||
| Merit | 150-1 | 350-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | |
| Slider | 350-1 | John Sadler | ||
| Stolen Magic | 200-1 | 350-1 | Linda Rice | |
| Twenty to Park | 350-1 | Matt Shirer | ||
| Vitement | 350-1 | Eddie Kenneally | ||
| Vote No | 350-1 | Billy Morey | ||
| Abrumar | 400-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | ||
| Assurbanipal | 400-1 | Hiroyasu Tanaka | ||
| Bentornato | 125-1 | 400-1 | José D’Angelo | |
| Billal | 200-1 | 400-1 | Bill Mott | |
| Blown Cover | 400-1 | Brad Cox | ||
| Bonus Move | 400-1 | Mark Hennig | ||
| Catalytic | 150-1 | 400-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | |
| Catmansue | 400-1 | Jeff Mullins | ||
| Crafted | 200-1 | 400-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Crimson Light | 400-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Dancing Groom | 200-1 | 400-1 | Antonio Sano | |
| Doncho (g) | 110-1 | 400-1 | Michelle Lovell | |
| Eliminate | 400-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Encino | 400-1 | Brad Cox | ||
| Endlessly | 400-1 | Michael McCarthy | ||
| Footprint | 400-1 | Kenny McPeek | ||
| Gettysburg Address | 400-1 | Brad Cox | ||
| Give Me a Reason | 400-1 | Steve Asmussen | ||
| Goldbrick | 125-1 | 400-1 | Bret Calhoun | |
| Good Money | 150-1 | 400-1 | Chad Brown | |
| Heart Headed | 400-1 | Will Walden | ||
| Heartened | 400-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Hop Sing | 400-1 | José D’Angelo | ||
| Ignite the Light | 400-1 | Rick Dutrow | ||
| Inveigled | 200-1 | 400-1 | Jane Cibelli | |
| Iridescent | 200-1 | 400-1 | Brad Cox | |
| Khanate | 400-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Legalize | 150-1 | 400-1 | Cherie DeVaux | |
| Mena | 400-1 | Steve Hobby | ||
| Mikealicious | 400-1 | Mike Maker | ||
| Mischief Joke | 400-1 | Mike Maker | ||
| Mission Beach | 400-1 | Brittany Russell | ||
| Moonlit Sonata | 200-1 | 400-1 | Tim Yakteen | |
| Move to Gold | 400-1 | Chad Brown | ||
| Raging Torrent | 200-1 | 400-1 | Doug O’Neill | |
| Raguel | 400-1 | Brendan Walsh | ||
| Refocus | 400-1 | Doug O’Neill | ||
| Regalo | 200-1 | 400-1 | Brittany Russell | |
| Ridgewood Runner | 400-1 | Carlos Martín | ||
| Run Jalen Run | 400-1 | Joe Sharp | ||
| Searcy (g) | 400-1 | Brad Cox | ||
| Ship to Shore (g) | 400-1 | Eddie Owens Jr. | ||
| Speed Runner | 400-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Stay Hot (r) | 400-1 | Peter Eurton | ||
| Tapalo | 400-1 | John Sadler | ||
| The Donegal Clan | 400-1 | Dane Noel | ||
| Wecallemfuncoupons (g) | 400-1 | Jeffrey Englehart | ||
| West Omaha (f) | 400-1 | Brad Cox | ||
| Woodcourt | 400-1 | Cipriano Contreras | ||
| Lat Long | 150-1 | 428-1 | Kenny McPeek | |
| Magic Grant | 450-1 | Eddie Milligan Jr. | ||
| Aggelos the Great | 500-1 | George Weaver | ||
| Agoo | 500-1 | Whit Beckman | ||
| Karlwithanarl | 500-1 | Robbie Medina | ||
| Texas Town | 500-1 | Chris Hartman | ||
| Who Dey | 125-1 | 500-1 | Tommy Drury | |
| *KDFW only | ||||
| f - filly | ||||
| g - gelding | ||||
| r - ridgling |