Kentucky Derby odds: See new Vegas favorite among 270 horses

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Eight days after Messier ran off to a 15-length victory in a points prep at Santa Anita, he became the new best-priced favorite in Nevada futures betting for the Kentucky Derby.

Circa Sports cut him from 20-1 to 13-1, making him that bookmaker’s co-favorite with Smile Happy, who went from 15-1 to 13-1. But because Smile Happy still carries a 14-1 price at Caesars Sportsbook at William Hill, it is the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) winner who carries the favorite’s role in Las Vegas.

Corniche, a stablemate of Messier, is best priced at 14-1 at Circa. Since both horses are trained by Bob Baffert, they would have to be transferred to another trainer in order to be eligible for Derby qualifying points. That is because Baffert and his horses are banned from Churchill Downs after the late Medina Spirit tested positive for betamethasone after winning last year’s Derby.

Classic Causeway, Charge It and High Oak were the biggest movers since last Monday.

After winning Saturday’s Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, Classic Causeway was cut from 35-1 to 20-1 at Caesars at William Hill and from 42-1 to 18-1 at Circa. “We took huge action on Classic Causeway before the race and then after his win,” Circa risk supervisor Paul Zilm said.

An 8 1/2-length, maiden-breaking win for trainer Todd Pletcher on Saturday at Gulfstream Park dropped Charge It, a Tapit colt, from 40-1 to 16-1 at Caesars at William Hill.

Circa absorbed curiously heavy action on High Oak, who returned to regular workouts for trainer Bill Mott in December after his fourth-place finish last summer in the Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga. The Saratoga Special (G2) winner was cut from 125-1 to 20-1. He still is 80-1 at Caesars at William Hill.

Circa dropped 28 horses from its futures list, most notably Jack Christopher. Just back in Chad Brown’s barn after shin surgery last fall, the winner of last year’s Champagne Stakes (G1) had been 45-1 at Circa. He still is shown at 15-1 at Caesars at William Hill.

Between the two books, 270 horses are available in the Derby futures in Nevada. Shown in order of their best prices, these were the updated odds Monday morning, shown with the close of Pool 3 from the pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager conducted Friday-Sunday by Churchill Downs:

Kentucky Derby futuresCircaC-WHKDFWTrainerSire
All other 3-year-olds*    2-1  
Messier  13-1  10-1 Bob BaffertEmpire Maker
Corniche  14-1    8-1 Bob BaffertQuality Road
Smile Happy  13-1  14-1  8-1Ken McPeekRunhappy
Jack Christopher   15-1 Chad BrownMunnings
Emmanuel  16-1  16-115-1Todd PletcherMore Than Ready
Mo Donegal  18-1  18-114-1Todd PletcherUncle Mo
Classic Causeway  18-1  20-113-1Brian LynchGiant's Causeway
Rattle N Roll  22-1  20-119-1Ken McPeekConnect
Epicenter  25-1  22-124-1Steve AsmussenNot This Time
Newgrange  17-1  25-1 Bob BaffertViolence
Zandon  28-1  20-121-1Chad BrownUpstart
Charge It  30-1  16-1 Todd PletcherTapit
Slow Down Andy  30-1  30-123-1Doug O'NeillNyquist
Commandperformance  30-1  30-133-1Todd PletcherUnion Rags
American Icon  35-1  35-1 Todd PletcherGun Runner
Forbidden Kingdom  22-1  35-118-1Richard MandellaAmerican Pharoah
Chasing Time  22-1  40-125-1Steve AsmussenNot This Time
Echo Zulu (f)  38-1  40-1 Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Major General  45-1  45-132-1Todd PletcherConstitution
In Due Time  50-1  35-137-1Kelly BreenNot This Time
Iron Works  45-1  50-1 Todd PletcherDistorted Humor
Pappacap  50-1  40-131-1Mark CasseGun Runner
Rocket Dawg  50-1  45-1 Brad CoxClassic Empire
White Abarrio  50-1  16-118-1Saffie Joseph Jr.Race Day
Wit   50-1 Todd PletcherPractical Joke
Early Voting  55-1  16-119-1Chad BrownGun Runner
Giant Game  27-1  65-1 Dale RomansGiant's Causeway
God of Love  75-1 61-1Mark CasseCupid
Murray   75-1 Bob BaffertStreet Sense
Oviatt Class   75-1 Keith DesormeauxBernardini
Tiz the Bomb  60-1  75-1 Ken McPeekHit It a Bomb
Varatti  75-1  75-1 Todd PletcherInto Mischief
Barber Road  80-1 63-1John OrtizRaceday
High Oak  20-1  80-1 Bill MottGormley
Shipsational  70-1  85-1 Ed BarkerMidshipman
Dash Attack  95-1  85-1 Ken McPeekMunnings
Simplification  95-1  25-143-1Antonio SanoNot This Time
Big City Lights 100-1 Luis MéndezMr. Big
Call Me Midnight100-1  65-156-1Keith DesormeauxMidnight Lute
Dean's List100-1100-1 Todd PletcherSpeightstown
Doppelgänger  90-1100-1 Bob BaffertInto Mischief
Double Thunder 100-1 Todd PletcherSuper Saver
El Pando 100-1 Jaylan ClaryOutwork
Wharton100-1100-1 Bob BaffertCandy Ride
Howling Time110-1  50-172-1Dale RomansNot This Time
Zozos  50-1120-1 Brad CoxMunnings
Bold Journey125-1125-1 Bill MottHard Spun
Chancellor Bay 125-1 Daniel PitaHonor Code
Cogburn 125-1 Steve AsmussenNot This Time
Cyberknife125-1  75-1 Brad CoxGun Runner
Ethereal Road125-1120-1 D. Wayne LukasQuality Road
Gold Rush Candy 125-1 Bob BaffertDanzing Candy
Golden Code 125-1 Todd PletcherHonor Code
Keepcalmcarryon 125-1 Todd PletcherUnion Rags
Morello125-1125-1 Steve AsmussenClassic Empire
My Prankster 125-1 Todd PletcherInto Mischief
Pinehurst125-1  85-1 Bob BaffertTwirling Candy
Zatip 125-1 Graham MotionTapit
Nitrous Channel110-1135-1 George WeaverNyquist
Old Homestead 135-1 Brett BrinkmanOveranalyze
Roger McQueen 135-1 Larry RivelliUnified
Defend 140-1 Cathal LynchAmerican Freedom
Overbore 140-1 Wesley WardSpeightstown
Annapolis 150-1 Todd PletcherWar Front
Bye Bye Bobby150-1  Todd FincherQuality Road
Courvoisier125-1150-1 Kelly BreenTapit
Don't Wait Up 150-1 Tony DutrowUpstart
Favorite Outlaw150-1150-1 Steve AsmussenMaclean's Music
Flying Drummer150-1100-1 Bob BaffertGun Runner
Gilded Age100-1150-1 Bill MottMedaglia d'Oro
Happy Boy Rocket 150-161-1Bill MottRunhappy
Happy Jack150-1  Doug O'NeillOxbow
Klugman150-1  Eddie PlesaPractical Joke
Little Drama 150-1 Steve AsmussenDramedy
Mackinnon150-1  Doug O'NeillAmerican Pharoah
Make It Big125-1150-188-1Saffie Joseph Jr.Neolithic
Markhamian 150-1 Juan Carlos ÁvilaSocial Inclusion
Micky From Wexford (g) 150-1 John EnnisDialed In
Money Supply150-1  Chad BrownPractical Joke
Sir London150-1100-1 Simon CallaghanMalibu Moon
Surfer Dude150-1  Dallas StewartCurlin
Volcanic150-1125-1 Mark CasseViolence
Winning Map150-1100-1 Bob BaffertLiam's Map
Union Train 160-1 John ShirreffsUnion Rags
Affable Monarch 175-1 Jorge DuarteArrogate
Durante 175-1 Doug O'NeillDistorted Humor
Glacial 175-1 Norm CasseFrosted
Home Brew175-1125-1 Brad CoxStreet Sense
Kenner 175-1 Jamie NessLaoban
Longshadow 175-1 Kelsey DannerTapiture
Page One 175-1 Brad CoxPractical Joke
Power Agenda 175-1 Todd PletcherNyquist
Strava175-1100-1 Dallas StewartInto Mischief
Tengo Mis Papeles 175-1 Bret CalhounMy Golden Song
A. P.'s Secret200-1150-1 Saffie Joseph Jr.Cupid
American Xperiment125-1200-1 Steve AsmussenNyquist
Apprehend200-1150-1 Rene AmescuaArrogate
Barese200-1100-1 Mike MakerLaoban
Belgrade200-1150-1 Brendan WalshHard Spun
Ben Diesel200-1100-1 Dallas StewartWill Take Charge
Blue Kentucky (g)200-1200-1 Wayne CatalanoInclude
Bochombo 200-1 Luis MéndezStreet Boss
Bodock200-1  Brad CoxStreet Boss
Cajun's Magic (g)200-1100-1 Michael YatesCajun Breeze
Coinage 200-1 Mark CasseTapit
Dean Delivers (g)100-1200-1 Michael YatesCajun Breeze
Dry Stout200-1  Mitsunori MakiuraSinister Minister
Fight Your Corner 200-1 Tony MargottaFrosted
Fromanothamutha200-1175-1 Ray HandalUnified
Galt200-1  Bill MottMedaglia d'Oro
Golden Glider200-1100-1 Mark CasseGhostzapper
Great Escape200-1175-1 Rodolphe BrissetMidnight Storm
Gunfighter200-1  Brad CoxGhostzapper
Gunite200-1  55-1 Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Higher Standard200-1  Tom AmossInto Mischief
In Dreams200-1200-1 Brad CoxFrosted
Kavod200-1175-1 Jim ChapmanLea
King Cab (g) 200-1 Eddie Plesa Jr.Noble Bird
McLaren Vale200-1150-1 Bob BaffertGun Runner
Nakatomi (g)200-1  45-1 Wesley WardFiring Line
Peaceful Waters200-1  Al Stall Jr.Dialed In
Quick to Blame200-1  Brad CoxBlame
Rockefeller200-1  55-1 Bob BaffertMedaglia d'Oro
Speaking (g) 200-1 Eddie Owens Jr.Mr Speaker
Spin Wheel200-1  Rusty ArnoldHard Spun
Stolen Base 200-1 Mike MakerBodemeister
Straight Up G200-1125-1 Richard BaltasStraight Fire
Strike Hard200-1120-1 Matthew WilliamsFlashback
Swing Shift200-1135-1 Midnight FormTodd Pletcher
Trafalgar200-1  60-1 Al Stall Jr.Lord Nelson
Trust Our Journey 200-1 Carlos DavidAmerican Pharoah
Feelthebeat 225-1 Norman McKnightCupid
Joker Boy 225-1 Brian KorinerPractical Joke
Rock N Rye 225-1 Walther SolisStay Thirsty
Ava K's Boy 250-1 Carlos MartínClassic Empire
Avant Glory 250-1 Saffie Joseph Jr.Khozan
Bet On Mookie 250-1 Ruben AlvaradoUncaptured
Candy Landing (r) 250-1 Brendan WalshTwirling Candy
Elusive Target 250-1 Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Full Disclosure (g) 250-1 Michael YatesCajun Breeze
Lucky Boss 250-1 Ken McPeekStreet Boss
On the Come Up 250-1 Kelly BreenMission Impazible
What In Blazes 250-1 Jerry HollendorferStraight Fire
Whittington Park 250-1 Brad CoxMidnight Lute
Dance Code 275-1 Juan VázquezHonor Code
Trip to Spain 275-1 Jamey ThomasStay Thirsty
All in Sync300-1  Steve AsmussenMaclean's Music
American Sanctuary300-1  Chris DavisAmerican Freedom
Authorize300-1150-1 Bill MottCurlin
Barossa300-1250-1 Rodolph BrissetInto Mischief
Baytown Frosty 300-1 Paul McEnteeFrosted
Bourbon Heist300-1  85-1 Ian WilkesPractical Joke
Bron and Brow300-1  Ruben AlvaradoGormley
Cattin300-1200-1 Ralph NicksNeolithic
Chattalot300-1250-1 Steve AsmussenMidnight Lute
Classic Moment300-1150-1 Steve AsmussenClassic Empire
Constitutionlawyer300-1125-1 Ray HandalConstitution
Cooke Creek300-1200-1 Jeremiah O'DwyerUncle Mo
Cool Papa G300-1250-1 Steve AsmussenMaclean's Music
Costa Terra300-1  Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Deal Go Down 300-1 Mark CasseCairo Prince
Desert Ruler 300-1 Daniel PitaCandy Ride
Dr. Perry300-1125-1 Steve AsmussenInto Mischief
Fast Draw Munnings300-1  Jeff MullinsMunnings
Finneus300-1125-1 Walther SolisStay Thirsty
Forced Ranking300-1150-1 Chad BrownMastery
Freelancer300-1250-1 Brendan WalshMedaglia d'Oro
Gilded Ruler300-1  Brad CoxInto Mischief
Graphic Detail300-1250-1 Bill MottPractical Joke
H P Moon (r)300-1125-1 Lacey GaudetMalibu Moon
Headline Report (g)300-1135-1 Wesley WardGormley
Ignitis300-1225-1 D. Wayne LukasNyquist
Impressionist (g)300-1250-1 Rob AtrasMission Impazible
Insolito300-1  Brad CoxConnect
Joe300-1150-1 Mike TrombettaDeclaration of War
Judge Davis300-1225-1 Shug McGaugheyDistorted Humor
Kaely's Brother300-1250-1 Brad CoxTwirling Candy
Kamui300-1125-1 Bob BaffertQuality Road
Key Point300-1125-1 Chad BrownInto Mischief
Kid Corleone300-1150-1 Doug O'NeillShackleford
Kitten Mischief (g)300-1  Jonathan ThomasInto Mischief
Kupuna300-1150-1 Bret CalhounHard Spun
Life Is Great300-1175-1 Bob KlesarisTapiture
Lightening Larry300-1175-1 Jeff EnglerUncaptured
Little Vic300-1175-1 Juan Carlos ÁvilaPractical Joke
Local Motive (g)300-1  John Salzman Jr.Divining Rod
Magnolia Midnight300-1  Dallas StewartMidnight Storm
Montebello300-1150-1 Bob BaffertCurlin
Octane (g)300-1  60-1 Carlos DavidBrethren
Overstep300-1120-1 Todd PletcherInto Mischief
Practical Coach 300-1 Butch ReidPractical Joke
Rotknee300-1200-1 Mike MakerRunhappy
Seal Beach300-1  Mike MakerMidshipman
Senbei300-1150-1 Christophe ClémentCandy Ride
Sky and Sand300-1  Steve AsmussenMidshipman
Stellar Tap300-1125-1 Steve AsmussenTapit
Thirsty Always 300-1 Walther SolisStay Thirsty
Trademark (g)300-1250-1 Vicki OliverUpstart
Twenty Four Mamba300-1300-1 Mark CasseClassic Empire
Un Ojo (g)300-1  Tony DutrowLaoban
Underhill's Tab300-1  Al Stall Jr.Unified
Witty (g)300-1  McLane HendriksGreat Notion
Hoist the Gold300-1200-1 Dallas StewartMineshaft
Hope In Him 350-1 Joe OrsenoChitu
Mr. Mox (g) 350-1 Jamie NessDivining Rod
Tops the Chart (g) 350-1 Jorge DuarteMaclean's Music
Unified Report 350-1 Dallas StewartUnified
Almanzo400-1  Brad CoxTapit
Big Papa Steve400-1  Reid FranceMr. Big
Bourbon's Hope (g)400-1250-1 Charlton BakerExaggerator
Brigadier General400-1  Dallas StewartStreet Sense
Combustion400-1  Keizo ItoDiscreet Cat
Concept400-1  Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Daufuskie Island400-1300-1 Jeremiah EnglehartGoldencents
Duke of Love400-1  Josie CarrollCupid
Enbarr400-1125-1 Bob BaffertBrody's Cause
Fan the Fire400-1200-1 Mike MakerHard Spun
Forty Stripes400-1350-1 Jerry HollendorferMunnings
Franklin One Star (g)400-1  Doug O'NeillDanzing Candy
Geno400-1  David DonkBig Brown
Guntown400-1175-1 Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Hagler400-1300-1 Rudy RodríguezTapiture
Hitting Bombs400-1  Brian LynchGun Runner
Hot Rod Rumble (g)400-1  Steve AsmussenMidnight Storm
Ironstone400-1  Willie ArmataMr Speaker
Kevin's Folly400-1200-1 Tom AmossDistorted Humor
Legendary Lore400-1300-1 Bill MoreyPractical Joke
Line Change400-1200-1 Mike StidhamNyquist
Midnight Chrome400-1  Tyler ServisCalifornia Chrome
Midnight Worker400-1225-1 Todd PletcherOutwork
Mob Boss400-1  Jeff BondeSky Mesa
Nineties Country400-1150-1 Brad CoxConnect
O Captain400-1150-1 Gustavo DelgadoCarpe Diem
Of a Revolution400-1200-1 Saffie Joseph Jr.Maclean's Music
Old Town Road400-1  Wesley WardClassic Empire
Osbourne (g)400-1200-1 Ron MoquettTapiture
Oubabe400-1  John SadlerHe Be Fire N Ice
Presidential400-1  Steve AsmussenPioneerof the Nile
Red Knobs400-1  Dale RomansUnion Rags
Red Run400-1150-1 Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Rewire (g)400-1  Brad CoxMohaymen
Run Curtis Run400-1300-1 Mike MakerSummer Front
Skippylongstocking400-1275-1 Saffie Joseph Jr.Exaggerator
Smarten Up400-1  Alfredo VelázquezAmerican Freedom
So Determined400-1200-1 Todd PletcherInto Mischief
Street Art 400-1 Keith DesormeauxStreet Boss
Tough to Tame400-1200-1 Chris DavisSpeightster
Triple Elvis400-1  Chad BrownInto Mischief
Winterwood400-1  Rodolphe BrissetMaclean's Music
Alottahope500-1  John RobbEditorial
B Sudd500-1250-1 Dallas StewartJimmy Creed
Baladi500-1300-1 Brendan WalshPioneerof the Nile
Bali's Shade500-1  Rudy RodríguezBal a Bali
Cairama500-1300-1 Steve AsmussenCairo Prince
Call Me Jamal (g)500-1  Mike PuhichMalibu Moon
Immoral (g)500-1  Brittany RussellInto Mischief
Mamzooj500-1  Dan PeitzDaaher
Naval Aviator500-1  Brad CoxTapit
On Thin Ice500-1  Mark CasseMore Than Ready
Pressure500-1300-1 Steve AsmussenInto Mischief
Shamayim500-1  Rosa RamírezCrema d'Oro
Shastree500-1275-1 Teresa PompayStreet Sense
Spuntacular500-1300-1 Juan Carlos ÁvilaHard Spun
Ten Gauge500-1  Steve AsmussenGun Runner
Texas Red Hot500-1175-1 Randy MorseTexas Red
Unique Unions (g)500-1  Rick SchosbergUnion Jackson
Unpredictable Bay500-1300-1 Al AliCairo Prince
Vivar500-1  Brad CoxCairo Prince
Vodka N Water500-1  Steve AsmussenFed Biz
Who Hoo Thats Me500-1275-1 Jorge AbreuKeen Ice
f-Filly g-Gelding r-Ridgling     
C-WH: Caesars at William Hill     
Circa: Circa Sportsbook     
KDFW: Kentucky Derby Future Wager     
*Not among KDFW individual choices    

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