Kentucky Derby odds: Recency bias sways Las Vegas futures

Photo: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority - edited

Whether it was recency bias, a judgment of quality or a combination of the two, important races from the last two weekends were endorsed in the current Las Vegas futures for Kentucky Derby 2024.

Sierra Leone and Track Phantom, who finished first and second in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, were joined by Rebel (G2) winner Timberlake among the top three choices Wednesday morning to win the May 4 classic.

Kentucky Derby 2024 rankings: See HRNs top 50.

Still the favorite, Sierra Leone drifted from best odds of 7-1 to 8-1 at Circa Sports. He held firm at 5-1 at Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada.

After his victory Saturday at Oaklawn, Timberlake went from 35-1 to plus 1075, not quite 11-1, at Circa. He was cut from 20-1 to 10-1 at Caesars.

Track Phantom, who had been 10-1 at both books, went to plus 1075 at Circa and was unchanged at Caesars.

Forever Young, the Japan-based winner of Saturday’s Saudi Derby (G3) in Riyadh, opened at 15-1 at Caesars and was shortened at Circa from 22-1 to plus 1225, or slightly longer than 12-1.

The what-have-you-done-for-me-lately factor will come into play this weekend at Gulfstream Park. Dornoch, who is best priced at plus 1225, and Locked, who is 15-1, are the top two choices on the morning line for Saturday’s Fountain of Youth (G2).

A third Las Vegas bookmaker will join the market next month. The Westgate Superbook said it will repeat what it did last year when it opens its Derby futures in “mid-March.”

With three horses added and 16 dropped in the past week, these were the odds Wednesday morning for the 174 horses available to Nevada bettors:

 Kentucky Derby 2024 Caesars Circa Last race, track
Sierra Leone     5-1     8-11st Risen Star (G2), FG
Timberlake   10-1+10751st Rebel (G2), OP
Track Phantom   10-1+10752nd Risen Star (G2), FG
Dornoch  +850+12251st Remsen (G2), AQU
Forever Young   15-1+12501st Saudi Derby (G3), KAR
Locked   12-1   15-13rd BC Juvenile, SA
Fierceness   12-1+18503rd Holy Bull (G3), GP
Hall of Fame   15-1   21-17th Risen Star (G2), FG
Conquest Warrior   22-1   26-11st MSW, GP
Hades (g)   30-1   30-11st Holy Bull (G3), GP
Mystik Dan   30-1   30-11st Southwest (G3), OP
Speak Easy   30-1   20-11st MSW, GP
Honor Marie   40-1   20-15th Risen Star (G2), FG
Knightsbridge   22-1   43-11st MSW, CD
Just a Touch   45-1   36-11st MSW, FG
Agate Road   45-1   47-12nd Sam F. Davis, TAM
Drip    50-11st MSW, FG
Epic Ride    50-11st Leonatus, TP (aw)
Catching Freedom   18-1   55-13rd Risen Star (G2), FG
Stronghold   45-1   55-11st Sunland Derby (G3), SUN
Victory Avenue    55-12nd MSW, GP
Book'em Danno (g)   25-1   60-12nd Saudi Derby (G3), KAR
Resilience   40-1   60-14th Risen Star (G2), FG
Born Noble   60-1   65-12nd alw OC, GP
Snead   28-1   65-12nd Gun Runner, FG
Tuscan Sky   65-1   65-11st MSW, FG
Air of Defiance   75-1 1st MSW, KEE
Nash   30-1   75-12nd MSW, FG
Parchment Party   75-1 1st alw OC, CD
Rhyme Schemes   85-1 1st Sar. Special (G2), SAR
Liberal Arts   75-1   90-13rd Southwest (G3), OP
No More Time   90-1   55-11st Sam F. Davis, TAM
Change of Command 100-1   85-111th Sam F. Davis, TAM
Just Steel 100-1 100-17th Rebel (G2), OP
Pirate 100-1 3rd Hopeful (G1), SAR
Tuscan Gold  100-11st MSW, GP
Common Defense 125-1   80-12nd Rebel (G2), OP
Domestic Product   90-1 125-12nd Holy Bull (G3), GP
El Grande O 125-1 125-12nd Withers (G3), AQU
Frankie's Empire 125-1 1st Swale, FG
General Partner 125-1 6th BC Juvenile, SA
Molly's Town (g) 125-1 5th Advent, OP
Nutella Fella 125-1 1st Hopeful (G1), SAR
Pass the Hat 125-1 1st MSW, ELP
Ramjet  125-11st Hyacinth, TOK
Rocketeer 125-1 1st MSW, KEE
Seize the Grey 100-1 125-11st alw OC, OP
The Wine Steward   40-1 125-12nd Breeders' Fut. (G1), KEE
Uncle Heavy 125-1 140-11st Withers (G3), AQU
Amante Bianco  150-11st Cattleya, TOK
Capital Idea 125-1 150-11st MSW, AQU
Coulditbemajic 150-1 5th alw OC, CD
Deterministic 150-1   90-11st MSW, SAR
Fifth Avenue 150-1 1st MSW, ELP
Glengarry 150-1 2nd Springboard Mile, RP
Gold Sweep 150-1 6th alw OC, OP
Normandy Hero 150-1 6th Renaissance, OP
Pandagate (r) 150-1 150-11st Gander, AQU
Real Men Violin 125-1 150-18th Risen Star (G2), FG
Risk It 150-1 5th Swale, FG
Secret Chat 150-1 2nd Aventura, GP
Self Sufficient 150-1 3rd Aventura, GP
The Big Torpedo 150-1 5th Gander, AQU
Union Roll 150-1 7th Iroquois (G3), CD
West Saratoga 150-1 150-13rd Sam F. Davis, TAM
Wilson Q 150-1 2nd Bashford Manor, ELP
Alder (g) 175-1 2nd alw OC, FG
Balta 175-1 1st alw OC, CD
Divieto 175-1 8th Ed Brown, CD
Edified 175-1 5th alw OC, KEE
Bergen 100-1 200-13rd Saudi Derby (G3), KAR
Commissioner Dan 200-1 1st MSW, KEE
Ethan Energy   75-1 200-14th Lecomte (G3), FG
General Ledger 200-1 5th alw OC, GP (t)
Going Mobile 200-1 5th Golden St. Juvenile, SA
Imperial Gun 150-1 200-14th alw OC, OP
Iridescent 200-1 2nd alw OC, AQU
Lat Long  200-13rd Lecomte (G3), FG
Lightline 100-1 200-13rd Withers (G3), AQU
Lucky Jeremy 150-1 200-13rd Sunland Derby (G3), SUN
Mary's Boy Bolt 200-1 5th Del Mar Fut. (G1), DMR
Private Desire 200-1 10th Remsen (G2), AQU
Raging Torrent 200-1 6th Springboard Mile, RP
Real Macho  200-11st alw OC, GP
Roar Ready 200-1 4th alw OC, GP
Scatify 125-1 200-13rd Robert B. Lewis, SA
Stolen Magic 200-1 4th alw OC, AQU
The Process 200-1 6th alw OC, GP (t)
American Rascal 250-1 6th Ozark, OP
Bonne Chance (g) 250-1 6th, opt claiming, AQU
Call Me Andy 250-1 4th Md. Juvenile, LRL
Carbone 100-1 250-16th Rebel (G2), OP
Dimatic  250-15th Rebel (G2), OP
Northern Flame 125-1 250-13rd Rebel (G2), OP
Otello   75-1 250-16th Holy Bull (G3), GP
Otto the Conqueror 150-1 250-16th Southwest (G3), OP
Patriot Spirit 250-1 200-19th Sam F. Davis, TAM
Rathmore 250-1 3rd alw OC, TAM
Tennessee  250-11st alw OC, TP (aw)
Tireless  250-17th Sam F. Davis, TAM
Alotaluck (g)  300-12nd Sunland Derby (G3), SUN
Catire Vizcaya 300-1 5th alw OC, TAM
Crazy Mason 300-1 300-16th Sam F. Davis, TAM
Crushed It  300-15th MSW, OP
Curlin's Kaos 250-1 300-14th Sunland Derby (G3), SUN
Elysian Meadows  300-14th Sam F. Davis, TAM
Informed Patriot 100-1 300-15th Sunland Derby (G3), SUN
Le Dom Bro 150-1 300-12nd Swale, FG
Merit 125-1 300-13rd alw OC, GP
Moonlight 250-1 300-19th Risen Star (G2), FG
Next Level  300-18th Rebel (G2), OP
Stretch Ride   85-1 300-13rd Ky. Jockey Club (G2), CD
Top Conor  300-11st MSW, GP
Valentine Candy 125-1 300-11st Ozark, OP
Woodcourt  300-14th Rebel (G2), OP
Be You 150-1 350-15th MSW, GP
Better Than Gold 200-1 350-16th Robert B. Lewis, SA
First World War 125-1 350-11st Kitten's Joy (G3), GP (t)
My Boy Prince  350-13rd BC Juvenile Turf, SA (t)
Noted 150-1 350-17th Kitten's Joy (G3), GP (t)
Slider  350-13rd San Vicente (G2), SA
Time for Truth 150-1 350-12nd Ozark, OP
Turn Up the Trees  350-17th alw OC, GP (t)
Antonio of Venice  400-12nd Rego Park, AQU
Ari's Magic  400-11st MSW, TAM
Awesome Road 150-1 400-14th Southwest (G3), OP
Beeline  400-11st MSW, GP
Bentornato 125-1 400-13rd Saudi Derby (G3), KAR
Billal 200-1 400-14th Swale, FG
Bonus Move  400-13rd MSW, GP
Booth 150-1 400-11st alw OC, OP
Can Group  400-16th Lecomte (G3), FG
Cardinale  400-111th Risen Star (G2), FG
Catmansue  400-12nd alw OC, SA (t)
Crafted 200-1 400-16th, R. Allison Derby, SUN
Dancing Groom 200-1 400-15th Holy Bull (G3), GP
Eliminate  400-11st MSW, AQU
Encino  400-11st MSW, TP (aw)
Footprint  400-13rd alw OC, OP
Gettysburg Address  400-14th alw OC, OP
Give Me a Reason  400-11st MSW, OP
Hawks Creek  400-13rd MSW, FG
Katheeb  400-19th alw OC, GP (t)
Khanate  400-15th Withers (G3), AQU
Maycocks Bay  400-11st alw OC, FG
Moonlit Sonata 200-1 400-15th Robert B. Lewis, SA
Raguel  400-13rd alw OC, GP
Ridgewood Runner  400-11st alw OC, AQU
Searcy (g)  400-19th alw OC, OP
Speed Runner  400-16th Withers (G3), AQU
Tapalo  400-12nd El Camino Real, GG (aw)
Vitement  400-13rd Ozark, OP
Vote No  400-15th Leonatus, TP (aw)
Abrumar  500-11st alw OC, GP (t)
Assurbanipal  500-11st newcomer, TOK
Catalytic 150-1 500-11st MSW, GP
Doncho (g) 110-1 500-11st alw OC, FG
Endlessly  500-11st El Camino Real, GG (aw)
Goldbrick 125-1 500-11st MSW, OP
Good Money 150-1 500-11st MSW, TAM
Heart Headed  500-12nd Baffle, SA (t)
Heartened  500-11st MSW, TAM
Inveigled 200-1 500-14th Holy Bull (G3), GP
Karlwithanarl  500-11st allowance, TP (aw)
Legalize 150-1 500-17th Swale, FG
Mischief Joke  500-11st Rego Park, AQU
Mission Beach  500-17th Withers (G3), AQU
Move to Gold  500-11st Awad, BAQ (t)
Refocus  500-14th Graduation, DMR
Ship to Shore (g)  500-11st Limestone, GP
Stay Hot (r)  500-11st Baffle, SA (t)
The Donegal Clan  500-14th Ozark, OP
Wecallemfuncoupons (g)  500-12nd opt clmg, AQU
Who Dey 125-1 500-11st alw OC, CD
g - gelding  aw - all-weather
r - ridgling  t - turf 

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