Kentucky Derby odds: Recency bias sways Las Vegas futures
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Whether it was recency bias, a judgment of quality or a combination of the two, important races from the last two weekends were endorsed in the current Las Vegas futures for Kentucky Derby 2024.
Sierra Leone and Track Phantom, who finished first and second in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, were joined by Rebel (G2) winner Timberlake among the top three choices Wednesday morning to win the May 4 classic.
Kentucky Derby 2024 rankings: See HRN’s top 50.
Still the favorite, Sierra Leone drifted from best odds of 7-1 to 8-1 at Circa Sports. He held firm at 5-1 at Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada.
After his victory Saturday at Oaklawn, Timberlake went from 35-1 to plus 1075, not quite 11-1, at Circa. He was cut from 20-1 to 10-1 at Caesars.
Track Phantom, who had been 10-1 at both books, went to plus 1075 at Circa and was unchanged at Caesars.
Forever Young, the Japan-based winner of Saturday’s Saudi Derby (G3) in Riyadh, opened at 15-1 at Caesars and was shortened at Circa from 22-1 to plus 1225, or slightly longer than 12-1.
The what-have-you-done-for-me-lately factor will come into play this weekend at Gulfstream Park. Dornoch, who is best priced at plus 1225, and Locked, who is 15-1, are the top two choices on the morning line for Saturday’s Fountain of Youth (G2).
A third Las Vegas bookmaker will join the market next month. The Westgate Superbook said it will repeat what it did last year when it opens its Derby futures in “mid-March.”
With three horses added and 16 dropped in the past week, these were the odds Wednesday morning for the 174 horses available to Nevada bettors:
| Kentucky Derby 2024 | Caesars | Circa | Last race, track |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sierra Leone | 5-1 | 8-1 | 1st Risen Star (G2), FG |
| Timberlake | 10-1 | +1075 | 1st Rebel (G2), OP |
| Track Phantom | 10-1 | +1075 | 2nd Risen Star (G2), FG |
| Dornoch | +850 | +1225 | 1st Remsen (G2), AQU |
| Forever Young | 15-1 | +1250 | 1st Saudi Derby (G3), KAR |
| Locked | 12-1 | 15-1 | 3rd BC Juvenile, SA |
| Fierceness | 12-1 | +1850 | 3rd Holy Bull (G3), GP |
| Hall of Fame | 15-1 | 21-1 | 7th Risen Star (G2), FG |
| Conquest Warrior | 22-1 | 26-1 | 1st MSW, GP |
| Hades (g) | 30-1 | 30-1 | 1st Holy Bull (G3), GP |
| Mystik Dan | 30-1 | 30-1 | 1st Southwest (G3), OP |
| Speak Easy | 30-1 | 20-1 | 1st MSW, GP |
| Honor Marie | 40-1 | 20-1 | 5th Risen Star (G2), FG |
| Knightsbridge | 22-1 | 43-1 | 1st MSW, CD |
| Just a Touch | 45-1 | 36-1 | 1st MSW, FG |
| Agate Road | 45-1 | 47-1 | 2nd Sam F. Davis, TAM |
| Drip | 50-1 | 1st MSW, FG | |
| Epic Ride | 50-1 | 1st Leonatus, TP (aw) | |
| Catching Freedom | 18-1 | 55-1 | 3rd Risen Star (G2), FG |
| Stronghold | 45-1 | 55-1 | 1st Sunland Derby (G3), SUN |
| Victory Avenue | 55-1 | 2nd MSW, GP | |
| Book'em Danno (g) | 25-1 | 60-1 | 2nd Saudi Derby (G3), KAR |
| Resilience | 40-1 | 60-1 | 4th Risen Star (G2), FG |
| Born Noble | 60-1 | 65-1 | 2nd alw OC, GP |
| Snead | 28-1 | 65-1 | 2nd Gun Runner, FG |
| Tuscan Sky | 65-1 | 65-1 | 1st MSW, FG |
| Air of Defiance | 75-1 | 1st MSW, KEE | |
| Nash | 30-1 | 75-1 | 2nd MSW, FG |
| Parchment Party | 75-1 | 1st alw OC, CD | |
| Rhyme Schemes | 85-1 | 1st Sar. Special (G2), SAR | |
| Liberal Arts | 75-1 | 90-1 | 3rd Southwest (G3), OP |
| No More Time | 90-1 | 55-1 | 1st Sam F. Davis, TAM |
| Change of Command | 100-1 | 85-1 | 11th Sam F. Davis, TAM |
| Just Steel | 100-1 | 100-1 | 7th Rebel (G2), OP |
| Pirate | 100-1 | 3rd Hopeful (G1), SAR | |
| Tuscan Gold | 100-1 | 1st MSW, GP | |
| Common Defense | 125-1 | 80-1 | 2nd Rebel (G2), OP |
| Domestic Product | 90-1 | 125-1 | 2nd Holy Bull (G3), GP |
| El Grande O | 125-1 | 125-1 | 2nd Withers (G3), AQU |
| Frankie's Empire | 125-1 | 1st Swale, FG | |
| General Partner | 125-1 | 6th BC Juvenile, SA | |
| Molly's Town (g) | 125-1 | 5th Advent, OP | |
| Nutella Fella | 125-1 | 1st Hopeful (G1), SAR | |
| Pass the Hat | 125-1 | 1st MSW, ELP | |
| Ramjet | 125-1 | 1st Hyacinth, TOK | |
| Rocketeer | 125-1 | 1st MSW, KEE | |
| Seize the Grey | 100-1 | 125-1 | 1st alw OC, OP |
| The Wine Steward | 40-1 | 125-1 | 2nd Breeders' Fut. (G1), KEE |
| Uncle Heavy | 125-1 | 140-1 | 1st Withers (G3), AQU |
| Amante Bianco | 150-1 | 1st Cattleya, TOK | |
| Capital Idea | 125-1 | 150-1 | 1st MSW, AQU |
| Coulditbemajic | 150-1 | 5th alw OC, CD | |
| Deterministic | 150-1 | 90-1 | 1st MSW, SAR |
| Fifth Avenue | 150-1 | 1st MSW, ELP | |
| Glengarry | 150-1 | 2nd Springboard Mile, RP | |
| Gold Sweep | 150-1 | 6th alw OC, OP | |
| Normandy Hero | 150-1 | 6th Renaissance, OP | |
| Pandagate (r) | 150-1 | 150-1 | 1st Gander, AQU |
| Real Men Violin | 125-1 | 150-1 | 8th Risen Star (G2), FG |
| Risk It | 150-1 | 5th Swale, FG | |
| Secret Chat | 150-1 | 2nd Aventura, GP | |
| Self Sufficient | 150-1 | 3rd Aventura, GP | |
| The Big Torpedo | 150-1 | 5th Gander, AQU | |
| Union Roll | 150-1 | 7th Iroquois (G3), CD | |
| West Saratoga | 150-1 | 150-1 | 3rd Sam F. Davis, TAM |
| Wilson Q | 150-1 | 2nd Bashford Manor, ELP | |
| Alder (g) | 175-1 | 2nd alw OC, FG | |
| Balta | 175-1 | 1st alw OC, CD | |
| Divieto | 175-1 | 8th Ed Brown, CD | |
| Edified | 175-1 | 5th alw OC, KEE | |
| Bergen | 100-1 | 200-1 | 3rd Saudi Derby (G3), KAR |
| Commissioner Dan | 200-1 | 1st MSW, KEE | |
| Ethan Energy | 75-1 | 200-1 | 4th Lecomte (G3), FG |
| General Ledger | 200-1 | 5th alw OC, GP (t) | |
| Going Mobile | 200-1 | 5th Golden St. Juvenile, SA | |
| Imperial Gun | 150-1 | 200-1 | 4th alw OC, OP |
| Iridescent | 200-1 | 2nd alw OC, AQU | |
| Lat Long | 200-1 | 3rd Lecomte (G3), FG | |
| Lightline | 100-1 | 200-1 | 3rd Withers (G3), AQU |
| Lucky Jeremy | 150-1 | 200-1 | 3rd Sunland Derby (G3), SUN |
| Mary's Boy Bolt | 200-1 | 5th Del Mar Fut. (G1), DMR | |
| Private Desire | 200-1 | 10th Remsen (G2), AQU | |
| Raging Torrent | 200-1 | 6th Springboard Mile, RP | |
| Real Macho | 200-1 | 1st alw OC, GP | |
| Roar Ready | 200-1 | 4th alw OC, GP | |
| Scatify | 125-1 | 200-1 | 3rd Robert B. Lewis, SA |
| Stolen Magic | 200-1 | 4th alw OC, AQU | |
| The Process | 200-1 | 6th alw OC, GP (t) | |
| American Rascal | 250-1 | 6th Ozark, OP | |
| Bonne Chance (g) | 250-1 | 6th, opt claiming, AQU | |
| Call Me Andy | 250-1 | 4th Md. Juvenile, LRL | |
| Carbone | 100-1 | 250-1 | 6th Rebel (G2), OP |
| Dimatic | 250-1 | 5th Rebel (G2), OP | |
| Northern Flame | 125-1 | 250-1 | 3rd Rebel (G2), OP |
| Otello | 75-1 | 250-1 | 6th Holy Bull (G3), GP |
| Otto the Conqueror | 150-1 | 250-1 | 6th Southwest (G3), OP |
| Patriot Spirit | 250-1 | 200-1 | 9th Sam F. Davis, TAM |
| Rathmore | 250-1 | 3rd alw OC, TAM | |
| Tennessee | 250-1 | 1st alw OC, TP (aw) | |
| Tireless | 250-1 | 7th Sam F. Davis, TAM | |
| Alotaluck (g) | 300-1 | 2nd Sunland Derby (G3), SUN | |
| Catire Vizcaya | 300-1 | 5th alw OC, TAM | |
| Crazy Mason | 300-1 | 300-1 | 6th Sam F. Davis, TAM |
| Crushed It | 300-1 | 5th MSW, OP | |
| Curlin's Kaos | 250-1 | 300-1 | 4th Sunland Derby (G3), SUN |
| Elysian Meadows | 300-1 | 4th Sam F. Davis, TAM | |
| Informed Patriot | 100-1 | 300-1 | 5th Sunland Derby (G3), SUN |
| Le Dom Bro | 150-1 | 300-1 | 2nd Swale, FG |
| Merit | 125-1 | 300-1 | 3rd alw OC, GP |
| Moonlight | 250-1 | 300-1 | 9th Risen Star (G2), FG |
| Next Level | 300-1 | 8th Rebel (G2), OP | |
| Stretch Ride | 85-1 | 300-1 | 3rd Ky. Jockey Club (G2), CD |
| Top Conor | 300-1 | 1st MSW, GP | |
| Valentine Candy | 125-1 | 300-1 | 1st Ozark, OP |
| Woodcourt | 300-1 | 4th Rebel (G2), OP | |
| Be You | 150-1 | 350-1 | 5th MSW, GP |
| Better Than Gold | 200-1 | 350-1 | 6th Robert B. Lewis, SA |
| First World War | 125-1 | 350-1 | 1st Kitten's Joy (G3), GP (t) |
| My Boy Prince | 350-1 | 3rd BC Juvenile Turf, SA (t) | |
| Noted | 150-1 | 350-1 | 7th Kitten's Joy (G3), GP (t) |
| Slider | 350-1 | 3rd San Vicente (G2), SA | |
| Time for Truth | 150-1 | 350-1 | 2nd Ozark, OP |
| Turn Up the Trees | 350-1 | 7th alw OC, GP (t) | |
| Antonio of Venice | 400-1 | 2nd Rego Park, AQU | |
| Ari's Magic | 400-1 | 1st MSW, TAM | |
| Awesome Road | 150-1 | 400-1 | 4th Southwest (G3), OP |
| Beeline | 400-1 | 1st MSW, GP | |
| Bentornato | 125-1 | 400-1 | 3rd Saudi Derby (G3), KAR |
| Billal | 200-1 | 400-1 | 4th Swale, FG |
| Bonus Move | 400-1 | 3rd MSW, GP | |
| Booth | 150-1 | 400-1 | 1st alw OC, OP |
| Can Group | 400-1 | 6th Lecomte (G3), FG | |
| Cardinale | 400-1 | 11th Risen Star (G2), FG | |
| Catmansue | 400-1 | 2nd alw OC, SA (t) | |
| Crafted | 200-1 | 400-1 | 6th, R. Allison Derby, SUN |
| Dancing Groom | 200-1 | 400-1 | 5th Holy Bull (G3), GP |
| Eliminate | 400-1 | 1st MSW, AQU | |
| Encino | 400-1 | 1st MSW, TP (aw) | |
| Footprint | 400-1 | 3rd alw OC, OP | |
| Gettysburg Address | 400-1 | 4th alw OC, OP | |
| Give Me a Reason | 400-1 | 1st MSW, OP | |
| Hawks Creek | 400-1 | 3rd MSW, FG | |
| Katheeb | 400-1 | 9th alw OC, GP (t) | |
| Khanate | 400-1 | 5th Withers (G3), AQU | |
| Maycocks Bay | 400-1 | 1st alw OC, FG | |
| Moonlit Sonata | 200-1 | 400-1 | 5th Robert B. Lewis, SA |
| Raguel | 400-1 | 3rd alw OC, GP | |
| Ridgewood Runner | 400-1 | 1st alw OC, AQU | |
| Searcy (g) | 400-1 | 9th alw OC, OP | |
| Speed Runner | 400-1 | 6th Withers (G3), AQU | |
| Tapalo | 400-1 | 2nd El Camino Real, GG (aw) | |
| Vitement | 400-1 | 3rd Ozark, OP | |
| Vote No | 400-1 | 5th Leonatus, TP (aw) | |
| Abrumar | 500-1 | 1st alw OC, GP (t) | |
| Assurbanipal | 500-1 | 1st newcomer, TOK | |
| Catalytic | 150-1 | 500-1 | 1st MSW, GP |
| Doncho (g) | 110-1 | 500-1 | 1st alw OC, FG |
| Endlessly | 500-1 | 1st El Camino Real, GG (aw) | |
| Goldbrick | 125-1 | 500-1 | 1st MSW, OP |
| Good Money | 150-1 | 500-1 | 1st MSW, TAM |
| Heart Headed | 500-1 | 2nd Baffle, SA (t) | |
| Heartened | 500-1 | 1st MSW, TAM | |
| Inveigled | 200-1 | 500-1 | 4th Holy Bull (G3), GP |
| Karlwithanarl | 500-1 | 1st allowance, TP (aw) | |
| Legalize | 150-1 | 500-1 | 7th Swale, FG |
| Mischief Joke | 500-1 | 1st Rego Park, AQU | |
| Mission Beach | 500-1 | 7th Withers (G3), AQU | |
| Move to Gold | 500-1 | 1st Awad, BAQ (t) | |
| Refocus | 500-1 | 4th Graduation, DMR | |
| Ship to Shore (g) | 500-1 | 1st Limestone, GP | |
| Stay Hot (r) | 500-1 | 1st Baffle, SA (t) | |
| The Donegal Clan | 500-1 | 4th Ozark, OP | |
| Wecallemfuncoupons (g) | 500-1 | 2nd opt clmg, AQU | |
| Who Dey | 125-1 | 500-1 | 1st alw OC, CD |
| g - gelding | aw - all-weather | ||
| r - ridgling | t - turf |
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