Kentucky Derby odds: Rebel upset moves futures; 198 are left

The transfer of horses from trainer Bob Baffert to Tim Yakteen did not make much of a ripple in the Las Vegas futures for Kentucky Derby 2023. The surprising result of Saturday’s Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, however, did.

Confidence Game, who was 18-1 to win the Rebel, was cut to odds nearly that short to wear the roses at Churchill Downs on May 6. When bettors took him to as little as 20-1, he went longer again before settling Monday morning at 32-1 at Circa Sports and 26-1 at Caesars Sportsbook.

Trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by James Graham, the Candy Ride colt who had been 0-for-2 in stakes also had been 100-1 last week at Circa and 65-1 at Caesars.

Red Route One, the 9-1 runner-up in the Rebel, and Reincarnate, who ran third at 9-2, also shortened in the Derby futures. Red Route One, from the Steve Asmussen barn, had his best price cut from 65-1 to 35-1. Reincarnate, who was moved from Baffert to Yakteen last week, went from 50-1 to 30-1.

Verifying, the 3-2 favorite who got caught in traffic at the quarter pole before finishing fourth at Oaklawn, went briefly to 20-1 in Nevada before settling back at his old best price of 30-1.

Arabian Knight, who was among the eight Baffert colts reportedly moved to Yakteen, was cut from 6-1 to 5-1 as the Derby favorite at Caesars. Circa moved him 8-1 to more than 9-1, precisely plus 985, or a potential profit of $9.85 for each $1 bet on him. Baffert, who was suspended by Churchill Downs because of Medina Spirit’s failed drug test in 2021, has until Tuesday to transfer horses and make them eligible for the Derby.

Forte, the Eclipse Award winner who is the 7-5 morning-line favorite for Saturday’s Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park, was cut to a consensus 7-1 for the Derby. The three-time Grade 1 winner trained by Todd Pletcher had been 9-1 at Caesars. Forte went from 8-1 to plus 750 at Circa, where he became that casino group’s Derby favorite.

Caesars added Oaklawn allowance river Two Eagles River at 125-1, and dropped Saudi Derby (G3) runner-up Havnameltdown, whom Baffert said would be focused on one-turn races. Of the 155 horses on its Derby board, 16 had their odds shortened, and 11 went longer.

Circa thinned its list considerably last week, dropping 32 names and adding seven to leave 130. There were 25 horses whose prices were cut, and the odds drifted for 58 others.

Between the two Nevada bookmakers, 198 names were left in the Derby futures market Monday morning. They are listed here in order of their best prices shown in bold: