Kentucky Derby odds: New favorite tops 88 in Vegas futures
Success and failure in prep races. That would seem to be the barometer for Kentucky Derby 2025 futures odds.
But what about doing nothing?
Citizen Bull did little more than gallop around Santa Anita and turn in a six-furlong breeze in the past week when three important prep races were run. That was good enough to make him the new favorite in Las Vegas to win the Derby.
DeRosa: Kentucky Derby 2025 fair odds.
Caesars Sportsbook Nevada cut last month’s winner of the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis stakes from the 9-1 second choice to its new favorite at 7 1/2 to 1. Or plus 750. Or 15-2. Trainer Bob Baffert is targeting next month’s Santa Anita Derby (G1) as Citizen Bull’s last race before running for the roses May 3 at Churchill Downs.
Winning last weekend did have its influence on the Caesars futures. Making his 3-year-old debut for trainer Michael McCarthy, Journalism went from 22-1 to 9-1 after he outdueled former favorite Barnes in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita. Barnes, who was 2-for-2 last year for Baffert, moved from 8-1 to 15-1. Citizen Bull, Journalism and Barnes all may line up together April 5 in the Santa Anita Derby.
Sovereignty, who defied a speed bias at Gulfstream Park to win the Fountain of Youth (G2), was cut from 16-1 to 11-1. Despite losing Saturday’s stretch duel, runner-up River Thames still shortened from 40-1 to 20-1 in Las Vegas. A rematch is expected March 29 in the Florida Derby (G1).
Cornucopian, who made a winning debut Feb. 23 on the Rebel (G2) undercard at Oaklawn, was cut from 28-1 to 15-1. That gave Baffert three of the top five horses in the Kentucky Derby futures. Into Mischief has four, having sired Citizen Bull, Sovereignty, Barnes and Cornucopian.
Flood Zone opened in the Nevada futures last week and was posted at 50-1 after finishing first in the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct. Trainer Brad Cox said the Florida Derby could be the Frosted colt’s next race. He also said the Wood Memorial (G2) and UAE Derby (G2), both April 5, were possible choices.
Burnham Square was conspicuous by his drift in the futures. After finishing fourth in the Fountain of Youth, he went from 14-1 to 40-1.
Eighty-five horses were listed in the Kentucky Derby futures at Caesars on Wednesday morning and are shown with their new odds and those from last Wednesday. They are available for betting via Caesars and William Hill outlets and apps in Nevada and to out-of-state bettors who registered with licensed proxies.
| Kentucky Derby | Caesars | Was | Trainer | Last race |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizen Bull | +750 | 9-1 | Bob Baffert | 1st Robert B. Lewis (G3), SA |
| Journalism | 9-1 | 22-1 | Michael McCarthy | 1st San Felipe (G2), SA |
| Sovereignty | 11-1 | 16-1 | Bill Mott | 1st Fountain of Youth (G2), GP |
| Barnes | 15-1 | 8-1 | Bob Baffert | 2nd San Felipe (G2), SA |
| Cornucopian | 15-1 | 28-1 | Bob Baffert | 1st MSW, OP |
| Coal Battle | 16-1 | 18-1 | Lonnie Briley | 1st Rebel (G2), OP |
| Sandman | 17-1 | 25-1 | Mark Casse | 3rd Rebel (G2), OP |
| River Thames | 20-1 | 40-1 | Todd Pletcher | 2nd Fountain of Youth (G2), GP |
| Patch Adams | 25-1 | 25-1 | Brad Cox | 4th Southwest (G3), OP |
| Chancer McPatrick | 30-1 | 30-1 | Chad Brown | 6th BC Juvenile (G1), DMR |
| Golden Vekoma | 30-1 | 25-1 | Ahmad bin Harmash | 1st Saudi Derby (G3), KAR |
| Captain Cook | 35-1 | 30-1 | Rick Dutrow | 1st Withers, AQU |
| Getaway Car | 35-1 | 22-1 | Bob Baffert | 1st Sunland Derby, SUN |
| Madaket Road | 35-1 | 28-1 | Bob Baffert | 2nd Rebel (G2), OP |
| Bullard | 40-1 | 40-1 | Michael McCarthy | 3rd San Vicente (G2), SA |
| Burnham Square (g) | 40-1 | 14-1 | Ian Wilkes | 4th Fountain of Youth (G2), GP |
| East Avenue | 40-1 | 40-1 | Brendan Walsh | 10th Risen Star (G2), FG |
| Gaming | 40-1 | 35-1 | Bob Baffert | 8th Southwest (G3), OP |
| Grande | 40-1 | 50-1 | Todd Pletcher | 1st alw OC, GP |
| Romanesque | 40-1 | 40-1 | Bob Baffert | 2nd San Vicente (G2), SA |
| Baeza | 45-1 | 50-1 | John Shirreffs | 1st MSW, SA |
| Caldera | 45-1 | 50-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | 2nd Sunland Derby, SUN |
| Tappan Street | 45-1 | 45-1 | Brad Cox | 2nd Holy Bull (G3), GP |
| Cyclone State | 50-1 | 50-1 | Chad Summers | 9th Saudi Derby (G3), KAR |
| Flood Zone | 50-1 | Brad Cox | 1st Gotham (G3), AQU | |
| John Hancock | 50-1 | 50-1 | Brad Cox | 1st Sam F. Davis, TAM |
| Luxor Café | 50-1 | 95-1 | Noriyuki Hori | 1st Hyacinth, TOK |
| Owen Almighty | 55-1 | 55-1 | Brian Lynch | 2nd Sam F. Davis, TAM |
| Tiz Secure | 55-1 | 45-1 | Bob Baffert | 1st MSW, SA |
| Brodeur | 60-1 | 60-1 | Mark Casse | 1st alw OC, OP |
| Built | 60-1 | 60-1 | Wayne Catalano | 3rd Risen Star (G2), FG |
| Chunk of Gold | 60-1 | 60-1 | Ethan West | 2nd Risen Star (G2), FG |
| Disco Time | 60-1 | 60-1 | Brad Cox | 1st Lecomte (G3), FG |
| Disruptor | 60-1 | Todd Pletcher | 1st MSW, GP | |
| Gunmetal | 60-1 | 60-1 | Brad Cox | 3rd Swale, GP |
| Rodríguez | 60-1 | 20-1 | Bob Baffert | 3rd San Felipe (G2), SA |
| Admiral Dennis | 65-1 | 65-1 | Brad Cox | 6th Rebel (G2), OP |
| Poster | 65-1 | 65-1 | Eoin Harty | 3rd Sam F. Davis, TAM |
| Aviator Gui | 66-1 | 55-1 | Chad Brown | 2nd Remsen (G2), AQU |
| Sand Devil | 66-1 | 55-1 | Linda Rice | 2nd Gotham (G3), AQU |
| Hypnus | 70-1 | 75-1 | Kenny McPeek | 7th Rebel (G2), OP |
| Authentic Strike | 75-1 | 75-1 | Rodolphe Brisset | 3rd alw OC, FG |
| Jonathan's Way | 75-1 | 75-1 | Phil Bauer | 2nd Ky. Jockey Club (G2), CD |
| Promised Gene (f) | 75-1 | 100-1 | Yuki Uehara | 2nd Hyacinth, TOK |
| Clock Tower (g) | 80-1 | 80-1 | Wesley Ward | 4th Robert B. Lewis (G3), SA |
| San Saba | 80-1 | 80-1 | Bob Baffert | 1st MSW, SA |
| Tip Top Thomas | 80-1 | 60-1 | Todd Pletcher | 2nd Champagne (G1), BAQ |
| Baby Max | 85-1 | 85-1 | Kelsey Danner | 2nd Battaglia Mem., TP (t) |
| California Burrito | 85-1 | 85-1 | Tommy Drury | 1st Battaglia Mem., TP (t) |
| Charlie's to Blame | 85-1 | Peter Eurton | 1st Kitten's Joy, GP (t) | |
| Publisher | 85-1 | 85-1 | Steve Asmussen | 4th Rebel (G2), OP |
| Shin Believe | 85-1 | 60-1 | Hideyuki Mori | 7th allowance, TOK |
| Vassimo | 85-1 | 85-1 | Todd Pletcher | 4th Risen Star (G2), FG |
| Clever Again | 88-1 | 75-1 | Steve Asmussen | 1st MSW, OP |
| Praetor | 88-1 | Chad Brown | 1st MSW, BAQ | |
| Burning Glory | 90-1 | 90-1 | Bill Mott | 3rd Holy Bull (G3), GP |
| Hill Road | 90-1 | Adrian Murray | 3rd BC Juvenile, DMR | |
| Neoequos | 90-1 | 150-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | 3rd Fountain of Youth (G2), GP |
| Donut God | 95-1 | 75-1 | Brian Lynch | 1st Inaugural, TAM |
| Filoso | 95-1 | 85-1 | Chad Summers | 6th Ky. Jockey Club (G2), CD |
| Statesman | 95-1 | Shug McGaughey | 1st alw OC, TAM | |
| Authentic Gallop | 100-1 | 100-1 | Tom Amoss | 1st alw OC, OP |
| Gosger | 100-1 | 100-1 | Brendan Walsh | 1st MSW, GP |
| Grayscale | 100-1 | 100-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | 5th Swale, GP |
| Naughty Rascal | 100-1 | 100-1 | Gerald Bennett | 6th Sam F. Davis, TAM |
| Rapture | 100-1 | 100-1 | Brad Cox | 1st MSW, OP |
| Render Judgment | 100-1 | 100-1 | Kenny McPeek | 8th Risen Star (G2), FG |
| Shea Brennan | 100-1 | 100-1 | Phil D'Amato | 2nd Cal Cup Derby, SA |
| Smoken Wicked | 100-1 | 100-1 | Dallas Stewart | 13th Rebel (G2), OP |
| Speed King | 100-1 | 100-1 | Ron Moquett | 10th Rebel (G2), OP |
| Studlydoright | 100-1 | 100-1 | Jerry Robb | 5th Battaglia Mem., TP (t) |
| Tiztastic | 100-1 | 100-1 | Steve Asmussen | 5th Rebel (G2), OP |
| Uncle Jim | 100-1 | 100-1 | Brad Cox | 1st OC, AQU |
| Surfside Moon | 110-1 | 125-1 | Chuckie Lawrence | 2nd Withers, AQU |
| Kale's Angel | 125-1 | 125-1 | Peter Miller | 1st Renaissance, OP |
| Treaty of Rome | 125-1 | 125-1 | Chad Brown | 9th Sam F. Davis, TAM |
| Bold Fortune (g) | 150-1 | 150-1 | George Weaver | 1st NYSSS Gr. Wh. Way, AQU |
| Giocoso | 150-1 | 150-1 | Keith Desormeaux | 12th Risen Star (G2), FG |
| Omaha Omaha | 150-1 | 150-1 | Michael Gorham | 3rd Withers, AQU |
| Innovator | 175-1 | 175-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | 12th Rebel (G2), OP |
| McKinzie Street | 175-1 | 175-1 | Justin Evans | 5th San Vicente (G2), SA |
| Myriad Love | 175-1 | 175-1 | Koichi Shintani | 1st Nisai Yushun (G1), KAW |
| American Promise | 200-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | 5th Risen Star (G2), FG | |
| Touchy | 300-1 | 200-1 | Wesley Ward | 3rd Sunland Derby, SUN |
| Yinzer | 300-1 | 200-1 | Steve Asmussen | 1st MSW, FG |
| f - filly | ||||
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| s - synthetic | ||||
| t - turf |