Kentucky Derby odds: Las Vegas books mirror morning line
Zandon’s role as the morning-line favorite for the 2022 Kentucky Derby was regarded as a surprise to anyone who has watched Epicenter rise to the top of the Nevada futures during the winter. But at least one Las Vegas oddsmaker saw it coming.
“I did make Zandon and Epicenter co-favorites,” said Paul Zilm, who writes the Derby odds for Circa Sports. “The straddle between the two was shrinking over the last week.”
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Zilm was not alone. The three Las Vegas casinos that reopened their Derby markets after Monday’s draw made Zandon, the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) winner, the consensus favorite. He was best-priced at more than 9-2 (plus 490) at Circa, the same odds as Epicenter, who finished first in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Caesars Sports at William Hill Nevada priced each horse at 7-2. The Westgate Superbook made Zandon its 3-1 favorite; Epicenter reopened at 4-1.
At Churchill Downs, Zandon was made the 3-1 favorite on oddsmaker Mike Battaglia’s morning line, which estimates what the post-time pari-mutuel odds will be. Battaglia made Epicenter the 7-2 second choice.
The post-draw markets at all three racebooks are separate from the futures that have been open since last fall at Circa and Caesars at William Hill and since early this spring at the Westgate. That does not mean the exposure disappeared from the old bets dating as far back as October.
“I look at both pools kind of as one liability,” Zilm said. “But yes, technically, they are two different pools with different stipulations.”
A big one now is that any horse bet since the draw is not action unless he starts the race. Before the draw, bets were immediate action – and were immediate losers once a horse did not make it into the 20-horse field.
Circa also reposted “no” odds for most of the Derby field, setting prices to lay that a given horse will not win Saturday. Zandon and Epicenter reopened at minus 675, meaning it would cost $675 to make $100 if either horse were to lose the Derby. The shortest “no” odds are with Classic Causeway, for whom it costs $8,000 to make $100.
Caesars at William Hill kept its odds against a Triple Crown winner at 13-2 with the no option staying at 1-10.
These Las Vegas fixed-odds markets will run concurrently with worldwide pari-mutuels, which are open again to Nevada bettors after an impasse-ending deal was reached last week between the casinos and Churchill Downs Inc.
Following is the morning line from Churchill Downs shown with the reopened Las Vegas odds for each Derby horse:
| PP | Kentucky Derby futures | CD | Circa | C-WH | WG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mo Donegal | 10-1 | 10-1 | 12-1 | 14-1 |
| 2 | Happy Jack | 30-1 | 90-1 | 50-1 | 40-1 |
| 3 | Epicenter | +350 | +490 | +350 | +400 |
| 4 | Summer Is Tomorrow | 30-1 | 80-1 | 75-1 | 40-1 |
| 5 | Smile Happy | 20-1 | 17-1 | 15-1 | 20-1 |
| 6 | Messier | +800 | +625 | +700 | 10-1 |
| 7 | Crown Pride | 20-1 | 33-1 | 20-1 | 20-1 |
| 8 | Charge It | 20-1 | 17-1 | 14-1 | 25-1 |
| 9 | Tiz the Bomb | 30-1 | 25-1 | 25-1 | 30-1 |
| 10 | Zandon | +300 | +490 | +350 | +300 |
| 11 | Pioneer of Medina | 30-1 | 40-1 | 35-1 | 40-1 |
| 12 | Taiba | 12-1 | +725 | +800 | +700 |
| 13 | Simplification | 20-1 | 30-1 | 28-1 | 25-1 |
| 14 | Barber Road | 30-1 | 45-1 | 35-1 | 30-1 |
| 15 | White Abarrio | 10-1 | 12-1 | 12-1 | 10-1 |
| 16 | Cyberknife | 20-1 | 19-1 | 16-1 | 20-1 |
| 17 | Classic Causeway | 30-1 | 50-1 | 32-1 | 40-1 |
| 18 | Tawny Port | 30-1 | 90-1 | 50-1 | 40-1 |
| 19 | Zozos | 20-1 | 25-1 | 25-1 | 25-1 |
| 20 | Ethereal Road | 30-1 | 92-1 | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| 21 | Rich Strike | 30-1 | |||
| 22 | Rattle N Roll | 30-1 | |||
| CD: Churchill Downs morning line | |||||
| Circa: Circa Sports | |||||
| C-WH: Caesars at William Hill | |||||
| WG: Westgate Superbook |