Kentucky Derby odds: Journalism is atop the last 39 in futures
Every spring the Kentucky Derby futures market is a lot like the TV show “Survivor.” It turns into a process of elimination with each major prep race.
This week’s episode is the rite of passage, where the finalists walk past the torches belonging to the eliminated contestants. California Burrito, Cyclone State, Disco Time, Magnitude and Speed King all won points preps. So did Jonathan’s Way long ago in September. And of course there were the much-celebrated Cornucopian and former favorite Barnes, that pair who came with all the anticipation of trainer Bob Baffert’s return to the Derby.
When they were in winner’s circles, those names represented perceived value and long-range hope. Now their tickets are worthless reminders of how tough Derby futures are to play.
It seems to get easier now with Journalism the acclaimed favorite and a virtual yes-or-no proposition. After he closed Saturday at 5-1 in the final pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager from Churchill Downs, he won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and shortened from 7-1 to 7-2 in Nevada fixed odds.
Races in the past week moved the needle considerably. Rodríguez won the Wood Memorial (G2) on Saturday at Aqueduct, and he plunged from 50-1 to 16-1 in Las Vegas. Now regarded by bettors’ consensus as Baffert’s best chance to win the Derby, he has KDFW backers salivating after he closed at 62-1.
Admire Daytona, the Japan colt who arrives in Kentucky on Wednesday, was there for the taking at 250-1 last week. Since he won the UAE Derby (G2) at Meydan, he was cut to 80-1 in Nevada and was one of the all others in the KDFW mutuel play at 26-1.
Conversely, those 19-1 pari-mutuel slips with Chancer McPatrick on them look tattered after he finished in a dead heat for last Tuesday in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland. Las Vegas moved him from 33-1 to 75-1. At least that price is still there if there are any takers.
Between Caesars Sportsbook and the Westgate Superbook, there were 39 horses showing Wednesday morning in the futures available to Nevada bettors and out-of-state players using licensed proxies. The horses are listed in order of their best fixed-odds prices in bold. Their closing KDFW pari-mutuel odds also are shown.
| Kentucky Derby | Caesars | Westgate | KDFW | Last race |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Journalism | +350 | 3-1 | 5-1 | 1st Santa Anita Derby (G1), SA |
| Sandman | +425 | 10-1 | 9-1 | 1st Arkansas Derby (G1), OP |
| Sovereignty | 10-1 | 7-1 | 9-1 | 2nd Florida Derby (G1), GP |
| Burnham Square (g) | 9-1 | 14-1 | 31-1 | 1st Blue Grass (G1), KEE |
| Luxor Café | 12-1 | 14-1 | 19-1 | 1st Fukuryu, NAK |
| American Promise | 15-1 | 10-1 | 23-1 | 1st Virginia Derby, CNL |
| Rodríguez | 15-1 | 16-1 | 62-1 | 1st Wood Memorial (G2), AQU |
| Tappan Street | 16-1 | 10-1 | 14-1 | 1st Florida Derby (G1), GP |
| East Avenue | 25-1 | 25-1 | 45-1 | 2nd Blue Grass (G1), KEE |
| Citizen Bull | 28-1 | 18-1 | 8-1 | 4th Santa Anita Derby (G1), SA |
| Coal Battle | 28-1 | 20-1 | 25-1 | 3rd Arkansas Derby (G1), OP |
| Tiztastic | 25-1 | 30-1 | 22-1 | 1st Louisiana Derby (G2), FG |
| Grande | 35-1 | 30-1 | 46-1 | 2nd Wood Memorial (G2), AQU |
| Publisher | 35-1 | 40-1 | 33-1 | 2nd Arkansas Derby (G1), OP |
| River Thames | 40-1 | 40-1 | 49-1 | 3rd Blue Grass (G1), KEE |
| Final Gambit | 45-1 | 30-1 | 30-1 | 1st Jeff Ruby (G3), TP (s) |
| Baeza | 20-1 | 50-1 | 53-1 | 2nd Santa Anita Derby (G1), SA |
| Chunk of Gold | 58-1 | 50-1 | 60-1 | 2nd Louisiana Derby (G2), FG |
| Barnes | 60-1 | 16-1 | 5th Santa Anita Derby (G1), SA | |
| Getaway Car | 60-1 | *26-1 | 4th Virginia Derby, CNL | |
| Owen Almighty | 40-1 | 60-1 | 48-1 | 6th Blue Grass (G1), KEE |
| Sand Devil | 66-1 | 124-1 | 6th Wood Memorial (G2), AQU | |
| Statesman | 66-1 | 95-1 | 8th Wood Memorial (G2), AQU | |
| Chancer McPatrick | 75-1 | 60-1 | 19-1 | 6th Blue Grass (G1), KEE |
| Admire Daytona | 80-1 | 50-1 | *26-1 | 1st UAE Derby (G2), MEY |
| Built | 80-1 | 80-1 | 139-1 | 5th Louisiana Derby (G2), FG |
| Burning Glory | 85-1 | *26-1 | 3rd Holy Bull (G3), GP | |
| Hill Road | 95-1 | 96-1 | 3rd Tampa Bay Derby (G3), TAM | |
| Captain Cook | 55-1 | 100-1 | 34-1 | 4th Wood Memorial (G2), AQU |
| Flood Zone | 60-1 | 100-1 | 46-1 | 7th UAE Derby (G2), MEY |
| Flying Mohawk | 80-1 | 100-1 | 140-1 | 2nd Jeff Ruby (G3), TP (s) |
| John Hancock | 100-1 | *26-1 | 4th Louisiana Derby (G2), FG | |
| Madaket Road | 80-1 | 100-1 | 127-1 | 4th Florida Derby (G1), GP |
| Neoequos | 50-1 | 100-1 | *26-1 | 3rd Florida Derby (G1), GP |
| Poster | 125-1 | *26-1 | 4th Jeff Ruby (G3), TP (s) | |
| Admiral Dennis | 150-1 | 75-1 | 4th Blue Grass (G1), KEE | |
| Don In the Mood | 150-1 | *26-1 | 3rd UAE Derby (G2), MEY | |
| Heart of Honor | 200-1 | *26-1 | 2nd UAE Derby (G2), MEY | |
| Render Judgment | 200-1 | 225-1 | 5th Blue Grass (G1), KEE | |
| *KDFW mutuel field | ||||
| g - gelding | ||||
| s - synthetic | ||||
| t - turf | ||||
| Dropped | ||||
| Authentic Strike | 3rd alw OC, FG | |||
| Bold Fortune (g) | 1st NYSSS Gr. Wh. Way, AQU | |||
| Bullard | 3rd San Vicente (G2), SA | |||
| Caldera | 158-1 | 8th Louisiana Derby (G2), FG | ||
| California Burrito | 7th Jeff Ruby (G3), TP (s) | |||
| Clock Tower (g) | 8th Transylvania (G3), KEE (t) | |||
| Cyclone State | 9th Saudi Derby (G3), KAR | |||
| Dragon | 244-1 | 6th UAE Derby (G2), MEY | ||
| Grayscale | 5th Swale, GP | |||
| Gunmetal | 3rd Swale, GP | |||
| Instant Replay | 3rd Louisiana Derby (G2), FG | |||
| Jonathan's Way | 2nd Ky. Jockey Club (G2), CD | |||
| Maximum Promise | 3rd Jeff Ruby (G3), TP (s) | |||
| McAfee | 162-1 | 5th Wood Memorial (G2), AQU | ||
| My Mitole | 330-1 | 10th Wood Memorial (G2), AQU | ||
| Omaha Omaha | 180-1 | 9th Wood Memorial (G2), AQU | ||
| Passion Rules | 152-1 | 3rd Wood Memorial (G2), AQU | ||
| Praetor | 1st alw OC, GP | |||
| Romanesque | 2nd San Vicente (G2), SA | |||
| Shea Brennan | 2nd Cal Cup Derby, SA | |||
| Shin Believe | 7th allowance, TOK | |||
| Shin Forever | 487-1 | 4th UAE Derby (G2), MEY | ||
| Surfside Moon | 2nd Withers, AQU | |||
| Tiger Twenty Four | 285-1 | 7th Wood Memorial (G2), AQU | ||
| Vassimo | 6th Louisiana Derby (G2), FG | |||
| Westwood | 3rd Santa Anita Derby (G1), SA |