Kentucky Derby odds: Vegas has Fierceness as slight favorite
With diametrically opposite styles in recent $1 million races, Grade 1 winners Fierceness and Sierra Leone made the biggest impression on futures bettors and bookmakers in Nevada. By the slightest of margins, Fierceness is the Las Vegas favorite to win Kentucky Derby 2024.
Measuring their best odds, they were the joint top choices Monday morning at 7-2, the odds they carried at Caesars Sportsbook. They were as short as 11-4 or plus 275 at the Westgate Superbook.
Fierceness closes as Kentucky Derby pari-mutuel favorite.
It is at Circa Sports in downtown Las Vegas where Fierceness held the narrow edge. There he was a flat 3-1 on Monday compared with Sierra Leone’s 13-4 or plus 325.
Because Caesars and Circa have been taking action on the Derby since late fall, their liability from months of wagers contributes as much or more of an influence on the odds as any impression made by the horses’ latest performances. Recency bias has been more influential at the Westgate, which opened its futures only last Sunday.
Fierceness made his lasting impression with a front-running, 13 1/2-length score nine days ago in the Florida Derby (G1). Sierra Leone, who got ornery loading into the gate Saturday, left his mark when he rallied from next-to-last place in the Blue Grass (G1).
How bettors differentiate between those two distinctly different images remained a question even after the final pool of the pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager run nationally by Churchill Downs. Because it closed shortly before Saturday’s final major preps, Fierceness was left to be the clear 5-2 favorite. Sierra Leone closed at 7-1 before his deep-closing triumph at Keeneland.
Hindsight might not be profitable, but it is fascinating to know Fierceness opened at 100-1 on Nov. 3 at Caesars and was available at 18-1 less than a month ago at Circa. Sierra Leone opened at 150-1 on Nov. 24 at Caesars and was 20-1 barely six weeks ago at Circa.
| Fierceness | Sierra Leone | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars | Circa | Westgate | KDFW | Caesars | Circa | Westgate | KDFW | |
| 29-1 | Nov. 2 | |||||||
| 100-1 | Nov. 3 | |||||||
| 15-1 | Nov. 24 | 150-1 | ||||||
| 8-1 | Nov. 26 | 36-1 | ||||||
| 15-1 | 12-1 | Dec. 6 | 75-1 | 50-1 | ||||
| 15-1 | 20-1 | Dec. 13 | 65-1 | 40-1 | ||||
| 15-1 | 13-1 | Dec. 20 | 65-1 | 37-1 | ||||
| 15-1 | 13-1 | Dec. 26 | 30-1 | 37-1 | ||||
| 15-1 | 13-1 | Jan. 3 | 30-1 | 32-1 | ||||
| 15-1 | 13-1 | Jan. 8 | 18-1 | 32-1 | ||||
| 15-1 | 13-1 | Jan. 16 | 18-1 | 20-1 | ||||
| 8-1 | Jan. 21 | 13-1 | ||||||
| 12-1 | 9-1 | Jan. 24 | 18-1 | 20-1 | ||||
| 8-1 | 9-1 | Jan. 31 | 15-1 | 20-1 | ||||
| 10-1 | 13-1 | Feb. 7 | 15-1 | 16-1 | ||||
| 10-1 | 15-1 | Feb. 14 | +950 | 18-1 | ||||
| 6-1 | Feb. 18 | 16-1 | ||||||
| 5-1 | 7-1 | Feb. 21 | 12-1 | 20-1 | ||||
| 12-1 | +1850 | Feb. 28 | 5-1 | 8-1 | ||||
| 12-1 | 18-1 | Mar. 6 | 5-1 | +860 | ||||
| 12-1 | 18-1 | Mar. 13 | 5-1 | 8-1 | ||||
| 9-1 | Mar. 17 | 7-1 | ||||||
| 12-1 | 14-1 | Mar. 20 | 5-1 | 8-1 | ||||
| +850 | 8-1 | Mar. 27 | 5-1 | 8-1 | ||||
| 7-2 | +325 | 3-1 | Apr. 1 | +750 | 9-1 | 10-1 | ||
| 5-2 | Sat. | 7-1 | ||||||
| 7-2 | 3-1 | +275 | Mon. | 7-2 | +325 | +275 |
The process of elimination led to a cull of the Nevada wagering herd during the weekend from 86 to 31 individual choices. Caesars was showing 25 on Monday morning, Circa had 27 and the Westgate 26.
These were the horses showing on the Nevada betting apps Monday for Kentucky Derby 2024 along with the closing win odds for the 39 choices in pool 6 of the KDFW. They are listed in order of their best prices indicated in bold type.
| Kentucky Derby 2024 | Caesars | Circa | Westgate | KDFW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fierceness | 7-2 | 3-1 | +275 | 5-2 |
| Sierra Leone | 7-2 | +325 | +275 | 7-1 |
| Forever Young | 10-1 | 10-1 | 10-1 | 8-1 |
| Catching Freedom | 12-1 | 8-1 | 10-1 | 12-1 |
| Dornoch | 10-1 | 12-1 | 8-1 | 12-1 |
| Just a Touch | 20-1 | 20-1 | 20-1 | 22-1 |
| All other 3-yr-olds* | 22-1 | |||
| Tuscan Sky | 24-1 | |||
| Honor Marie | 10-1 | 15-1 | 20-1 | 26-1 |
| Just Steel | 35-1 | 25-1 | 25-1 | 30-1 |
| Mystik Dan | 16-1 | 15-1 | 18-1 | 35-1 |
| Stronghold | 25-1 | 35-1 | 20-1 | 30-1 |
| Deterministic | 35-1 | 20-1 | 40-1 | 12-1 |
| Domestic Product | 26-1 | 18-1 | 20-1 | 40-1 |
| Seize the Grey | 42-1 | |||
| Endlessly | 50-1 | 20-1 | 37-1 | |
| Be You | 52-1 | |||
| Track Phantom | 20-1 | 15-1 | 30-1 | 53-1 |
| Resilience | 20-1 | 35-1 | 76-1 | |
| Top Conor | 80-1 | |||
| Catalytic | 75-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 | 99-1 |
| Tuscan Gold | 100-1 | |||
| El Grande O | 100-1 | 117-1 | ||
| West Saratoga | 40-1 | 75-1 | 80-1 | 121-1 |
| T O Password | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 | 135-1 |
| Evening News | 147-1 | |||
| Good Money | 157-1 | |||
| Grand Mo the First | 125-1 | 125-1 | 100-1 | 179-1 |
| Mc Vay | 194-1 | |||
| Uncle Heavy | 125-1 | 200-1 | 72-1 | |
| Hades (g) | 75-1 | 150-1 | 200-1 | 92-1 |
| Nash | 200-1 | |||
| No More Time | 60-1 | 75-1 | 80-1 | 277-1 |
| Tapalo | 294-1 | |||
| Lat Long | 322-1 | |||
| Encino | 350-1 | 300-1 | 63-1 | |
| Common Defense | 65-1 | 400-1 | 300-1 | 234-1 |
| Epic Ride | 125-1 | 400-1 | 156-1 | |
| Merit | 478-1 | |||
| Lucky Jeremy | 500-1 | 500-1 | ||
| Liberal Arts | 500-1 | |||
| Tessuto (r) | 516-1 | |||
| Society Man (g) | 100-1 | 50-1 | 793-1 | |
| *KDFW only | ||||
| g - gelding | ||||
| r - ridgling |