Kentucky Derby odds: Exit of Baffert horses shakes up futures
Even as consensus favorite Fierceness stands on the verge of his 3-year-old debut this weekend, it is the absence of 14 horses from the stable of ineligible trainer Bob Baffert that stands out in updated Las Vegas futures for Kentucky Derby 2024.
Baffert told the Los Angeles Times on Monday that none of his horses would be transferred by their owners to trainers who are eligible for the Derby. That led to their being dropped immediately from the Nevada fixed-odds market. It also created a ripple effect.
Report: Baffert horses will stay put and out of Derby.
“Didn’t anticipate this,” said Paul Bach, who writes the racing futures for Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada. “That’s why I had to adjust the odds on 20 horses.”
Among them was Fierceness, the Eclipse Award winner who will be favored to win for trainer Todd Pletcher on Saturday in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park and mathematically clinch his place in the May 4 classic at Churchill Downs. Caesars took him from a 12-1 joint favorite to its sole, 8-1 top choice.
Rival sportsbook Circa, based in downtown Las Vegas, held Fierceness firm as its 9-1 favorite.
“I did start to get a sense there would be few if any horses transferred,” said Paul Zilm, the racing oddsmaker at Circa. “Our pricing was mostly in line. I made small adjustments (Monday) when the news broke, and we removed the Baffert horses. Those moves did not involve Fierceness, Dornoch or Sierra Leone, who are still all priced where they were the last few days.”
The dropping of the Baffert horses created an early win for the bookmakers. Nysos, the likely favorite Saturday for the Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita, was 23-1 last week at Circa and 15-1 at Caesars. Muth, whom Baffert told the Times would be pointed to the Rebel (G2) on Feb. 24 at Oaklawn, was 28-1 at Circa and 12-1 at Caesars.
Asked how much of the Caesars pool was invested in Baffert horses, Bach said, “I’m going to say about 15 percent. ... The biggest liability was on Nysos and then Pilot Commander. After that it was spread out pretty evenly.”
Pilot Commander, who was 35-1 at Caesars and 60-1 at Circa, was considered a possibility by the Santa Anita racing office for the Bob Lewis but was not entered into the race.
“We wrote a good amount of money and tickets on Nysos, Muth and Maymun,” Zilm said at Circa. “The others drew a little attention but not a ton.”
| Baffert horses dropped | Caesars | Circa |
|---|---|---|
| Nysos | 15-1 | 23-1 |
| Muth | 12-1 | 28-1 |
| Maymun | 30-1 | 28-1 |
| Pilot Commander | 35-1 | 60-1 |
| Coach Prime | 60-1 | 100-1 |
| Mirahmadi | 100-1 | |
| Prince of Monaco | 75-1 | 120-1 |
| Heartland | 125-1 | 150-1 |
| Wine Me Up | 125-1 | 150-1 |
| Imagination | 125-1 | 200-1 |
| Wynstock | 85-1 | 250-1 |
| Beneficial (g) | 350-1 | |
| Ultra Power | 125-1 | 350-1 |
| Urban Legend | 350-1 | |
| g - gelding |
Maymun, whose debut win Jan. 20 at Santa Anita earned him a 94 Beyer Speed Figure, according to Daily Racing Form, was 28-1 at Circa and 30-1 at Caesars.
Bach cut the odds for 20 of the top 22 choices at Caesars. Zilm shortened only seven of Circa’s top 15. Locked, whom Pletcher told Horse Racing Nation would make his 2024 debut at the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, went from 20-1 to 17-1 at Circa and from 22-1 to 15-1 at Caesars.
“Being more than three months out, there is still so much time,” Zilm said. “Results on the track will start to sort themselves out. Undoubtedly, there will be some injuries along the way, too, so at this point, we will continue on as I believe we normally would.”
Baffert was suspended indefinitely by Churchill Downs Inc. after a positive drug test led to the disqualification of Medina Spirit as the 2021 Derby winner. In 2022 and 2023 some of his clients moved their horses to eligible trainers, mostly to his former assistant Tim Yakteen.
Now that Baffert has declared his horses will not be on the move this spring, Zilm said there may be a certain stability that comes over the Derby market.
“For the first time in three years we won’t have to wait longer into the prep season to find out on any transfers,” he said. “For the purposes of futures, I think that’s a good thing.”
Despite his not being eligible for Derby qualifying, Baffert will continue to enter his horses in preps such as the Holy Bull and Bob Lewis this weekend. Bach suggested that points that would be vacated by Baffert horses could lead to a Kentucky Derby winner carrying long odds May 4.
“Looks like,” Bach said, “we have a good shot at another Rich Strike.”
These were the odds showing Wednesday morning for the 217 horses available to Nevada bettors in the Kentucky Derby 2024 futures at Caesars Sportsbook and Circa Sports. They are listed in order of their best odds.
| Kentucky Derby 2024 | Caesars | Circa | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fierceness | 8-1 | 9-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Dornoch | 10-1 | 13-1 | Danny Gargan |
| Locked | 15-1 | 17-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Sierra Leone | 15-1 | 20-1 | Chad Brown |
| El Capi | 22-1 | Rick Dutrow | |
| Track Phantom | 15-1 | 25-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| Knightsbridge | 22-1 | 27-1 | Bill Mott |
| Snead | 28-1 | 25-1 | Brendan Walsh |
| Forever Young | 30-1 | Yoshito Yahagi | |
| Timberlake | 25-1 | 32-1 | Brad Cox |
| Hall of Fame | 30-1 | 35-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| Book’em Danno (g) | 25-1 | 40-1 | Derek Ryan |
| Carbone | 40-1 | 30-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| Conquest Warrior | 30-1 | 40-1 | Shug McGaughey |
| Resilience | 40-1 | 40-1 | Bill Mott |
| Born Noble | 45-1 | 30-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Nash | 30-1 | 45-1 | Brad Cox |
| Catching Freedom | 50-1 | 50-1 | Brad Cox |
| Honor Marie | 50-1 | 30-1 | Whit Beckman |
| The Wine Steward | 40-1 | 50-1 | Mike Maker |
| Just a Touch | 60-1 | 30-1 | Brad Cox |
| Otello | 50-1 | 60-1 | Christophe Clément |
| Air of Defiance | 75-1 | Brad Cox | |
| Parchment Party | 75-1 | Bill Mott | |
| Ethan Energy | 75-1 | 80-1 | Brad Cox |
| Tuscan Sky | 80-1 | 90-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Ari’s Magic | 100-1 | Christophe Clément | |
| Bergen | 100-1 | 85-1 | Brad Cox |
| Cardinale | 100-1 | Todd Pletcher | |
| Crushed It | 100-1 | 100-1 | Brad Cox |
| Imperial Gun | 100-1 | 100-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| Just Steel | 100-1 | 85-1 | D. Wayne Lukas |
| Liberal Arts | 100-1 | 100-1 | Robbie Medina |
| Pirate | 100-1 | Todd Pletcher | |
| Risk It | 100-1 | 75-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| Stronghold | 90-1 | 100-1 | Phil D’Amato |
| Amante Bianco | 125-1 | Keisuke Miyata | |
| Domestic Product | 125-1 | 125-1 | Chad Brown |
| Informed Patriot | 100-1 | 125-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| Lat Long | 125-1 | Kenny McPeek | |
| Molly’s Town (g) | 125-1 | Genaro García | |
| Otto the Conqueror | 125-1 | 90-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| Pass the Hat | 125-1 | Tom Amoss | |
| Rocketeer | 125-1 | 90-1 | Brad Cox |
| Scatify | 125-1 | 125-1 | John Sadler |
| Seize the Grey | 100-1 | 125-1 | D. Wayne Lukas |
| Speak Easy | 125-1 | 85-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Stretch Ride | 85-1 | 125-1 | Dale Romans |
| Turn Up the Trees | 125-1 | Todd Pletcher | |
| Better Than Gold | 150-1 | 150-1 | Gary Mandella |
| Change of Command | 75-1 | 150-1 | Shug McGaughey |
| Common Defense | 125-1 | 150-1 | Kenny McPeek |
| Coulditbemajic | 150-1 | Terry Brennan | |
| Deterministic | 150-1 | 85-1 | Christophe Clément |
| Fifth Avenue | 150-1 | Riley Mott | |
| General Partner | 125-1 | 150-1 | Chad Brown |
| Generous Tipper | 150-1 | Kenny McPeek | |
| Gold Sweep | 150-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Maycocks Bay | 150-1 | Michael Stidham | |
| Merit | 150-1 | 100-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. |
| My Boy Prince | 150-1 | Mark Casse | |
| Next Level | 150-1 | Keith Desormeaux | |
| Rathmore | 150-1 | Tom Albertrani | |
| Real Men Violin | 100-1 | 150-1 | Kenny McPeek |
| Rhyme Schemes | 85-1 | 150-1 | Norm Casse |
| Secret Chat | 150-1 | Roderick Rodríguez | |
| The Big Torpedo | 150-1 | Tom Morley | |
| Time for Truth | 150-1 | 90-1 | Ron Moquett |
| Union Roll | 150-1 | Todd Pletcher | |
| Vote No | 150-1 | Billy Morey | |
| Wilson Q | 150-1 | Doug O’Neill | |
| Wind Rider | 150-1 | Rusty Arnold | |
| Be You | 150-1 | 160-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Kitty Hawk (g) | 160-1 | Vicki Oliver | |
| Alder (g) | 175-1 | Brad Cox | |
| Awesome Road | 150-1 | 175-1 | Brad Cox |
| Balta | 175-1 | Paulo Lobo | |
| Catire Vizcaya | 175-1 | Juan Carlos Ávila | |
| Edified | 175-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Frankie’s Empire | 175-1 | Susan Crowell | |
| Good Money | 150-1 | 175-1 | Chad Brown |
| Hades (g) | 175-1 | Joe Orseno | |
| Lightline | 65-1 | 175-1 | Brad Cox |
| Billal | 175-1 | 200-1 | Bill Mott |
| Booth | 150-1 | 200-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| Commissioner Dan | 200-1 | Pavel Matejka | |
| Crimson Light | 200-1 | Todd Pletcher | |
| Dancing Groom | 100-1 | 200-1 | Antonio Sano |
| Divieto | 200-1 | Antonio Sano | |
| Encino | 200-1 | Brad Cox | |
| Glengarry | 150-1 | 200-1 | Doug Anderson |
| Go Otto Go | 200-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Going Mobile | 200-1 | Steve Knapp | |
| Hawks Creek | 200-1 | Keith Desormeaux | |
| Hop Sing | 200-1 | José D’Angelo | |
| Joe’s Candy | 200-1 | Gary Mandella | |
| Legalize | 110-1 | 200-1 | Cherie DeVaux |
| Mary’s Boy Bolt | 200-1 | Mick Ruis | |
| Moonlight | 100-1 | 200-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Mystik Dan | 125-1 | 200-1 | Kenny McPeek |
| Noted | 150-1 | 200-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Nutella Fella | 125-1 | 200-1 | Gary Contessa |
| Orange Diablo | 150-1 | 200-1 | Brad Cox |
| Roar Ready | 200-1 | Ruben Sierra | |
| Tennessee | 200-1 | Brad Cox | |
| The Donegal Clan | 200-1 | Dane Noel | |
| The Process | 200-1 | Cherie DeVaux | |
| West Omaha (f) | 200-1 | Brad Cox | |
| West Saratoga | 100-1 | 200-1 | Larry Demeritte |
| Bentornato | 125-1 | 225-1 | José D’Angelo |
| Can Group | 225-1 | Mark Casse | |
| Footprint | 225-1 | Kenny McPeek | |
| Bonne Chance (g) | 250-1 | Bruce Levine | |
| Call Me Andy | 250-1 | Brendan Walsh | |
| Capital Idea | 125-1 | 250-1 | Christophe Clément |
| Catalytic | 150-1 | 250-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. |
| Crazy Mason | 250-1 | 150-1 | Greg Sacco |
| Doncho (g) | 125-1 | 250-1 | Michelle Lovell |
| El Magnifico (r) | 250-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| First World War | 125-1 | 250-1 | Brendan Walsh |
| Goldbrick | 125-1 | 250-1 | Bret Calhoun |
| Inveigled | 150-1 | 250-1 | Jane Cibelli |
| Le Dom Bro | 250-1 | Antonio Sano | |
| Lucky Jeremy | 150-1 | 250-1 | Bill Morey |
| Moonlit Sonata | 200-1 | 250-1 | Tim Yakteen |
| Northern Flame | 125-1 | 250-1 | Kenny McPeek |
| Slider | 250-1 | John Sadler | |
| Tireless | 250-1 | Todd Pletcher | |
| Twenty to Park | 250-1 | Matt Shirer | |
| Raging Torrent | 200-1 | 275-1 | Doug O’Neill |
| Ridgewood Runner | 275-1 | Carlos Martín | |
| American Rascal | 200-1 | 300-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| Autie | 300-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Bartholdy | 300-1 | Simon Callaghan | |
| Crafted | 200-1 | 300-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| Django | 300-1 | Kenny McPeek | |
| General Ledger | 200-1 | 300-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. |
| Heart Headed | 300-1 | Will Walden | |
| Mission Beach | 300-1 | Brittany Russell | |
| Mosaico Man | 300-1 | Brad Cox | |
| No More Time | 150-1 | 300-1 | José D’Angelo |
| Patriot Spirit | 150-1 | 300-1 | Mike Campbell |
| Self Sufficient | 150-1 | 300-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Seminole Chief | 300-1 | Jack Sisterson | |
| Squints | 300-1 | Kelly Breen | |
| Stay Hot (r) | 300-1 | Peter Eurton | |
| Stolen Magic | 200-1 | 300-1 | Linda Rice |
| Valentine Candy | 100-1 | 300-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| Agate Road | 350-1 | Todd Pletcher | |
| Antonio of Venice | 350-1 | Rudy Rodríguez | |
| Billy the Greek (g) | 350-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | |
| El Grande O | 125-1 | 350-1 | Linda Rice |
| Gettysburg Address | 350-1 | Brad Cox | |
| Give Me a Reason | 350-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Googol Joke | 350-1 | Ignacio Correas | |
| Haul | 350-1 | Todd Pletcher | |
| Hunt Ball | 350-1 | Bill Mott | |
| Ignite the Light | 350-1 | Rick Dutrow | |
| Iridescent | 200-1 | 350-1 | Brad Cox |
| Joe Shiesty (g) | 350-1 | Eric Foster | |
| Justifreak | 350-1 | Eddie Kenneally | |
| Katheeb | 350-1 | Brendan Walsh | |
| Khanate | 350-1 | Todd Pletcher | |
| Khoolzan | 350-1 | José D’Angelo | |
| Lagynos | 350-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Magic Spoon | 350-1 | José Valdez | |
| Mattingly | 350-1 | Joe Orseno | |
| Mici’s Express | 350-1 | Steve Knapp | |
| Mikealicious | 350-1 | Mike Maker | |
| Mischief Joke | 350-1 | Mike Maker | |
| Move to Gold | 350-1 | Chad Brown | |
| Normandy Hero | 150-1 | 350-1 | Rodolphe Brisset |
| Pandagate (r) | 150-1 | 350-1 | Christophe Clément |
| Raging Fury | 350-1 | Eddie Plesa | |
| Raguel | 350-1 | Brendan Walsh | |
| Rapoport | 350-1 | Todd Pletcher | |
| Redeposit | 350-1 | Greg Foley | |
| Refocus | 350-1 | Doug O’Neill | |
| Rothschild | 350-1 | Tim Yakteen | |
| Run Jalen Run | 350-1 | Joe Sharp | |
| Sand Bagger | 350-1 | Richard Mandella | |
| Searcy (g) | 350-1 | Brad Cox | |
| Ship to Shore (g) | 350-1 | Eddie Owens Jr. | |
| Speed Runner | 350-1 | Todd Pletcher | |
| Stay on the Fence | 350-1 | Antonio García | |
| Tapalo | 350-1 | John Sadler | |
| Tejon Pass | 150-1 | 350-1 | Peter Miller |
| Texas Town | 350-1 | Chris Hartman | |
| Top Gun Rocket | 350-1 | Riley Mott | |
| Wecallemfuncoupons (g) | 350-1 | Jeffrey Englehart | |
| Who Dey | 125-1 | 350-1 | Tommy Drury |
| Works for Me | 350-1 | Joe Lee | |
| Abrumar | 400-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | |
| Aggelos the Great | 400-1 | George Weaver | |
| Agoo | 250-1 | 400-1 | Whit Beckman |
| Assurbanipal | 400-1 | Hiroyasu Tanaka | |
| Beaudacious Colton | 400-1 | Jack Hancock | |
| Blown Cover | 400-1 | Brad Cox | |
| Boltage | 400-1 | Richard Mandella | |
| Bonus Move | 400-1 | Mark Hennig | |
| Carpis (g) | 400-1 | Sam David Jr. | |
| Detective Tom | 400-1 | Michelle Nevin | |
| Dr. No No | 400-1 | Brian Koriner | |
| El Dinero (g) | 400-1 | Pat Devereux | |
| Eliminate | 400-1 | Todd Pletcher | |
| Elysian Meadows | 400-1 | Bill Mott | |
| Endlessly | 400-1 | Michael McCarthy | |
| Eusebius | 400-1 | Michael McCarthy | |
| Last Call London (g) | 400-1 | Peter Miller | |
| Linebacker | 400-1 | Jordan Blair | |
| Nyquist Frequency | 400-1 | Jordan Blair | |
| Private Desire | 200-1 | 400-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Regalo | 200-1 | 400-1 | Brittany Russell |
| Saint No More | 400-1 | Daniel Pita | |
| Sea Streak (g) | 400-1 | Eddie Owens Jr. | |
| Shady Appeal | 400-1 | Jeff Bonde | |
| Yo Yo Candy | 400-1 | Danny Velázquez | |
| f - filly | |||
| g - gelding | |||
| r - ridgling |